Can Louisville football exceed expectations again? Projecting wins for Jeff Brohm Year 2
Louisville football finished the 2023 season ranked 23rd in ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The Cardinals’ strength of schedule ranked 47th as they finished 10-4. It was two more wins than the eight projected by BetMGM. In Year 2 under head coach Jeff Brohm, Louisville will face three programs for the first time ever in Austin Peay, Jacksonville State and new ACC mate Stanford.
With road games at Notre Dame and Clemson this fall, BetMGM set the Cardinals’ win total at 8 ½. Can U of L again exceed early expectations?
Here’s a game-by-game look at Louisville’s 2024 football schedule, with projections for each contest and overall win total:
Week 0: vs. Austin Peay (W, 45-10)
For the first time since 2020, Louisville will open the football season at home. That bodes well for the squad, which is 68-33-3 in home openers and 56-42-6 in season openers. Louisville should have no problem opening the season with a win over the Governors.
Week 1: vs. Jacksonville State (W, 38-21)
Jacksonville State is coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons, so don't expect the Cardinals to rout the Gamecocks at L&N Stadium. But U of L has enough experience to pull away late to start the season 2-0.
Week 2: OPEN
Week 3: vs. Georgia Tech (W, 28-14)
It occurred in dramatic fashion, but Louisville pocketed its first win over Georgia Tech last year. The victory was key for the Cardinals in the ACC standings during the final stretch of the season. Playing the Yellow Jackets in the ACC opener will once again be important for the Cardinals. But home field advantage will undoubtedly play its part for U of L, which lost just one game at L&N Stadium last year.
Week 4: at Notre Dame (L, 24-21)
Louisville will have to play at Notre Dame for the first time since 2020. The Fighting Irish won that contest, 12-7, and are 21-4 at home since the 2020 season. After getting thrashed last season in Louisville, the Fighting Irish will get their revenge at home. Expect a slugfest.
Week 5: vs. SMU (W, 38-14)
SMU will be making its debut in the ACC this season after winning the American Athletic Conference with an undefeated mark. The Mustangs have averaged 8.6 wins per season over the past five years but have gone 2-6 against Power Five teams.
Week 6: at Virginia (W, 31-28)
Louisville has won back-to-back games over Virginia and now leads the series, 7-5. While the Cardinals are 2-4 at Virginia, the Cavaliers have struggled in recent years and won’t be able to keep up with U of L.
Week 7: vs. Miami (W, 28-21)
U of L winning at Miami for the first time ever last season was a huge confidence boost for the Cardinals, as Brohm showed he could outcoach Mario Cristobal down the stretch. The Hurricanes should be better this season, but the Cards will be in front on their home crowd. Brohm will record another win over Miami, boosting U of L's resume and place in the ACC standings.
Week 8: at Boston College (L, 21-20)
For as strong as Louisville’s team should be this year, it won’t be exempt from a trap game (see: 2023 at Pitt). Playing Boston College on the road, just ahead of its contest at Clemson, will be one of those games. The Cardinals are 3-5 on the Eagles’ home field and haven’t won a game at Alumni Stadium since 2016.
Week 9: at Clemson (L, 35-21)
Clemson may have taken a step back in recent years, but it’s still a tough team to play at home. The Tigers had the nation's longest home win streak until falling to rival South Carolina in 2022. Louisville is also 0-8 against Clemson. Brohm will finally get the Cardinals a win over the Tigers, but not this season.
Week 10: OPEN
Week 11: at Stanford (W, 42-21)
Stanford is 3-16 at home over the past three seasons. That bodes well for Louisville and should translate to a fairly easy win for the Cardinals.
Week 12: vs. Pitt (W, 35-24)
Although Pitt was able to beat Louisville last year, the Panthers have fallen on hard times since winning an ACC championship in 2021. By the time Pitt comes to town, Louisville should be playing its best football.
Week 13: at Kentucky (W, 42-38)
Losing the Governor’s Cup after giving up a 24-14 lead certainly left an impression on Brohm, who was visibly upset after the defeat. That loss will be used as motivation this year as Louisville gets revenge and ends UK’s five-game win streak in the series.
2024 Projected record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)
While earning another trip to the ACC championship game will be a tall task, Louisville should be in the mix. The Cardinals will benefit from the expanded conference, which gives them Stanford and SMU instead of North Carolina and Wake Forest. But it'll be a trap game that keeps the Cardinals from reaching 10 wins for a second straight regular season.
Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville football schedule 2024: Projecting Jeff Brohm win total
