Louisville basketball's success in Year 2 under Kenny Payne hinges on protecting the rock

It took only 39 seconds Wednesday night for the most glaring issue among the many that plagued the worst Louisville men's basketball season in modern history to rear its ugly head twice, then spiral out of control.

One turnover led to another — and another and another and another and another and another and another and another and another.

And, with 9:49 to play in the first half of U of L's exhibition vs. Simmons College, the Cardinals were clinging to a 13-10 lead against a Division II program that allowed Indiana University Southeast to score 101 points in Game 1 of the 2022-23 campaign.

Louisville beat the Falcons, 91-50, behind a 24-1 run during the final 5:39 of the first half and a combined 40 points from its four-man freshman class. It proved Kenny Payne right for walking away from last week's Red and White intrasquad scrimmage thinking, "We are way further along than we were a year ago at this time."

But it also left him wondering, "Exactly how good are we?" Turnovers were a big reason why.

Payne's 2022-23 squad began its 4-28 season with a 57-47 exhibition loss to Lenoir-Rhyne of the DII ranks. It committed 16 turnovers, which the Bears converted into 15 points.

The Cards on Wednesday night coughed up possession 22 times — 13 times in the first half and nine times after the break. Simmons scored 40% of its points (20) off those miscues.

Payne did not attribute the turnovers to the nerves he saw from his players before taking the court at the KFC Yum! Center against an opponent for the first time this season. Nor did he say they were a byproduct of the platoon system he ran for most of the evening, mixing up his roster to determine whom he can count on to fight, to be disciplined, to know the plays and to execute.

The words he chose were: "carelessness" and "unforced."

"You cannot create an offense within your own mind that's not what the other four guys are doing," Payne said. "That creates a bad situation. We had a lot of that tonight."

There was a lot of that last season, too.

Averaging 14.9 turnovers per game, Louisville ranked 331st out of 352 DI teams and dead last among the Power Five conferences in 2022-23. Opponents, on average, turned those negative plays into 17.8 points per game.

There's more.

U of L ranked dead last in turnover margin (-4.8) and in assists per game (9.3), totaling just 299 on its 716 field goals. It was second to last with a 0.63 assist/turnover ratio.

Its opposition, on the other hand, averaged a 1.5 assist/turnover ratio.

Only 13 DI teams finished the 2022-23 season with better ratios; which means those who played the Cards were, on average, one of the best in the country in terms of facilitating and creating havoc on defense.

A low bar to clear — but, if Louisville is going to take a significant step forward in 2023-24, that can't happen again.

Wednesday night was a step back in that regard. U of L's 22 turnovers matched its 2022-23 season high, set during an 80-54 loss to Arkansas at the Maui Invitational.

"We can't lead the nation in turnovers," Payne said heading into the Red and White scrimmage. "That means it's not the other team that's beating you; you're beating yourself. We talked about it over and over and over again."

Until Wednesday night, Payne and his players — eight newcomers, four scholarship returners — had been optimistic about the connectedness they were seeing on the court.

When summer workouts ended in July, the coach told reporters it took this group just three days to excel at a drill in which he asks them to make nine to 10 passes without dribbling before getting into an offensive set.

The 2022-23 squad, he said, needed three months to get it looking precise.

Last season's leading playmaker, El Ellis, entered the NCAA transfer portal and landed at Arkansas after tallying 140 assists against 120 turnovers while shouldering an 89.9% minute share and a 29.9% usage rate.

The new-look Cards are hoping to be less of a one-man show.

To make that happen, Payne said he needs more players to be "willing passers," following the lead of point guard Skyy Clark, a second-year Illinois transfer who in his first U of L start Wednesday night accounted for six of the team's 13 assists.

"KP emphasizes it every day, (being) someone who's a giver — not a taker," Clark said Oct. 9. "We have a lot of those guys on the team; there's not one person on the team this year who's a selfish person or a selfish player."

Added redshirt sophomore Mike James, one of the holdovers from last season's team: "The togetherness and the chemistry is off the charts this year. I think it will show on the court, as well."

To James' point, Louisville showed more synergy during stretches of the Red-White scrimmage and the win over Simmons than it did during much of last season's 4-28 slog — between the two outings, it has totaled assists (36) on 50% of its field goals (72) ... but also 46 turnovers.

After last week's scrimmage, Payne welcomed the miscues, saying: "I want them to learn to play with freedom."

Seven days later, he changed his mind.

"How good can we be if we get a group of guys who can focus on the little things it takes to be a great team?" he said after the win over Simmons. "That’s what I’m trying to figure out."

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball: Limiting TOs will key for Kenny Payne in Year 2