Louisville basketball 10-game comparison: How Year 2 under Kenny Payne stacks up vs 2022-23
On Oct. 26, Kenny Payne said the Louisville men's basketball team had, in his eyes, "taken a major step in the right direction" after the 2022-23 season went down as the worst in modern program history.
The head coach refused to define expectations by a set number of wins in Year 2 at the helm of his alma mater. But he did say he hoped the full-scale improvements would be so obvious to anyone who tuned into the Cardinals' games that it would cultivate sustained belief in his rebuilding process.
"I want people to watch us and say, 'It looks different,'' he said. "That's why I keep talking about the eye test; 'It feels different. The energy's different.' Then, people will understand that we're headed in the right direction."
Four days later, U of L lost an exhibition to a Division II opponent, Kentucky Wesleyan, one year to the date Payne's tenure began with an exhibition loss to Lenoir-Rhyne.
And now here we are, 10 games into the 2023-24 campaign, with the most prevalent topic of conversation surrounding the program being when, not if, the 57-year-old Mississippi native will lose his job.
Louisville (4-6, 0-1 ACC) failed to surpass last season's win total with a 75-63 loss to Arkansas State on Wednesday, its 21st by double digits of Payne's tenure.
A "major step" forward? Not in the slightest.
"I think that they want to win; I think that they work hard," Payne said after losing to the Red Wolves. "But something has to happen within them to where they are able to show it."
The Cards have 21 more opportunities over the next three months to further distance themselves from that debacle of the highest order. But for now, the numbers say they're only marginally better than Payne's inaugural squad was after it ended a nine-game, season-opening losing streak with a win over Western Kentucky.
Before diving into our 10-game comparison, one final note: U of L's first 10 opponents last season had an average finish of 120th on KenPom.com's adjusted efficiency rankings. Six of those teams — Arkansas, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Maryland, Miami and Florida State — were from high-major conferences.
As of Thursday morning, this year's crop of competitors had an average ranking of 197th. Only four were from power conferences: Texas, Indiana, Virginia Tech and DePaul.
More points on the board
Louisville averaged 60.6 points on 38.7% shooting (30.3% from 3-point range) during the first 10 games of the 2022-23 season. Its average offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, which calculates how many points teams score per 100 possessions, was 87.
Only one player, El Ellis (17 points per game), was averaging double digits at the 10-game mark.
In Year 2 under Payne, the Cards are scoring 73.4 points per game on 41% shooting (26.9% from 3). Their adjusted offensive efficiency as of Thursday morning was 102.8, which ranks 215th out of 362 DI teams.
Four players are producing 10 or more points per contest: Skyy Clark (16.3), Tre White (13.1), Mike James (11.7) and JJ Traynor (10.1). Junior Brandon Huntley-Hatfield scored a career-high 20 points Wednesday, and freshman point guard Ty-Laur Johnson (9.2, 3.4 assists) injects life off the bench in a way no one could last season.
The highs have been high — see: 80 points vs. Texas in Game 1 of the Empire Classic — but the lows have been catastrophic — see: collapses against Indiana and DePaul when faced with zone defense. And the in-between moments have been more of the same — see: stagnant stretches that have allowed mid-major opponents to hang around longer than they typically would against most programs of U of L's stature.
Still, the numbers reflect improvement — some larger than others — everywhere but beyond the arc:
Offensive rebounds
2022-23: 7.9 per game
2023-24: 12.8 per game
Opponents' defensive rebounds
2022-23: 25.8 per game
2023-24: 25.8 per game
Second-chance points
2022-23: 5.7 per game
2023-24: 12.6 per game
Fouls drawn
2022-23: 17.2 per game
2023-24: 18.5 per game
Free throws made
2022-23: 13.2 per game
2023-24: 19.4 per game
Free-throw attempts
2022-23: 17.6 per game
2023-24: 26.3 per game
Assists
2022-23: 8.9 per game
2023-24: 10.1 per game
Turnovers
2022-23: 16.6 per game
2023-24: 12.6 per game
Points in the paint
2022-23: 23 per game
2023-24: 33.4 per game
Points off turnovers
2022-23: 12.4 per game
2023-24: 13.2 per game
Fast-break points
2022-23: 4.7 per game
2023-24: 5.3 per game
Bench points
2022-23: 15.9 per game
2023-24: 20.2 per game
Fewer strides defensively
The 2022-23 Cards surrendered, on average, 74.9 points on 48% shooting (34.1% from 3) during the first 10 games of the season. Their average defensive rating during that stretch was 107.4.
This year's team is giving up 74.7 points on 45% shooting (26.7% from 3). Its adjusted defensive efficiency as of Thursday morning was 105.5, which ranks 191st out of 362.
Payne is operating with the lowest possible bar to clear on this front. Louisville finished last season 312th on KenPom in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.3) and 328th in opponents' effective field-goal percentage (54.1%).
That there has been only marginal improvement, with an overhauled roster playing against a weaker nonconference schedule, is alarming. Especially when you take into account Payne making attentiveness on the defensive end a prerequisite for playing time and all that talk of being one of the most desperate units in the country.
The numbers don't add up to progress:
Defensive rebounds
2022-23: 24 per game
2023-24: 25.4 per game
Opponents' offensive rebounds
2022-23: 9.1 per game
2023-24: 10.3 per game
Second-chance points allowed
2022-23: 9.1 per game
2023-24: 10.2 per game
Paint points allowed
2022-23: 35.8 per game
2023-24: 35.8 per game
Fouls
2022-23: 16.2 per game
2023-24: 18.5 per game
Assists allowed
2022-23: 14 per game
2023-24: 13.7 per game
Turnovers forced
2022-23: 12.3 per game
2023-24: 12.4 per game
Opponents' points off turnovers
2022-23: 19.2 per game
2023-24: 15.8 per game
Fast-break points allowed
2022-23: 8.5 per game
2023-24: 7.5 per game
Blocks
2022-23: 2.4 per game
2023-24: 3.2 per game
Steals
2022-23: 4.8 per game
2023-24: 5.6 per game
Bench points allowed
2022-23: 22.4 per game
2023-24: 18.8 per game
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball: Comparing Kenny Payne's teams after 10 games
