The Loop Fantasy Football Preview: The Overrated

Aug. 20—You see it come around at this time every year on ESPN. Like clockwork. It's downright unwatchable at times, but we cannot avert our eyes from the televised banality.

We're not talking about The Ocho, which is AWESOME.

No, we're talking about the Fantasy Football Marathon, which is kind of like cow-chip tossing championships, only less athletic. Starting Tuesday night, the Worldwide Leader in Aimless Banter

spent 26 hours devoted to two major premises, both false:

Fantasy football leagues only count if they are enrolled on ESPN.com.

Nearly every NFL player is on the verge of his career-best season.

As always, ESPN kept a running count of traffic on its fantasy site. But there was no official count of players whose value was overestimated, overhyped or overblown.

So we'll offer now our two cents: Players that are very fine football players, perhaps even very fine people, but players who are not quite worthy of their current fantasy draft rankings. Draft them early at your own peril.

OVERRATED RUNNING BACKS

Jonathan Taylor, Colts — The Indianapolis sophomore suddenly became first-round material when he rushed for 253 yards, nearly 22 percent of his season total, in a Week 17 rout of lowly Jacksonville. Considering the injured state of the Colts' O-line, and the continued presence of Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack, you should pass on this former Badger until at least the middle of the second round.

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens — Dobbins got nearly 20 percent of his 805 yards in last year's finale against Cincinnati, which has the former Ohio State Buckeye leaping into the back end of Round 3. That's too early for a guy that will be sharing the Baltimore backfield with Gus Edwards, who scored six touchdowns last season and can be counted on for at least that many this year. Oh, yeah ... and Lamar Jackson will also vulture a bunch of TDs, too.

Darrell Henderson, Rams — This member of Los Angeles' backfield corps shot up the rankings the moment Cam Akers went down with a season-ending injury. That's mostly because Henderson has little competition in the Rams' backfield, not because he's particularly great. We're guessing the new Matthew Stafford-led offense will be especially pass-happy, which makes Henderson's current fifth-round status about a full round too high.

Melvin Gordon, Broncos — Rookie Javonte Williams looked like Denver's No. 1 RB even before he ran through the Vikings' scrubs last Saturday. Gordon is a bit past his expiration date, having topped 100 yards rushing in only three of his past 32 games, and his ranking has dropped into the middle rounds. Still too high. Gordon will start in a timeshare, but the former standout who sulked his way off the Chargers will likely be an ex-Bronco by this time next year.

OVERRATED RECEIVERS

Davante Adams, Packers — Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, sometimes it seems like his only target, is clearly the No. 1 wide receiver on draft boards. He was in a class by himself last season. The problem is he's ranking as high as fifth overall, and that is just too high to take any wideout. Taking Adams that early means you're passing on Derrick Henry, or Saquon Barkley, or Ezekiel Elliott. After an 18-TD season, there's no place Adams can go but down.

A.J. Brown, Titans — With apologies to Justin Jefferson, this Titan might have been the most talented rookie receiver last season. He's currently ranked among the top 10 at that position. His chances at posting those kinds of stats might have vanished the moment Tennessee traded for Julio Jones. At a minimum, the former Falcons all-pro will cut into Brown's target share in an offense built around Derrick Henry. Third round? Sure. Second round? Hmmm. ...

Odell Beckham Jr., Browns — OBJ looked great last year ... in one game against Dallas when he scored three of his four touchdowns of 2020. Then he blew out his knee. Reports say he is looking great in Browns camp, so he is rising back up into the sixth-round range. But there are plenty of safer options for your No. 3 receiver or flex slots. Wait until he proves he has regained the mojo of his Giants heyday.

Michael Thomas, Saints — Last year's No. 1 receiver has plummeted all the way down to the middle rounds because of his offseason ankle surgery, so a lot of folks are going to gamble that the mercurial receiver will be his usual self after missing a few early games. Don't do it. The only thing more fragile than Thomas' ankle is his relationship with coach Sean Payton and the Saints' brass. Let someone else draft Thomas way too early.

OVERRATED QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott, Cowboys — It's not so much the grotesque broken ankle from last year or the recent shoulder issues. The reason we won't be taking Prescott among the top five quarterbacks is there is no way he will replicate his gaudy 2020 numbers, when he topped 450 yards in three straight weeks because the Cowboys' pitiful defense forced him to. He'll be throwing less, and running less, making him less otherworldly.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles — If you're thinking of taking the Philly sophomore to be your No. 1 QB, you should first re-watch his pathetic game tape from the season finale against Washington. Completed just seven of his 20 passes. While he is an accomplished runner, that is not enough to make him a top 11 QB, which is where he is currently ranked. And the Eagles' dearth of decent receivers makes him an even more dicey pick.

Joe Burrow, Bengals — You have to admire the honesty of the Cincinnati quarterback, who admits that he's still skittish in the pocket after his season-ending knee injury of 2020. You'd be skittish, too, if you had to play behind the Bengals' offensive line. At a minimum, the former Heisman Trophy winner will be limited as a runner this year, and that makes him strictly backup fantasy QB material.

Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers — It only seems that Big Ben started his career back in the 20th century. He and the Steelers came crashing down to earth after their 11-0 start, in part because of a motley offensive line. While Roethlisberger technically could be an adequate No. 2 fantasy QB, there is virtually no upside to him. Take a shot on one of the rookies, or other youngsters like Tua Tagovailoa or Daniel Jones. Don't waste a pick on a guy that is nearly your age.

OVERRATED TIGHT ENDS

Travis Kelce, Chiefs — Now, we're not saying Kelce isn't the best tight end in football, or that you shouldn't covet his all-world skills. We're saying that using a mid-first-round pick on the now clean-shaven all-pro will deprive you of a top-tier running back, which you should never do. The drop-off is too severe after the first eight or nine RBs are off the board. Play it safe and fill your tight end hole in the late rounds, like champions do.

Robert Tonyan, Packers — There are few stats less likely to be replicated this season than this Green Bay beefcake catching another 11 touchdown passes. The former Indiana State Sycamore should be the poster child for the TD dependent. His other stats are pretty pedestrian. If you can draft him late, then fine. But do not even think about taking him in the middle rounds where he's currently ranked.

NEXT WEEK

The spirit of Nipsey Russell will be with us all on Sept. 5 when we present the "Match Game" legend's NFL preview. There will be plenty of rhyme and reason for all.

You can hear Kevin Cusick on Wednesdays on Bob Sansevere's "BS Show" podcast on iTunes. You can follow Kevin on Twitter — @theloopnow. He can be reached at kcusick@pioneerpress.com.