The looming bowl controversy which could leave USC and Pac-12 in the cold
We need to talk about a possible bowl controversy which could emerge one month from now. We’re just about to begin the month of November. In early December, the bowl selections will be revealed.
One scenario could leave USC and the Pac-12 in the lurch, and it would be one more black eye for the Trojans as they linger in the conference before moving to the Big Ten.
You probably know that one of the New Year’s Six bowl slots is reserved for the Group of Five champion, the highest-ranked conference champion from the AAC, Mountain West, C-USA, MAC, and Sun Belt.
The reason for this Group of Five slot is reasonable, obvious and good: Giving the smaller schools and conferences a big bowl game with a substantial payout. Nothing wrong with that.
However: The Group of Five is really bad this year … and that could take a New Year’s Six bowl slot from USC and the Pac-12. Let’s go through the details:
GROUP OF FIVE WEAKNESSES
The Group of Five usually has one or two very strong teams, but that isn’t the case this year. Tulane and Coastal Carolina are the only teams in Group of Five conferences with one loss through the month of October. It is just not a good year for Group of Five conferences.
COASTAL CAROLINA
The Chanticleers’ one loss was a 28-point loss to Old Dominion. That has kncoked them out of any consideration for the Group of Five spot. There’s no realistic chance Coastal can be the highest-ranked champion from one of the Group of Five conferences. Maybe Coastal can finish 12-1 and the AAC completely goes nuts, but that’s highly improbable.
CINCINNATI
The Bearcats just lost their second game of the year on Saturday to UCF. They will not have an easy time avoiding a third loss. This is a separate controversy: Imagine if UC loses a third game but still wins the AAC championship.
A 3-loss Cincinnati team getting a New Year’s Six bowl over USC or another 10-win Pac-12 team would be an embarrassment for the bowl selection process … but those are the current rules.
UCF
The Knights have two losses, but they could also get in over USC if they win the AAC championship.
BOISE STATE
Wait a minute, isn’t Boise State good? Well, the Broncos are playing great football right now, but they have two losses, and they got pounded by UTEP. The Mountain West has been bad this year. Boise State has no games which will significantly increase the Broncos’ ranking.
UTSA
The Roadrunners are the best team in Conference USA, but they have two losses as well, to Houston and Texas. Much like Boise State in the Mountain West, UTSA’s remaining opponents won’t provide a meaningful boost in the rankings.
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
Much like the Mountain West, the MAC has cannibalized itself this season. Every MAC team has at least three losses.
SAN JOSE STATE
The Spartans have two losses and barely beat a bad Nevada team on Saturday. San Jose State is very likely to lose a third game over the next month.
TULANE
This brings us to Tulane.
The Green Wave have one loss and are the current Group of Five front-runner. Tulane, however, has to play UCF and Cincinnati in November. The Green Wave might wind up playing Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks, first on Nov. 25 in the regular-season finale, then one week later in the AAC Championship Game.
THE UGLY SCENARIO
One can easily imagine a scenario in which Tulane loses at Cincinnati on Nov. 25 and then beats UC in the AAC title game. Tulane, as the AAC champion, would have two losses, one of them to Southern Mississippi at home. That 11-2 Tulane team would get preference for a New Year’s Six bowl over a 10-2 USC team or a 10-2 UCLA team.
That would be a disaster for the Pac-12.
LET'S TALK
It’s genuinely great that the Group of Five conferences get a premium New Year’s bowl bid, but in years when no Group of Five team stands out from the crowd, there needs to be a carve-out in which the G-5 doesn’t get an automatic slot.
This leads to a bigger point about the bowl selection process, which magnifies the problems with a 12-team College Football Playoff.
CFB PLAYOFF AUTOMATIC BIDS
Many people have argued that the champions of conferences deserve automatic bids to the playoff.
Well, what about a team which loses two nonconference games and goes 8-1 in conference play? That’s a three-loss team which would get into the playoff over an 11-1 second-place team from the Pac-12, SEC, or Big Ten.
That makes no sense.
INCLUDE REQUIREMENTS
Teams need to have fewer losses and more quality wins in order to merit inclusion in a playoff, just as they need to have fewer losses and good wins to be included in the playoff. College football is bad about not creating a system which elevates merit. Automatic bids leave the door open for a four-loss team to win the Big Ten, as long as it wins its division (the Big Ten West) and upsets Ohio State or Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game.
THE REMINDER
USC will probably need to go 11-1 through 12 games (winning each of its next four) in order to get a Cotton Bowl bid in the event of a loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
The same applies to UCLA.
