Longhorns Wire Top 5: Ceiling and floor for Big 12 contenders
It’s time that we discuss Big 12 teams and their ceilings and floors. Those designations are much more difficult to make for the Texas Longhorns than others.
The ceiling is always there for the Longhorns. When you recruit the high volume of talent the team recruits, there is going to be high potential. However, when you underachieve as much as Texas has over the last decade, the floor is always there, too.
I have stayed steadfast in predicting Texas will go 10-2 this season, but there’s a higher ceiling and certainly a lower floor there to be discussed. The ceiling is 12-0. It’s an unrealistic ceiling and the least likely outcome for the team from seven wins and higher. Even so, the sky is still the limit. Given how good Texas’ three-deep looks and the fact that they have a legitimate three-deep, there’s a world in which this team wins 12 games.
There’s another world where Texas goes 7-5. That’s probably the next least likely outcome under consideration. Getting there would involve head coach Steve Sarkisian losing the team. We don’t expect that to happen.
Here’s a look at our ceiling and floor for each of our Big 12 contenders.
Texas
Ceiling, and how it gets there: 12-0.
If the Oklahoma Sooners’ ceiling is 11-1, you can absolutely say Texas can win 12 games. The depth of this Longhorns squad is so much ahead of the the Sooners and the rest of the league. If Texas role players can consistently play sound football, the proven, developed talent will overpower its 2023 opponents. Add in a Quinn Ewers that lives up to his five-star billing and Texas can threaten for a 12-0 season. A 10-win season is much more realistic.
Floor, and how it gets there: 7-5.
If Texas starts 2-2 and gets despondent, the team is in real danger of falling to 7-5. While national writers might give the Longhorns a badge for losing five close games last season, not all of those games should have been close. The team has to take the game out of the officials’ hands and win decidedly to avoid multiple losses.
Kansas State
Ceiling, and how it gets there: 11-1.
The Wildcats won the Big 12 last season after going 9-3 in regular season play. We’ll give a high ceiling out of respect, but 9-3 is the more likely outcome. Kansas State would have to win at least one of two on the road against Texas and Texas Tech. K-State needs Will Howard to become the best quarterback in the Big 12. It also needs its defense to step up after significant losses this offseason. If that happens, look for a repeat bid for the Big 12 title.
Floor, and how it gets there: 7-5.
We mentioned the above three tough games. I see all three as losses for the Wildcats on the way to a 9-3 season. Falling further than that would be a surprise. The team gets TCU and Baylor at home and a Kansas team that loses often in the rivalry. It would likely take injuries to fall to this record.
Texas Tech
Ceiling, and how it gets there: 10-2.
Texas Tech might need to beat Texas just to get to 9-3. The regular season grind is going to be more difficult for Tech this season. If the Raiders win their early season matchup with Oregon, the next real challenge may not come until the fifth game against Baylor. After Baylor come six more difficult matchups: Kansas State, at BYU, TCU, at Kansas, UCF and at Texas. If the team can get to that seven-game stretch at 5-0 and win one of two against K-State and Baylor, 10-2 is very much on the table.
Floor, and how it gets there: 6-6.
The schedule is primarily what gets Texas Tech to 6-6. The program faces eight losable games in Oregon, Baylor, K-State, BYU, TCU, Kansas, UCF and Texas. Add in wild cards like Houston and a road battle against West Virginia and this season could turn south fast. I have 9-3 and a Big 12 championship appearance for Texas Tech.
Oklahoma
Ceiling, and how it gets there: 11-1.
At my very most optimistic for Oklahoma, the Sooners go 11-1 in their best case scenario. The team has a manageable schedule and its best player might be its quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Good weapons at receiver in Jalil Farooq and Austin Stogner stay healthy and thrive and the team has little to no significant injuries. The defense makes a leap similar to the one it made in 2019 when Kenneth Murray and the Oklahoma defensive front dominated competition. The Sooners upset Texas and lose a stinker or handle business and fall to the Longhorns as their only loss in this scenario.
Floor, and how it gets there: 7-5.
The depth will be Oklahoma’s undoing if the season derails. If the Sooners lose Austin Stogner or Jalil Farooq to injury the offense could stall. The offensive line is perhaps one injury away from being a weakness. In this scenario the defensive tackles and cornerbacks continue to struggle and some of the conference’s newcomers like UCF, Cincinnati and BYU reach their potential.
TCU
Ceiling, and how it gets there: 12-0.
TCU followed a 5-7 season with a perfect regular season and a national championship berth. It was Sonny Dykes’ first season. Dykes is far-and-away the best coach in the conference so far, and in this scenario he reloads. Chandler Morris plays like the quarterback Dykes thought he was when he named him the starter last season. Wide receiver JoJo Earle and other portal transfers make an impact right away. TCU’s three defensive preseason all-conference selections play like first-team players.
Floor, and how it gets there: 7-5.
The schedule could get TCU to five losses. The Horned Frogs play a wild card in Colorado and a portal heavy SMU roster in non-conference. Those probably aren’t losses, but again, we don’t know much about how either team will gel. TCU’s last five games in succession are as follows: at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor and at Oklahoma. Included in that number are three ranked preseason opponents. Give Dykes credit if this team does as well as 9-3.
