What is a 100-win club in MLB's shortened season? Wrap your mind around these new projections
Holding a shortened MLB season in the middle of a global pandemic is going to present challenges. More than any other sport, baseball is a grind. Over the course of a 162-game season, the best teams usually rise to the top.
But over a 60-game stretch, anything can happen. Baseball Prospectus unveiled updated MLB projections Wednesday, and while the division leaders haven’t changed drastically, there’s plenty of potential for the pandemic-shortened season to produce unusual results.
Who’s a favorite now? Who dropped back?
The biggest change in the projections comes in the National League East. In the projections Baseball Prospectus ran in February, the New York Mets were projected to narrowly win the division over the Washington Nationals. This time around, the Nationals are a slight favorite. Washington is projected for 32.8 wins in 2020. The Mets are now projected to win 32.3 games, so it should be a close race.
Over in the American League West, the Oakland Athletics are now projected to finish second in the division over the Los Angels Angels. Oakland is projected for 31.6 wins. The Angels sit at 31.4 wins.
Other than that, the projected standings are probably what you would expect. The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for the most wins, sitting at 38.4. The New York Yankees (36.4) and Houston Astros (36.1) aren’t far behind. The National League Central remains a giant mess. The Cincinnati Reds (32.8) are projected to win the division, but the fourth-place Milwaukee Brewers (30.0) are not far behind.
Be impressed by that 37-win team
Maybe the biggest adjustment is just putting the new condensed slate of games into perspective.
Compared to a normal, 162-game season, those win totals are significantly lower. Baseball fans know a team that wins 100 games in a normal season is a good team. What’s the equivalent during a 60-game season?
Using winning percentage might be the best way to go in this instance. In a 60-game season, winning 37 games is the equivalent of winning 100 games over a 162-game season. Both figures come out to a similar winning percentage (between .616 and .617). The team with the lowest winning percentage to make the postseason last year was the Brewers, who sat at .549. In a 60-game season, 33 wins produces a similar winning percentage. Teams projected near 33 wins should be considered playoff contenders in 2020 based on that rough math.
That’s where the unusual nature of the season seeps in. Baseball Prospectus projects 17 teams to win at least 30 games. In a pandemic-shortened season, it’s easy to envision a scenario where a team wins an extra four or five games based on randomness. Those games carry a lot more weight in a short season. Because of that, playoff odds look much different compared to projections Baseball Prospectus ran in March.
Let chaos reign
Nineteen teams saw their playoff odds improve thanks to the shortened season. The St. Louis Cardinals saw the biggest boost, with their odds jumping from 25.3 percent in March to 37.1 percent in July, according to BP’s Rob Mains. The Chicago White Sox and Brewers both saw their odds jump by more than 9 percent. The Baltimore Orioles — who had a 0.0 percent chance at making the postseason in March — have jumped to 0.1 percent in July. The system is telling you there’s a chance, O’s fans!
The presence of the coronavirus will affect the season in ways we may not be able to fully grasp. We don’t know how many players will test positive, and it feels unimportant to pontificate on wins and losses when talking about a virus that has claimed countless lives. It will be impossible to talk about the 2020 MLB season — and everything that happens in it — without mentioning the virus.
MLB is aware of those risks, and is working to make things as safe as possible before the season begins July 23. But in the event a full 60-game schedule, the on-field 2020 season could be a more unpredictable ride than usual. Score one for the underdogs.
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