Here are KU football’s best- and worst-case scenarios in 2023 with coach Lance Leipold

LAWRENCE — The second season of the Lance Leipold era for Kansas football saw the Jayhawks reach the program’s first bowl game in more than a decade.

Leipold, now about to enter his third season as Kansas’ head coach, is in the midst of a turnaround in Lawrence that’s surprised many. The Jayhawks did more in 2022 than just build off of a promising end to the 2021 campaign. And now, it’s just a matter of the extent to which they can capitalize on that momentum in 2023.

Will Kansas be able to reach a bowl game for a second-straight season and do more to establish itself in the new-look Big 12 Conference? Here are some hypothetical best-case and worst-case scenarios to think about for the upcoming campaign as fall camp plays out in August:

Best-case scenario

Kansas opens the season Sept. 1 with a no-doubt victory at home against Missouri State, and follows that up by handling a promising Illinois squad the next week at home, as well. Both games feature home crowds that set David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium up for full or nearly full stands for the rest of the year. And that momentum helps for the road opener against Nevada the following week, too, as the Jayhawks start 3-0 and sweep their non-conference slate.

Big 12 Conference play starts with a win Sept. 23 at home against BYU, before a road trip to Texas sees Kansas lose its first game of the season Sept. 30. The Longhorns make up for a loss against the Jayhawks at home during Leipold’s first season at the helm, but don’t sap Leipold and company of the energy to reach 5-1 with a win at home Oct. 7 against UCF. Halfway through the season, for the second year in a row, Kansas is one win away from clinching bowl eligibility.

The Jayhawks do end up experiencing their first losing streak of the season with a loss on the road Oct. 14 against Oklahoma State, and a loss Oct. 28 at home against Oklahoma after an open week. But Nov. 4, on the road against Iowa State, Kansas makes up for a crushing defeat in Ames, Iowa, a couple years ago with a victory against the Cyclones. Now, the Jayhawks are 6-3 with a few regular season games left.

Texas Tech shows Kansas there’s still room for growth Nov. 11 in Lawrence, with a Red Raiders win against the Jayhawks. But on Nov. 18 at home, Kansas beats rival Kansas State for the first time in years. Then the Jayhawks win Nov. 25 on the road against Cincinnati to wrap up the regular season with an 8-4 mark overall and 5-4 record against the Big 12 — ahead of another bowl game.

Worst-case scenario

Kansas has no problem topping Missouri State in the season opener at home. Leipold and company remain undefeated in season openers through three years. But the following week, the Jayhawks lose against Illinois to drop to 1-1, and the road opener against Nevada also goes poor as Kansas drops to 1-2.

The Jayhawks get back on track with a win in their Big 12 opener against BYU, garnering momentum for a fan base still eager for a strong 2023. But then the losses start to pile up again. Texas handles Kansas in Austin, before a surging UCF squad tops Leipold’s in Lawrence to open the Jayhawks’ October slate.

That drops Kansas to 2-4 overall, before a road loss at Oklahoma State and home loss against Oklahoma on Homecoming both leave bad tastes for the Jayhawks. Now, Kansas is 2-6 two-thirds of the way through the regular season. A win on the road at the beginning of November against Iowa State ends the slide, but there’s an uphill battle to make a bowl game.

Texas Tech and Kansas State hand the Jayhawks back-to-back losses in Lawerence to wrap up Kansas’ home slate for 2023. A win on the road at the end of November against Cincinnati does something for the Jayhawks’ offseason, but not much for their bowl eligibility. Kansas finishes the regular season 4-8 overall and 3-6 against the Big 12.

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Jordan Guskey covers University of Kansas Athletics at The Topeka Capital-Journal. He is the National Sports Media Association’s sportswriter of the year for the state of Kansas for 2022. Contact him at jmguskey@gannett.com or on Twitter at @JordanGuskey.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: KU football’s best-, worst-case scenarios in 2023 with Lance Leipold