Knicks offseason primer: Trade possibilities, Josh Hart free agency, more
After a brief hiccup in the 2021-22 season, the New York Knicks bounced back, returning to the playoffs and winning their first series in a decade before losing 4-2 to the Miami Heat in the second round. The key to their resurgence was finding consistency at point guard, which they achieved with the addition of Jalen Brunson. Coupled with a return to form for Julius Randle and significant improvements across the roster, the Knicks are well-positioned for success in the coming seasons.
The Knicks could be one of the most fascinating teams to watch this summer. They have the most trade flexibility among playoff teams and are primed to make a big splash should they choose. They have the means to make significant improvements while retaining their current young talent.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the New York Knicks.
Trade possibilities
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The Knicks are back to being a star destination but they won’t be able to acquire one with cap space. However, they have the biggest combination of first-round picks and talented young prospects among this year’s playoff teams. This was evident when they chose not to top the Cavaliers’ trade offer for Donovan Mitchell and now they’ll have another shot at acquiring the league’s next available All-Star.
The Knicks have all their own first-round picks from 2024 onward and four additional ones owed by Dallas, Detroit, Washington, and Milwaukee. They can trade a maximum of eight first-round picks: four of their own and all four owed to them. The Mavericks’ Top 10 protected pick is now likely to roll over into 2024 after their late-season slide slotted them with the league’s 10th-worst record. Of the other three owed to them, only the Bucks pick is guaranteed to convey since it is unprotected in 2025.
The recent trend in All-Star trades is sending out a high volume of first-round picks in exchange for the player. So if the Knicks are willing to move out a large number of them they could probably acquire an All-Star. After holding a firm line in the Mitchell negotiations, they seem unlikely to shell out most of them in a single deal. If anything, their line could be reduced now with the new CBA rules.
The Knicks are on the border of the luxury tax line and could easily go above it and the second tax apron if they make a big trade. The newly implemented second tax apron would essentially restrict teams from increasing their payroll other than re-signing their own players, signing draft picks, and minimum players. This increases the value of draft picks by default, so the Knicks could be looking to conserve draft picks in case they become a second tax apron team in the near future.
The Knicks also have several talented players like Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, and Quentin Grimes that other teams could covet. The former two are set to enter contract years so the Knicks could look to move on from them if they don’t intend on extending them. Grimes, on the other hand, was valued highly in the Mitchell negotiations and could be harder for the Knicks to part ways with now. He established himself as a great 3-and-D guard this season and is set to earn less than $5 million annually over the next two seasons.
One other advantage for the Knicks in the possibility of acquiring an All-Star is that they don’t have to part ways with any of Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, or RJ Barrett to match salaries. They have plenty in Evan Fournier, who’s on a sizeable expiring contract, Mitchell Robinson, and Derrick Rose if they pick up his team option. Combining just two of those players can get the Knicks far in salary matching.
Free agent: Josh Hart
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Josh Hart is expected to enter free agency this summer after he presumably declines his $13 million player option. The six-year wing was acquired midseason by the Knicks after bouncing around multiple teams over the past few seasons. He may have found a home in New York after fitting in so seamlessly in the rotation.
According to HoopsHype’s Michael Scotto, Hart is projected to earn $15-18 million annually this summer. He could actually get that type of deal ahead of free agency by declining his player option and extending before June 30. He is eligible to extend for up to four years, $69.7 million, which would have his $13 million salary for 2023-24 replaced with a $15.6 million salary. Alternatively, the Knicks could give him the same dollar amount but in a descending annual structure in a new deal during free agency.
Extension candidate: Immanuel Quickley
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Immanuel Quickley will be extension-eligible during the offseason. The third-year guard had a breakout season where he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. He could also receive some All-Defense consideration after making significant strides on that end of the court. He struggled in the playoffs but he has established himself as a very good rotation player in the league and still has room to improve.
Quickley’s next deal could reset the market for high end defensive specialist reserve guards. Players like Alex Caruso, De’Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II are all earning around $8-9 million annually but Quickley’s next deal should break above that. Tyus Jones’ $14 million salary, one of the highest among backup point guards, could serve as a floor for Quickley.
Extension candidate: Obi Toppin
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Obi Toppin is New York’s other significant extension-eligible player. He’s made steady improvements each season though on low usage. Toppin has excelled when given significant minutes, particularly in games where Randle doesn’t play. But there lies the thorn in Toppin’s potential future as a Knick. Thibodeau always plays a traditional center at all times which limits Toppin to playing exclusively at the four. As long as Randle is playing big minutes it’s hard to see Toppin playing a bigger role in New York.
This predicament could stall extension negotiations between both sides. If anything, both sides could be more amenable to a trade that gets the Knicks a frontcourt upgrade and gets Toppin to a team that could give him a bigger role. Toppin could be looking at extension offers at the non-taxpayer mid-level range comparable to what Bobby Portis, Larry Nance Jr., and Kyle Anderson are earning. He could be looking at significantly higher ranges in 2024 free agency if he gets to a new team and breaks out in a bigger role.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 15
Guaranteed salaries: $136.2 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $35.9 million
Total salary: $172.1 million
Luxury tax space: $10.1 million over the tax line (will get under if they don’t pick up the team option for Derrick Rose)
First apron space: $7.5 million over the first apron
Second apron space: $3 million below the second apron
Spending power:
Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000 (will get access to the non-taxpayer MLE if they don’t pick up the team option for Derrick Rose)
Julius Randle
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2023-24 salary: $28,226,880
Remaining salary guaranteed: $93,329,280 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $32.4 million
$2.6 million in likely incentives
15 percent trade bonus currently worth $8 million
Jalen Brunson
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2023-24 salary: $26,346,666
Remaining salary guaranteed: $76,266,668 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $25 million
10 percent trade bonus currently worth $5.1 million
RJ Barrett
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2023-24 salary: $23,883,929
Remaining salary guaranteed: $107,000,000 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
$2.9 million in unlikely incentives
Evan Fournier
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2023-24 salary: $18,857,143
Remaining salary guaranteed: $18,857,143
Additional notes:
Team option in 2024-25 worth $19,000,000
$1.5 million in unlikely incentives
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24
Mitchell Robinson
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2023-24 salary: $15,681,818
Remaining salary guaranteed: $42,954,546 through 2025-26
Derrick Rose
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2023-24 salary: $15,596,339 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24 if team option is picked up
Josh Hart
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2023-24 salary: $12,960,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary in non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 25 (even if he picks up the option)
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24 if he picks up the option
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $9,245,121
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,245,121
Additional notes:
$1.05 million in likely incentives
5 percent trade bonus currently worth $409,756
Obi Toppin
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2023-24 salary: $6,803,012
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,803,012
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up to five years
Immanuel Quickley
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2023-24 salary: $4,171,548
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,171,548
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up to five years
Quentin Grimes
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2023-24 salary: $2,385,720
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,682,402 through 2024-25
Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $2,066,585
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date
Isaiah Roby
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2023-24 salary: $2,066,585
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date
Jericho Sims
(Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is partially guaranteed. Fully guaranteed August 16
Miles McBride
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2023-24 salary: $1,836,096 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24 if team option is picked up
Trevor Keels
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Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Duane Washington Jr.
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Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
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