Keys to the game and Sal’s prediction for Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
ORCHARD PARK - Center Mitch Morse felt the need to remind some of his teammates before the Buffalo Bills flew over to London two weeks ago that what had happened in the previous three games was pretty rare in the NFL.
During three consecutive Buffalo blowouts over the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins, Morse and a few other veterans were given chunks of the fourth quarter off and Morse said the other day, “I was thinking those games where a few of us started coming out in the fourth quarter, like this might happen once a year, maybe, and it happened three times in a row,” Morse said. “So I was just telling the guys like, ‘This isn't normal, we're gonna have to work on battling through four quarters.’”
Sure enough, there was no time off in the loss to the Jaguars, certainly none in the narrow victory over the Giants, and there probably won’t be any Sunday when the 4-2 Bills travel to New England to face the dazed and confused 1-5 Patriots.
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The inclination of many would be to expect an easy Bills victory given the current state of the two AFC East rivals, never mind the recent domination the Bills have enjoyed over Bill Belichick’s team as they have won six of the last seven by an average score of roughly 30-16.
Well, that was the expectation last week against the Giants and look what disaster almost befell the Bills. The offense hasn’t exactly distinguished itself the past two weeks and now they face a Patriots defense that is certainly more effective than those of the Jaguars and Giants, and is coached by one of the best defensive minds in the history of the league.
As we just saw with the Bills’ narrow survival against the woefully overmatched Giants, nothing is a given in the NFL and Josh Allen — despite all his success against the Patriots — knows this.
“It's the National Football League; the other 31 teams want to win a Super Bowl, just like us,” he said. “The other guys get paid just like us. It's no easy task to win in this league consistently, it really isn't. Everybody's got a new game plan, every week is a different week. Every situation you find yourself in, it seems to be different.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
Buffalo Bills on offense
The high-flying Dolphins have averaged 520.6 yards in the five games where they did not face the Patriots, but against New England they produced season-lows of 389 total yards and 244 passing yards. New England also frustrated the Eagles in a close loss and in its only victory over the Jets, Belichick’s defense yielded a mere 171 yards. Yeah, that’s Zach Wilson at QB, but I’ll remind you that same Jets team beat the Bills because they also have great weapons in WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall.
The point here is that New England’s defense is legit, even without its best edge rusher in Matthew Judon. Miami’s 389 yards are the most the Patriots have allowed, the Raiders’ 264 passing yards last week were a season high against, and what is surprising is that New England has defended well despite registering only 12 sacks and an NFL-low three takeaways. This defense makes you earn every yard.
Overall, the Pats rank 10th in yards allowed (306.7), eighth in yards per play (4.8) and are 10th in third-down conversions allowed (37.3%) so the Bills are going to need to avoid another slow start and get the Patriots on their heels. Score early and don’t let the Patriots hang around.
The Patriots have two veteran CBs in Jonathan Jones (if he plays as he's one of 16 questionable players on the injury report) and J.C. Jackson (who was just re-acquired in a trade) and Stefon Diggs might not have as easy a time as he’s had in piling up five 100-yard games so far. Therefore, the Bills have to get something out of their other targets, specifically WR Gabe Davis and TE Dalton Kincaid who is expected back after missing a game with a concussion. With Judon out, the Patriots have struggled to generate pressure and they'll also be without injured edge rusher Josh Uche in this game, so Allen should have some time to work through his progressions and get the other weapons involved.
Clearly the coaches have told Allen to be more judicious on running with the ball, but that’s an element of his game that he needs to tap back into, especially against a division opponent that knows the Buffalo offense. You can have the perfect defensive call, but Allen can blow things up when he takes off and runs. However, with a sore shoulder, that might not be part of the plan Sunday.
Buffalo Bills on defense
Given the health status of the Bills’ defense, the Patriots should be the right team to be playing Sunday because there offense has been so bad. Now with Ed Oliver out, the Bills are down their two best DTs (Oliver and DaQuan Jones), best CB (Tre White) and best LB (Matt Milano). It’s becoming a big concern for the Bills.
With those absences matter against the Patriots’ offense, though? It has scored on a league-low 18.3% of its offensive possessions this season. That’s not a typo: 18.3%. The Bills, even with their recent struggles, have scored on 46% of their possessions. And largely because of an anemic average drive length of 23.5 yards, the Patriots have penetrated the red zone just 10 times which is second-fewest in the league behind the equally inept Steelers’ offense (7). By comparison, the Bills have reached the red zone 24 times.
QB Mac Jones has regressed each of his three seasons in the NFL and his poor decision-making - which was supposed to be one of his strengths — continually creates problems and has led to seven interceptions compared to just five TD passes. Of course, it doesn’t help that Belichick the GM has been unable to give Jones productive skill position players. The WR trio of Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster is about as underwhelming as it gets.
TE Hunter Henry can be effective, but his playing status is undetermined as he’s battling an ankle injury, so the Patriots may have to rely on TE Mike Gesiski, a player who has had some success against the Bills during his days in Miami.
Undoubtedly, with the massive hole in the middle with Oliver, Jones and Milano out, the Patriots will likely try to get RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott going against a Bills defense that can occasionally be vulnerable against the run even with its best players available. If the Patriots can establish the run and maintain possession, that would make Jones’ life a little easier when he drops to throw and he can use more play-action. If they don’t have balance, the Bills’ pass rush - which leads the NFL in sack percentage (11.6%) and is fourth in pressure rate (41.5%) - could wreck the day for New England’s lame offense.
One thing to watch for: Might the Patriots use backup rookie QB Malik Campbell in a package of plays? He’s a much better athlete than Jones, and creating some read option looks could be a way for the Patriots to move the sticks on a third down. He played six snaps last week against the Raiders.
Bills vs. Patriots: News and notes
▶ Buffalo has won the last three regular-season games by at least 10 points, something that no team has ever done during Belichick’s tenure with the Patriots. Add in the 30-point rout in the 2021 wild-card playoff game and it’s four straight.
▶ Last week was Belichick’s 500th career game as a head coach counting the postseason. He is sitting on 299 career regular-season victories so he’ll be seeking to join Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318) as the only men in NFL history with at least 300. Counting the postseason, Belichick’s 330 victories are second only to Shula’s 347.
▶ The Bills have a plus-240 point differential in AFC East games dating back to 2020, the best mark in the NFL. The Packers at plus-154 in the NFC North have the second-best point differential.
▶ Terrel Bernard is currently the only player in the NFL with at least two sacks, two interceptions and two fumble recoveries.
▶ The Patriots are the only team in the NFL to have not scored more than 20 points in a game this season and they have scored only eight touchdowns all year. Their 72 points through six games are their fewest since 1995 and seventh fewest all-time.
▶ New England is tied for last in turnover margin at minus-8; the Bills are tied for 10th at plus-4.
▶ The Buffalo defense has allowed 10 or fewer points three times, tied with Dallas and Kansas City for most in the NFL.
▶ The Bills punted just seven times in their first four games but have done so nine times in the last two weeks.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 24, Patriots 13
I have too much scar tissue built up through the years watching the Patriots own the Bills to ever expect a Buffalo victory in this series. And yes, I fully recognize that Buffalo has turned the tables and has dominated New England ever since Josh Allen’s ascendency began in 2020, but there’s something about the Patriots that always rattles around in the back of my brain.
That said, the Bills are clearly superior in several ways — I know, I said that last week against the Giants — and I do think Allen and the offense will find a little rhythm and do enough to win. Also, even though Buffalo’s defense is missing some vital pieces and is relying on some young and inexperienced players, New England’s offense has shown no ability to be enough of a threat to outscore the Bills.
2023 Buffalo Bills schedule
Mon. Sept . 11, Jets 22, Bills 16 (OT)
Sun., Sept. 17, Bills 38, Raiders 10
Sun. Sept. 24, Bills 37, Commanders 3
Sun. Oct. 1, Bills 48, Dolphins 20
Sun. Oct. 8, Jaguars 25, Bills 20
Sun. Oct. 15, Bills 14, Giants 9
Sun. Oct. 22, at Patriots, 1 p.m.
Thur. Oct. 26, vs. Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 5, at Bengals, 8:20 p.m.
Mon. Nov. 13, vs. Broncos, 8:15 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 19, vs. Jets, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Nov. 26, at Eagles, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 3, Bye week
Sun. Dec. 10, at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 17, vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Sat. Dec. 23, at Chargers, 8 p.m.
Sun. Dec. 31, vs. Patriots, 1 p.m.
Sun. Jan. 7, at Dolphins, TBD
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Patriots: Predictions, keys to Sunday game
