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Kentucky basketball NCAA Tournament projections after one-point loss at LSU

LEXINGTON — Despite losing by a point at LSU Wednesday night, Kentucky basketball's projected NCAA Tournament seeding saw little change.

On Feb. 12, Bracket Matrix had the Wildcats' predicted average seed as 6.53. Then UK went out and beat Ole Miss (at home) and Auburn (on the road), which bumped up Kentucky's average seed to 5.91. Even after Wednesday's loss, UK's projected seed is better now: 5.52 in Bracket Matrix's latest update, which published Thursday.

As of Friday afternoon, the Wildcats' NET ranking is 24, a three-spot drop since Tuesday. Kentucky's road win over Auburn was crucial — it marked the Wildcats' first Quad 1 win in more than a month, with John Calipari's club now 3-6 in such contests this season. (Quad 1 games are one of the most important metrics for potential NCAA Tournament teams when the selection committee begins filling out the bracket on Selection Sunday.)

Bracketologists.com, which relies solely upon the NET rankings to create its bracket, projected the Wildcats as a No. 6 seed as of Thursday. BracketWAG.com, which updated its bracket after Thursday's games wrapped up, slotted Kentucky as the No. 5 seed in the East Region, where it would face 12-seed Samford in the first round in Spokane, Washington. Bracketville, which released its new projections Friday morning, predicted UK would head to Pittsburgh as the No. 5 seed in the West Region, taking on No. 12 seed South Florida in the first round.

Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament résumé as of Friday afternoon, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:

Kentucky basketball tournament résumé and NET ranking

Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari talks with his team during a timeout as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. Kentucky Wildcats lead Auburn Tigers 39-29 at halftime.
Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari talks with his team during a timeout as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. Kentucky Wildcats lead Auburn Tigers 39-29 at halftime.

NET ranking: 24

KenPom ranking: 23

Quad 1 record: 3-6

Quad 2 record: 3-1

Quad 3 record: 6-1

Quad 4 record: 6-0

ESPN NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his new bracket Friday morning. He dropped UK one line since his prior release Tuesday, slotting the Wildcats as the No. 6 seed in the East Region. Lunardi has Kentucky traveling to Omaha, Nebraska, for a matchup with No. 11 seed Grand Canyon in the first round.

Kentucky basketball in CBS Sports bracketology

Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl and Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari shake hands before the game as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
Auburn Tigers head coach Bruce Pearl and Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari shake hands before the game as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.

CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his latest update Friday morning. He placed Kentucky as the No. 7 seed in the South Region, making the short trip up to Indianapolis in the first round. Palm has UK facing No. 10 seed Northwestern.

UK basketball bracketology from USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY's Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus combined for a bracket for the network, which was released Friday morning. USA TODAY has UK as a 6-seed, squaring off with 11-seed Seton Hall in an East Region clash in Charlotte, North Carolina.

What's next for Kentucky basketball

Kentucky Wildcats guard Rob Dillingham (0) chases a loose ball as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. Kentucky Wildcats lead Auburn Tigers 39-29 at halftime.
Kentucky Wildcats guard Rob Dillingham (0) chases a loose ball as Auburn Tigers take on Kentucky Wildcats at Neville Arena in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024. Kentucky Wildcats lead Auburn Tigers 39-29 at halftime.

While it already has a loss this week, UK has a chance to redeem itself Saturday afternoon at Rupp Arena.

And it's a mammoth one: Alabama, first place in the SEC with an 11-2 record in league games entering Saturday, comes to town. The Crimson Tide is No. 5 in the NET rankings, giving the Wildcats another shot at a Quad 1 victory.

It also is an opportunity for revenge: Alabama annihilated Kentucky in the most recent meeting in the series. The Crimson Tide rolled to a 78-52 victory last season at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. It was Kentucky's most lopsided loss to Alabama in 157 matchups.

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball bracketology 2024: NCAA Tournament projections, UK