Can Kenny Payne rebound in Year 2? How 8 other programs fared after historically bad seasons

Kenny Payne stands at the crossroad of expectations and reality heading into his second season as head coach of the Louisville men's basketball team.

Coming off a 4-28 record, the worst in modern program history, Payne overhauled the Cardinals' roster by signing a 2023 recruiting class that ranks among the top 10 in the country on 247Sports — although one signee, five-star prospect Trentyn Flowers, announced Aug. 14 he was leaving U of L to jump start his professional career in Australia.

Seventeen days before Flowers' unexpected departure, Payne told reporters when summer workouts ended he believes this collection of talent has "the ingredients to be a winning basketball team" but said, "I can't hype it up, because it's unfair to these kids."

"Will we win?" he said. "We'll see."

Payne is trying to cultivate sustained success at his alma mater, which he said was "broken" when he was handed the keys on March 18, 2022. In his mind, that means holding off on talk of ending Louisville's three-year NCAA tournament drought while his eight newcomers, five of whom are new to Division I basketball, and four scholarship returners continue to gel on the court.

"Listen, elephant in the room, guys. I know we've got to win games," Payne said. "Every single time we take the floor, our job is to win games; but I am building a program. I am changing a culture. And in order to do that, I've got to first get them to understand the process of winning. That's more important than, to be honest with you, just saying, 'Let's just win this game.'"

This question will define U of L's 2023-24 campaign: Can the Cardinals grasp that process and show enough progress to keep Payne's rebuilding efforts afloat? The cost of terminating his six-year contract has decreased from $10 million to $8 million. On March 21, 2024, it will fall to $6 million.

The NCAA transfer portal, meanwhile, has made it easier than ever for new hires to flip rosters and find immediate success — see: Dennis Gates at Missouri. It's also allowed struggling coaches who have been granted enough leeway the ability to reach new heights — see: Jeff Capel at Pittsburgh.

Until Payne gets a chance to show his offseason work, history can offer a glimpse at what he's up against. Here's how eight other Power Five programs fared when tasked with following up historically abysmal performances in the past 20 years.

Making the case for patience

Rutgers

A 17-game losing streak against Big Ten opponents spelled doom for third-year head coach Eddie Jordan, who left Piscataway, New Jersey, after going 7-25 (1-17 in league play) in 2015-16 with a career record of 29-68.

His successor, Steve Pikiell, arrived from Stony Brook and went 15-18 (3-15) in Year 1 despite inheriting a marginally weaker 2016-17 schedule. Pikiell took until 2019-20 to post a winning record, but the Scarlet Knights have since been to the NCAA tournament twice, cracked the Associated Press' Top 25 poll in three of the past four seasons and boast 247Sports' No. 2 recruiting class in the 2024 cycle.

Although it took a coaching change for Rutgers to break a March Madness drought dating back to 1991, the time Pikiell has been given since taking over a program at its worst could be a blueprint for Louisville. And although the Scarlet Knights' definition of success is not quite up to the Cardinals' historic standards, following their lead would be a step in the right direction for Payne after a disastrous start to his tenure.

Indiana

Playing the third-toughest 2008-09 schedule in the country with the most-inexperienced Power Five roster made Tom Crean's Indiana debut a messy one.

Crean followed a 6-25 (1-17 Big Ten) inaugural campaign with back-to-back losing seasons before taking the Hoosiers to the Sweet 16 in 2011-12 and 2012-13. They would reach the NCAA tournament twice during his final four seasons. He was replaced by Archie Miller after an 18-16 finish to 2016-17, which started with IU at No. 11 in the AP's preseason Top 25 and ended without a trip to March Madness.

Miller fared worse, however, and got the axe four years later.

Crean left Indiana on bad terms but produced his share of memorable moments — ones Payne would no doubt welcome at U of L — while leading the Hoosiers to the second weekend of March Madness for the first time since 2002.

Purdue

Matt Painter was hired to replace Gene Keady, whose 25-year stint at Purdue came to an end with his retirement after going 7-21 in 2004-05. Like Payne, Painter's first season calling the shots at his alma mater didn't go according to plan.

The Boilermakers went 9-19 (3-13 Big Ten) against the 28th-toughest DI schedule and finished second only to a beleaguered Baylor team for the fewest wins among Power Five programs in 2005-06. But they ended the following year 22-12 (9-7) — a sign of improvement, and things to come, under the Keady disciple.

Painter has led the Boilermakers to 14 of the past 16 NCAA tournaments; they reached No. 1 in the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history during the 2021-22 season and won their first Big Ten Tournament titles in 2009 and 2023. Last season's first-round exit from March Madness as a No. 1 seed at the hands of No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson aside, any coach in the country would be lucky to achieve Painter's consistency.

Baylor

Scott Drew's first three seasons at Baylor were unforgettably forgettable. He took over the Bears with just one year of prior head-coaching experience and posted the fewest wins among Power Five teams in 2003-04 (8-21, 3-13 Big 12) and 2005-06 (4-13, 4-12) while dealing with a litany of probations stemming from a scandal under predecessor Dave Bliss that left the program in shambles.

Drew has proceeded to build a powerhouse in Waco, Texas, winning 422 of his 655 games across two decades at Baylor while reaching the NCAA tournament 11 times and going 17–9 in March Madness. Under his guidance, the Bears secured their first No. 1 seed and won their first national championship in 2021.

Drew heads into Year 21 with a top-15 recruiting class in the 2023 cycle and a top-10 haul in the works for 2024, according to 247Sports. In his case, the night was darkest just before the dawn.

Making the case for a program reset

Iowa State

Iowa State parted ways with sixth-year coach Steve Prohm following a 2-22 (0-18 Big 12) 2020-21 campaign. The Cyclones were mired in COVID-19 issues, recorded a school-worst .083 winning percentage against the country's 12th-toughest schedule and became the first Big 12 team to go without a victory in conference play since 2014.

Prohm, who's now back coaching at Murray State, inherited an Iowa State program that reached four consecutive NCAA tournaments under Fred Hoiberg. He was replaced by T.J. Otzelberger, who in his first two seasons has secured back-to-back winning records and March Madness berths while playing one of the 15 toughest schedules in Division I both years. Otzelberger will look to make it three in a row this season with an incoming recruiting class that ranks seventh on 247Sports.

Auburn

Finishing 9-23 (3-15 SEC) in 2012-13, Year 3 under coach Tony Barbee, brought Auburn to its lowest winning percentage (.281) since the 1972-73 season. After his firing in 2014 due to a fourth consecutive sub-.500 campaign — the schedule got marginally tougher, and there was roster turnover — Barbee found his way onto John Calipari's staff at Kentucky.

Bruce Pearl, meanwhile, started out 15-20 (4-14) on the Plains but needed just three seasons to have the Tigers in the NCAA tournament. They've since reached the Final Four for the first time in school history (2019) and have blossomed into one of the most competitive teams in the SEC, surpassing 20 wins in five of the past six years.

Southern California

After back-to-back winning seasons and a trip to the NCAA tournament in Year 2 at USC, Kevin O'Neill and one of the country's most inexperienced rosters recorded the worst winning percentage in modern program history (.188, 6-26) during the 2011-12 campaign.

The Trojans and O'Neill parted ways after a 7-10 start to Year 4, then Andy Enfield took over the reins from interim coach Bob Cantu in April 2013. Enfield enters his 11th season at USC looking for a fourth consecutive March Madness appearance — the school's fifth since firing O'Neill — with 247Sports' No. 3 recruiting class at his disposal.

Iowa

Todd Lickliter was shown the exit door at Iowa after taking over for Steve Alford and posting three consecutive sub-.500 seasons. The last of which, 2009-10, saw the Hawkeyes record their lowest win total since the 1974-75 campaign — 10-22 (4-14 Big Ten).

Fran McCaffery was just one win better in his first year (11-20, 4-14) but heads into No. 14 having reached three straight NCAA tournaments. He also has eight 20-win seasons dating back to 2012-13.

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball 2023-24: Kenny Payne faces tall task in Year 2