K-State Wildcats vs. Florida Atlantic Owls: Elite Eight tip time, TV, odds, prediction

THE DETAILS

When: 5:09 p.m. Saturday

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York

TV: TBS

Radio: KCSP (610 AM) in Kansas City, KKGQ (92.3 FM) in Wichita

Betting line: Kansas State by 2

Over/Under: 145

STARTING LINEUPS

About No. 9 Florida Atlantic (34-3):

The Owls are coming off an impressive stretch of March Madness games in which they defeated Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson and Tennessee to reach the Elite Eight. Dusty May is one of the best young coaches in the industry and has guided Florida Atlantic to a whopping 34 wins this season. The Owls are excellent three-point shooters behind Johnell Davis, who leads the team with 13.9 points. They are also elite on defense while guarding shots from two-point range. But they don’t force many turnovers, which could be a good omen for the Wildcats.

About No. 3 Kansas State (26-9):

The Wildcats are coming off a thrilling 98-93 overtime victory against No. 7 Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Before that, K-State won NCAA Tournament games against Montana State and Kentucky. Markquis Nowell has been the star of this tournament, and he was at his best against the Spartans as he finished with 20 points, 19 assists and five steals. It was Keyontae Johnson, though, who led the Wildcats with 22 point in that game. K-State hasn’t reached a Final Four since 1964 and has lost seven straight games in the Elite Eight. That means little to head coach Jerome Tang and his players, but the Wildcats will need to overcome history here.

Prediction

The only thing standing between K-State and its first trip to the Final Four since all the way back in 1964 is a team from a mid-major conference that is in the middle of a Cinderella run through the NCAA Tournament.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.

The last two times the Wildcats reached the Elite Eight they lost to Butler in 2010 and Loyola-Chicago in 2018. It is definitely weird that K-State will once again play a team from outside the power conferences on this stage.

K-State fans should do themselves a favor and ignore the name on the front of the Owls’ jerseys. They are a very good team. Not only has Florida Atlantic won 34 games this season, it has done so with a deep roster of 10 regular contributors who make three-pointers at an impressive rate and play solid defense.

This will not be an easy game.

Florida Atlantic is a top 25 team according to most advanced statistics, which is no different from Michigan State. College basketball statistician Bart Torvik projected a dead heat between the Wildcats and the Spartans. His model isn’t much different for this game, as he gives K-State a 51% chance of winning.

Nowell is also less than 48 hours removed from an injury to his right ankle. There are more than a few reasons to think this game will be a toss up.

That being said, I like K-State to win. Nowell has said his ankle feels close to 90% and that should be enough for the Wildcats to survive and advance here. Johnson should also create matchup problems for the Owls.

The Wildcats struggle against teams that force turnovers, crash the glass and get to the free-throw line. That is not Florida Atlantic.

The Owls will need to hit shots and somehow frustrate Nowell into a bad game to emerge victorious.

I don’t see that happening. It’s more likely that Jerome Tang’s dream first season continues and K-State reaches the Final Four.

K-State 75, Florida Atlantic 70

Last game prediction: K-State 70, Michigan State 67 (Actual: K-State 98, Michigan State 93).

Season record: 24-11.

Season record against the spread: 18-17.