Juan Soto effect: Padres, Mariners, Cardinals chase OF with potential World Series odds boost
The pursuit of Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto by Tuesday’s trade deadline is literally a game changer. The victor could become the prohibitive World Series favorite or transform from a contender into an instant elite.
Soto, 23, rejected the Nationals’ 15-year, $440-million contract extension before the All-Star Game. He's eligible for free agency at the end of the 2024 season.
The fallout prompted the last-place Nationals (34-66) to open trade negotiations. What followed was a dynamic bidding war that’s expected to go down to the wire.
“Absolutely, to the deadline,” USA TODAY Sports baseball columnist Bob Nightengale said. “They have until 3 p.m. California time on Tuesday. The Nationals can wait and decide, ‘OK, is it worth doing, or do we move him into the winter?’ I don’t see his trade value changing all that much if they wait.”
For now, the defending National League champion Los Angeles Dodgers and American League East-leading New York Yankees stand as the +350 co-favorites to win the World Series.
The Yankees acquired .320-batting outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the Kansas City Royals late Wednesday, and Nightengale believes that takes them out of the Soto sweepstakes.
Nightengale also ruled out the Dodgers, assessing their top target as Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Luis Castillo, who struck out eight in a Wednesday victory over the Florida Marlins.
Those moves will barely alter the Yankees’ or Dodgers’ odds.
MLB World Series odds
Los Angeles Dodgers +350
New York Yankees +350
Houston Astros 9/2
Atlanta Braves 10/1
New York Mets 10/1
After sweeping a two-game set from the Yankees, the Mets would likely become co-favorites alongside their cross-town rival — at least — if they acquired Soto.
“If the Mets land Soto just giving up prospects, they’d certainly jump to be the solo favorite,” said Eric Biggio, Caesars Sportsbook’s lead baseball trader.
Nightengale foresees the Mets’ top pursuit at pitcher, though.
“The upper hand (for Soto) is the San Diego Padres. If I had to choose the favorites, I’d go Padres No. 1, Seattle No. 2, St. Louis No. 3, or he stays put,” Nightengale said. “San Diego’s got the real aggressive GM in (A.J.) Preller. If anyone’s going to give up their prospects, it’s the Padres.”
Should the Los Angeles Angels opt to part with reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, a similarly sharp rise in stock would apply.
The Padres — who have an arsenal of young major leaguers and prospects to offer, including shortstop C.J. Abrams — cling to a 2½-game lead for the N.L.’s final wild-card spot over the Cardinals. St. Louis trails N.L. Central-leading Milwaukee by three games, while the Seattle Mariners are in A.L. wild-card position.
Hitting .243 this season, Soto has smacked 20 home runs with 45 RBI. His career batting average is .291 and he’s swatted 118 homers with 357 RBI in his fifth season after helping Washington win the 2019 World Series.
“To me, the Padres acquiring Soto would be the most impactful,” Caesars’ Biggio said. “You roll out Tatis, Soto, Machado in the lineup … that makes them on par with the Dodgers, in my opinion."
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For now, the Padres range from 18/1 to 25/1 picks at shops canvassed Thursday while the Cardinals are 60/1 at Caesars. The Mariners, who’ve never appeared in a World Series, are 35/1 at BetMGM.
Other reported Soto suitors include the Cleveland Guardians — who trail the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins by two games — and the Tampa Bay Rays, who trail the Mariners by a half-game.
“The Guardians and Rays are a tough read. I’m not sure, and am curious, what they’ll do,” Biggio said. “If they acquire Soto, their odds would certainly move.”
The Guardians are a 100/1 offering at BetMGM and the Rays are 40/1 at Caesars.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Juan Soto effect: Padres, Mariners, Cardinals vie for Nationals OF
