Jim Sankey: Extra Innings: Only one acceptable draft choice for Pirates

Jul. 11—A little after 7 p.m. Sunday, the Pirates could have said the only two acceptable words for the organization and us Pirates fans: Dylan Crews.

There hasn't been this much pre-draft buzz in a long time, mainly because among the top choices are five players, each of whom in some seasons would be the consensus top pick.

But this year, two LSU teammates were the clear-cut best prospects the draft has offered in many years: junior outfielder Crews and senior pitcher Paul Skenes.

And while the pitcher whose right arm commonly launches 100 mph missiles has gained ground during this college baseball season, Crews remains the go-to guy on most draft boards.

But if the Pirates ignore taking the consensus best player in the draft, it will be a mammoth mistake, one which they could regret for many years to come.

This is not to diminish Skenes' ability, and were it not for Crews, this column would be calling for the Bucs to make him their top choice.

But in 2023, it must be Crews.

He led the Southeastern Conference with 163 total bases, set a school freshman record with 18 homers and was named National Freshman of the Year recognition in 2021. As a sophomore, he smacked 22 homers, won co-SEC player of the year honors and was named to the U.S. Collegiate National Team for a second straight season. He just completed his best season yet, leading LSU to the College World Series championship, won the Golden Spikes Award and repeated as SEC player of the year while batting .426 with 18 homers, and 70 RBIs, and 71 walks. Lauded for his work on both offense and defense, this once-in-a-generation athlete could be in the majors before summer's end.

If so, it had better be in black and gold.

Skenes is the SEC pitcher of the year honors, leading NCAA Division I with 209 strikeouts and 15.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The six-foot-six, 235-pound righty won 12 games with a 1.69 ERA in 2023.

Averaging 98 mph on his fastball and with a top-notch slider and power changeup, Skenes could be pitching in the majors now, were it not for the 122 2/3 innings he already tossed this spring.

Skenes is the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and surefire top overall pick among pitching prospect. But potentially serious injuries are all too common among pitchers.

Strasberg provides the perfect example, who made his major league debut in 2010 beating the Pirates. Certainly when healthy, the right-handed hurler has enjoyed success. His first ten seasons resulted in 112 wins, compiling an average 11-6 record, while developing several arm and elbow injuries which land him on the injured list. Since signing a seven-year $245 million extension before the 2020 season, he required carpal tunnel surgery in 2020, suffered shoulder inflammation and neck strain in 2021, and had another surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome in 2022. He has not pitched since then, due to what the Washington Post called "severe nerve damage," with the prospects of his ever pitching again as "not promising."

In summary, since 2000, Strasberg has appeared in eight combined games in those four seasons, allowing 32 hits in 31.1 innings with a combined 6.89.ERA—not exactly what the Nationals expected to get for $35 million in each of those four years ($140 million total), with $35 million still to be paid in 2024, 2025, and 2026 ($105 million total). And according to The Post's reporting, the Nationals do not have disability insurance on Strasburg, because the premiums would have been too expensive on top of a $245 million contract.

Not often familiar with winning ways, the Pirates (third worst record in 2022) won the new lottery among the six-worst teams to determine who gets the top pick.

The Pirates have had the number one draft pick a record six times: in 1986 (Jeff King), 1996 (Kris Benson), 2002 (Bryan Bullington), 2011 (Gerrit Cole), and 2021 (Henry Davis).

In the past, draft order was simply the reverse order of the previous year's final team. Now, MLB's new format features a draft lottery order among the previous season's worst six teams, with picks 7-18 determined by the remaining non-postseason teams in reverse order and picks 19-30 by the postseason teams in reverse order of their postseason finish.

Even if Crews and Skenes enjoyed equal evaluations, I'm always going to take the everyday position player who could play in 162 games over the starting pitcher who at most will perform in 20 percent of the season's games.

It's Crews or disappointment for the Pirates.

EDITOR'S NOTE: Today's Extra Innings column, intended for a July 5 publication, before Baseball's Amateur Draft on Sunday, was a space casualty. In addition to the original column, here is Sankey's take on the Pirates selection of Paul Skenes over Dylan Crews: "I still prefer Crews' everyday value with less risk of injury, but I think management's reasoning is this: In three postseason appearances from 2013-2015, the Pirates lost two wild card games and a division playoff series because they lacked a super pitcher like Wainwright, Baumgarner, or Arieta and they're never going to pay $35 million, $40 million, and up to get one via free agency. Their only path to a master pitcher is to draft one, ride him for six years, and then say bye-bye when he surpasses what the team is willing pay. They are betting that Skenes' performance in 20 percent of the team's games will outweigh that of Crews in nearly 100 percent of the team's games. "

JIM SANKEY is the Pittsburgh Pirates columnist for Allied News. His work appears weekly in the form of the Extra Innings column during the baseball season.

JIM SANKEY is the Pittsburgh Pirates columnist for Allied News. His work appears weekly in the form of the Extra Innings column during the baseball season.