What Jake Muzzin gives the Maple Leafs
On a roster captained by Anze Kopitar and a blue line led by Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin was considered to be the most consistent and effective player on the Los Angeles Kings this season — at least through the eyes of some.
Now there are no such assurances that Muzzin will assume similar standing with the talent-rich Toronto Maple Leafs after his acquisition for three futures. Invariably, players that switch systems and sweaters adjust to new surroundings on different timelines and to varying degrees.
But even if Muzzin isn’t the complete fix to the back end which let the Maple Leafs down last spring, there are things we can bank on.
Here’s what the Muzzin add is sure to offer the Leafs:
Top-four flexibility
It’s believed that Muzzin will slot in on his off side to pair with the most talented defenseman on the roster, Norris hopeful Morgan Rielly.
While he has some experience on the right side, Muzzin has been used predominantly on the left — and the switch certainly complicates his adjustment from L.A. to Toronto. But the bottom line is that Muzzin is much more talented and, at this point in their careers, far more capable to log big and more productive minutes than the veteran he’s expect to replace — Ron Hainsey.
How far Hainsey falls in the lineup remains a question. But now head coach Mike Babcock, who has been reluctant to tinker too much with his pairings, has the flexibility to fix what isn’t working. With Rielly and Muzzin taking on the heavy minutes, Babcock can either keep Jake Gardiner with the problematic Nikita Zaitsev, slide Hainsey into that role, or experiment with something of nuclear option: promoting Travis Dermott to the second pair with Gardiner — whom he’s likely to replace next season in the two-hole on the left side on a full-time basis.
Having the four most talented defenders on the roster shoot the same way isn’t ideal, but if Muzzin and Dermott can handle playing on the opposite side, and the team’s best four log the most minutes, suddenly the defensive dynamic completely changes in Toronto.
Someone who can ride shotgun, and drive the bus
Muzzin’s most common defensive partner this season and in recent years hasn’t been Doughty — instead it’s been former Stanley Cup-clinching goal scorer Alec Martinez.
And together this season, Muzzin and Martinez have driven the best results as the only L.A. pairing with a positive goal differential in meaningful minutes. When given the chance to work alongside Doughty, however, Muzzin has lent his talent to an objectively dominant pairing for the Kings.
Over the last three-and-a-half seasons, and across over 1,000 minutes at even strength, the Kings have controlled shot share at 57.8 percent with Muzzin and Doughty working in tandem.
With a career 56.7 percent shot share individually, while part of dominant teams as well as poor ones, and when he’s anchored his own unit or facilitated a No. 1, Muzzin has been a productive player from shift-to-shift throughout his entire career.
Lightens the load this summer
Toronto likely doesn’t part with impact AHLer Carl Grundstrom, second-rounder Sean Durzi and a first-round draft pick this summer for a few months with Muzzin. As beneficial as the defender should be this spring, much of his value is in next season — where he’ll continue to earn a very manageable salary that currently ranks as the fourth-most lucrative on the Leafs’ current blue line.
With Jake Gardiner headed toward a major pay increase this summer (and Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner about to play out their ELCs), it became imperative that Leafs GM Kyle Dubas acquired cost-efficient help on the back end before the start of next season. That they have him for two potential Stanley Cup runs makes the Muzzin move a slam dunk.
While it would have been nice if the Leafs were able to convince the Kings to take on half the salary, thus opening up another $2 million in cap space, you cannot complain with adding a player of Muzzin’s calibre at his current controlled cost.
Nothing else changes
For the fact that he didn’t have to take from the current roster in order to stock up on the blue line, Dubas soothed much of the concern among Leaf fans.
While Grundstrom and Durzi are two of the top prospects in the system, and the first-round selection coughed up would hopefully yield the same, losing Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson in a deal for Muzzin would impact Toronto’s ability to win now and next season.
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