Ira Winderman: Jaylen Brown deal has Heat, NBA following the money by playing the percentages

It is a staggering figure, $304 million over five seasons. Perhaps even more staggering is that extension this past week went to a player who was on the wrong side of the Boston Celtics’ loss to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference finals, a player who closed those seven games with 25 turnovers to 24 assists, who shot .418 in that series, including .163 on 3-pointers.

Nonetheless, the NBA’s richest contract now belongs to Jaylen Brown, a two-time All-Star selection over his seven years whose lone All-NBA selection was a second-team nod this past season.

The numbers are numbing: $52.4 million in 2024-25, $56.6 million in 2025-26, $60.8 million in 2026-27, $64.9 million in 2027-28 and $69.1 million in 2028-29. So, yes, the 82-game NBA is on the brink of $1 million per-game salaries.

Which means both that business is good, and that the perspective on such numbers has to change.

In a league where all indications are of an annual salary cap headed in excess of $200 million, the new math has to come by playing the percentages.

For example, in the first year of Brown’s extension, 2024-25, his contract, according to the math at spotrac.com, will be 24.8% of the Celtics’ overall cap. From that perspective, it is reasonable to forecast that a quarter of the Celtics’ success could be predicated on Brown’s performance. That same year, Jayson Tatum’s $34.8 million salary currently accounts for 16.5% of the Celtics’ cap and Kristaps Porzingis’ $29.3 million as 13.9%.

As a matter of perspective, for all the external consternation about the way the Heat went ahead with massive extensions (OK, massive at the time) for Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro during the latter stages of their rookie-scale deals, the Heat’s current (a key delineation at this moment) 2023-24 payroll has Jimmy Butler’s $45.2 million salary as 24.3% of the Heat’s salary cap, Adebayo’s $32.6 million as 17.5% and Herro’s $27 million as 16%.

If you instead factor in Damian Lillard’s $39.3 million 2023-24 salary, should the Heat close such a trade with the Portland Trail Blazers, you would be adding a salary that currently stands as 35% of the league’s overall cap and a far smaller percentage of the Heat cap, in light of the Heat operating well above the cap.

In fact, should Lillard be acquired, or perhaps even not, expect Butler to move to the front burner with his right to move into negotiations for an extension of a contract that otherwise expires in 2025-26 at $52.4 million that season (Lillard is due $58.6 million that season).

The numbers by themselves are somewhat absurd regarding grown men in short pants throwing a ball through a circle. But then also consider that Tom Cruise earned a reported $100 million in 2022, and he probably can’t even dunk. And for Matrix Reloaded, whose 138-minute running time is about the time of a single NBA game, Keanu Reeves earned a reported $45 million.

As for the NBA, in a salary-cap league, payroll is a percentage of revenue, one doesn’t jump unless the other is a slam dunk.

But what the Brown contract and others to follow show, including perhaps a Heat payroll to include Butler, Lillard and Adebayo, is that the NBA divide is mirroring the societal divide.

To get their books in order, the Celtics moved off Marcus Smart and parted with Grant Williams in free agency.

Ahead of their possible Lillard-a-thon, the Heat moved on from NBA Finals-run contributors Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

This is what NBA ownership put together in the new collective-bargaining agreement that went into effect on July 1. This is what NBA players signed off on with their vote of approval.

The haves will have plenty, staggering plenty, in coming years. The have-nots, not so much, at least in relative terms in a business where the minimum annual salary scale starts this coming season at $1 million for rookies and goes to $2.9 million for those with 10 or more seasons of experience.

At this point, getting caught up in the actual salaries is a fool’s errand.

Instead, play the percentages, which is what matters most in a salary-cap league.

And what likely will have Jimmy Butler asking for an extension soon enough, in essence asking for something even beyond Jaylen Brown money.

IN THE LANE

SOLVING THE Js: For as much faith as the Celtics showed in Jaylen Brown with his massive contract extension, it is not necessarily a move that needs to be immediately countered. This is not the Heat attempting to come up with answers for Giannis Antetokounmpo ahead of playoff matchups against the Milwaukee Bucks or even for Kevin Durant when he was with the Brooklyn Nets. With Kristaps Porzingis in but Marcus Smart and Grant Williams out, the Celtics are more different than necessarily upgraded. Still, it will be interesting to see the Heat approach going forward with Caleb Martin, who has been mentioned in Damian Lillard trade rumors and who can opt into free agency next summer. Arguably the MVP of this past season’s Eastern Conference finals (an award that went to Jimmy Butler by a single vote), Martin stands as a Heat defensive option against both Brown and Jayson Tatum. Without Martin, it would further raise the two-way ante for Butler. Further, with Kristaps Porzingis in the Celtics’ mix, it potentially reduces the opportunities to utilize Adebayo as a primary defender on Tatum. Brown’s extension might have indirectly changed the Heat’s calculus with Martin.

RINGS TRUE: In South Florida last weekend for a game in the Big 3 halfcourt circuit at Kaseya Center, Mario Chalmers said he would be onboard with the notion of some type of Heat ring of honor at the team’s arena. While players such as LeBron James and Butler sooner enough will have their jerseys in the rafters alongside those of Alonzo Mourning, Tim Hardaway, Shaquille O’Neal, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, there is a second tier of players from the franchise’s 35 seasons who arguably deserve a place in Heat posterity, players not necessarily of the level of retired jerseys, but of commemoration. “I would love that,” Chalmers said. “That would be a dream come true.” Such an approach would delineate the franchise’s ultimate stars while also allowing a place of appreciation for the likes of, say, Rony Seikaly, Grant Long, Glen Rice, Steve Smith, P.J. Brown, Dan Majerle, Jamal Mashburn, Chalmers, Goran Dragic and perhaps, if only for his one shining moment, Ray Allen. (It also would provide the Heat a means to reclassify those jerseys tucked in the rafters of Michael Jordan and Dan Marino.)

STILL A BUCKET: In the wake of the Big3’s visit to South Florida, former Heat forward Michael Beasley exited the weekend leading the league with his 21.8 scoring average. To put that into perspective (beyond, of course, the perspective of playing against some more than a decade older), Beasley is doing that in a league where games are played to 50. Beasley, 34, also leads the league with his 10.4 rebounds per game, ahead of the 9.6 of former Heat forward and teammate Rashard Lewis. Chalmers, 37, is fifth in the Big3 in assists.

STEPPING IN: Former Heat power forward Kyle Alexander not only has been signed by Israel’s Hapoel Tel Aviv, but among the players he reportedly beat out for that roster spot was former Heat center Hassan Whiteside. Alexander, 26, was with the Washington Wizards during summer league earlier this month. Whiteside, 34, had been playing in Puerto Rico, where he averaged 22.1 points, 13.4 rebounds and 2.6 blocks. In another international move involving a former Heat player, guard Briante Weber has signed to play the coming season in Italy.

NUMBER

76. NBA players, according to Spotrac, who will earn at least $20 million this coming season, including the Heat’s Jimmy Butler ($45.2 million), Bam Adebayo ($32.6 million), Kyle Lowry ($29.7 million) and Tyler Herro ($27 million). As Sportico notes, 32 of the 50 largest contracts in North American sports, by annual value, are held by NBA players.