Instant Analysis: Cowboys trade for Trey Lance, here’s what it means
The Dallas Cowboys completed a trade on Friday evening, just a day prior to their final exhibition game. Looking towards building out the depth on the roster, the club struck an agreement with the franchise that has ended their season in each of the last two years.
According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the club has agreed to trade a fourth-round draft pick to the San Francisco 49ers in order to acquire the No. 3 pick of the 2021 draft class, quarterback Trey Lance. Lance recently lost out the competition to be the 49ers backup behind 2022 seventh-round steal Brock Purdy. Lance left the team after the decision was revealed and on Friday was sent packing to Texas.
Trade: 49ers are sending their former No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys for a mid-round, per sources. Lance now gets a fresh start in Dallas. pic.twitter.com/UxKNpljktv
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 25, 2023
Compensation update: The #Cowboys are trading a 2024 fourth-round pick to the #49ers for QB Trey Lance, per source.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 25, 2023
But why?
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The Cowboys were able to survive five games without Dak Prescott in 2022 in the best way. Despite mediocre play from Cooper Rush, the club went 4-1 in their franchise QB’s absence to a broken hand suffered in the tail end of a Week 1 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Rush was serviceable, but was the quintessential bus driver with good luck with several interceptible passes going incomplete instead of become turnovers.
The team likely hoped Will Grier, who spent last season on the practice squad, could be the upside third quarterback, this season. However Grier has not been very impressive in extended action during the preseason.
Rush will likely still be the No. 2 quarterback for the foreseeable future, but Dallas likely is looking for more potential out of the role and Rush has probably hit his ceiling. Moving on from Grier is now likely as the club eyes a future with more upside from Prescott’s backup.
Nothing really to do with Dak Prescott
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
Despite Lance’s draft pedigree, there’s no reason for any sensible fan to look at this as a proclamation about how the team feels about Prescott. Despite setting a career high in intercecptions in 2022, the club is committed to Prescott as the QB of the future and is looking to give the quarterback his third contract. Signed through 2024, Prescott has a huge cap number and was able to negotiate both a no-trade and a no-tag clause during the last round of negotiations.
Something will need to be done in the next calendar year to bring down his monstrous $59.5 million cap hit next season. Prescott also is on the books to count $36 million against the 2025 cap despite being scheduled to be a free agent.
Still, acquiring Lance should be seen for what it is, taking a shot on a player who needed a fresh start but is unlikely to become the franchise QB some thought he would be coming out of college.
Lance stats and metrics
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Lance started four games over the last two seasons, with the 49ers sporting a 2-2 record in those contests. He’s completed 56 of his 102 career attempts, throwing for 797 yards with five touchdown passes against three interceptions.
Lance has also rushed 54 times for 235 yards and another score. At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Lance certainly looks the part of an NFL quarterback and is still just 23 years old. He’s basically the same age this season as Prescott was when he first played as a rookie.
Bad draft selection
(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
The 49ers gave up two additional first round picks and another third rounder in order to move up in the 2021 draft to select Lance. After just one season as a starter at North Dakota State, Lance flew up some teams draft boards, but he has struggled since being in the league.
Not only that, but the 2021 draft was loaded at the top. Not only did the 49ers overpay, but they passed up the following players who already have made at least one Pro Bowl:
No. 4 TE Kyle Pitts
No. 5 WR Ja’Marr Chase
No. 7 OT Penei Sewell
No. 9 CB Patrick Surtain Jr
No. 12 LB Micah Parsons
No. 13 OT Rashawn Slater
No. 15 QB Mac Jones
Cap ramifications
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Lance is cheap for the Cowboys to acquire, but expensive for the 49ers to send away. Still on his rookie contract, Dallas only takes on the base salary for the two remaining years. That’s just under $1 million for 2023 and just over $1 million for 2024.
In his wake, he leaves the 49ers with around $18 million in dead money split over the next two seasons.
Lance’s two remaining years of base salary are guaranteed as a top first-round pick. Grier is still on the team currently, but his $1.08 million salary was not guaranteed, so the Cowboys will actually be saving a minute amount of cap space by swapping in Lance.
The cost of the fourth-round pick seems high, but there were certainly other suitors to try and make Lance into a reclamation project.
Long-term view
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
If Lance does turn out to be a player over the next two seasons, then there is upside for the Cowboys on multiple levels. It’s no secret that Prescott has suffered a handful of injuries in recent years, so having a quarterback who could run a more full offense will certainly be helpful.
But what if Lance develops to the level of being a starting QB prospect?
While not anticipated, he would give the club insurance against the worst-case scenario in Prescott negotiations. In the expected world of another extension for Prescott, Lance could be a key free agent if his skillset ever catches up to his potential. QB salaries being what they are, a viable Lance would net the Cowboys a third-round comp pick in the 2026 draft were he to leave in 2025 free agency.
