What can the Indianapolis Colts expect from new starting QB Sam Ehlinger?
After Matt Ryan’s performance in the Indianapolis Colts’ 19-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, in which Ryan completed 33 of 44 passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, three sacks, and a passer rating of 76.2, head coach Frank Reich, general manager Chris Ballard, and team owner Jim Irsay had apparently had their fill of the veteran quarterback. Adding in the fact that Ryan is now suffering from a Grade 2 shoulder sprain, the decision was made to bench Ryan for the rest of the 2022 season, and start second-year sixth-round pick Sam Ehlinger in his place.
It’s a radical move for a veteran quarterback, especially factoring in that the Colts traded for Ryan from the Atlanta Falcons in March. Whether he plays in 2023 or not, the remainder of Ryan’s contract has him with a total 2022 cap hit of $18,705,882, and a total 2023 cap hit of $35,205,882. The Colts can mess with Ryan’s contract next season — there’s a $10 million roster bonus if he is on the roster at the start of the new league year, but there’s also an $18 million dead cap number next year.
Safe to say this did not work out for anybody involved. The Colts were hoping to find their franchise quarterback after a post-Andrew Luck journey that kept coming up short. From Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers to Carson Wentz to Ryan, Reich can’t seem to find the right guy — and both Wentz and Ryan were his hand-picked candidates.
So, now, there is Ehlinger. After he was selected in the 219th overall pick in the sixth round of the 2021 draft, Ehlinger had a horrid first preseason — he completed 21 of 31 passes for 288 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 57.7. Ehlinger didn’t throw a pass in the 2021 regular season, though he did have three rushing attempts for a total of nine yards.
In the 2022 preseason, Ehlinger was an entirely different quarterback. This time around, he completed 24 of 29 passes for 289 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 147.8 — the highest passer rating for any quarterback in the preseason, regardless of tenure.
The Colts are pulling Ryan from a complete disaster of a half-season in which he completed 203 of 297 passes for 2,011 yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, 24 sacks (which ties him with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals for the NFL lead), and a passer rating of 84.7, which ranks 22nd in the league. The tape has looked even worse than the stats, as Indianapolis’ offense has not enjoyed consistent performance from any sector. The offensive line, receivers, run game, and quarterback have all been sub-par.
So, the question is, how can Sam Ehlinger make it any better?
He's a "no-brainer Horseshoe fit," whatever that means.
(Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports)
The Colts really got on Ehlinger’s case as the 2021 Senior Bowl week started — between the practices and the game, he impressed Indy’s scouting staff enough to have them thinking that he was an ideal fit.
“We got a chance to interview him at the Senior Bowl,” Colts area scout Anthony Coughlan said of Ehlinger in June, 2021. “And really everything lined up with how the school vouched for him. Really, he was like a blue-collar guy for us. I thought he was a no-brainer Horseshoe fit, even from the Zoom calls over the summer in training camp with their staff, everybody just lights up about the kid, his competitive spirit, work ethic, mental toughness, physical toughness. So he’s just about everything we’re about, especially at that position it’s so important. We’re jacked to get him.
“Me and Matt [assistant director of college scouting Matt Terpening] talked to him at the Senior Bowl, there were a couple other scouts there and everybody from that conversation was just blown away — and really, just everything lined up with what the school said, and that’s what put the stamp on it.”
The version of Ehlinger who plied his trade at Texas was compared to Tim Tebow at times, due to his mobility, and the fact that his mechanics were an absolute mess. As former Touchdown Wire colleague Mark Schofield wrote about Ehlinger as he got ready for his Senior Bowl stint…
This week, you could tell that process was underway. Ehlinger’s throwing motion was more compact at times, and at other times the muscle memory kicked in and the deliberate nature crept back into play. Then there was the conservative nature to his play. Like [Notre Dame’s Ian] Book, Ehlinger was often willing to just check the ball down rather than attack in the tighter throwing windows. What to watch for Saturday? Does he challenge those windows, what do his mechanics look like when he does, and what are the results?
Ehlinger does have some athleticism and escapism to his game, and that matters in the modern NFL. Teams that draft him on the third day are going to trust in their ability to develop him, or at the least trust in his ability to do the work to improve himself in the off-season. He might be more of a lottery-ticket kind of selection, but if things break right that ticket could pan out.
Those mechanical issues stuck with him through his first NFL season, but work with performance coach Tom House at Ballard’s recommendation, and being in the building with Reich and a series of veteran quarterbacks (hopefully, he didn’t pick up too many mechanical tips from Wentz), had Ehlinger looking like a different guy. At least in the 2022 preseason, which is all we have to go on.
So here’s why Ehlinger’s elevation makes sense for the Colts in the short term.
Ehlinger won't cement his way into sacks as often.
(Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)
I watched tape with Matt Ryan twice in 2021, and if there are five quarterbacks in the NFL today who understand the nuances of the position more completely than he does, I’d like to know who all of them are. But as was the case with Rivers in a Colts uniform in 2020: Rivers is a ridiculous football genius, but when your body won’t do what your mind wants it to, that’s irrelevant, unless you’re about to go into coaching.
At this point in his career, Ryan didn’t possess the functional mobility to throw outside the pocket in boot concepts. He wasn’t mobile enough to avoid pressure, and he certainly wasn’t mobile enough to prevent his block from getting knocked off behind a horribly underperforming offensive line. As Reich concluded during the Monday press conference announcing the move, this was the crux of the decision.
“This is another point that need to be made crystal clear, and I told this to Matt — we did not hold up our end of the bargain here,” Reich said. “I mean, you came here and we promised you one of the top NFL rushing games and we promised you great protection, and we haven’t really as an offense delivered on that, and that starts with me.”
As he showed on this 25-yard pass to receiver Mike Strachan in the Colts’ second preseason game against the Lions, Ehlinger now has a nice combination of out-of-pocket movement, and the kind of velocity required to make off-platform throws.
“Sam as we all know, we’ve all witnessed he has the capability to do that,” Reich said Monday of Ehlinger’s ability to get on the move and get the ball downfield. “And sometimes in a game, it’s those one or two third down conversions on a scramble that can make the difference in the game.”
Winning as a runner.
(Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports)
Well, if you want scrambles, Ehlinger’s got ’em. Like most any young quarterback with the ability to run, he’ll sometimes pass up an opening receiver for the easier scramble, but he’s also pretty effective with it. On this 45-yard touchdown run against the Buccaneers in the preseason finale, Ehlinger had Strachan coming open deep from the left. but he had already made his mind up to run… and while you would want to ask him about the process, it’s hard to argue with the results.
Putting it all together.
(Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)
In the end, the Colts didn’t make this decision because of Ehlinger’s athletic traits — they did so because they’ve seen the kinds of development as a quarterback they needed to see to avoid being laughed right out of the city if Ehlinger came in and barfed the ball all over the field.
“This is a testament to Sam,” Reich said. “But this is what we tell players all the time, every play is evaluated. You’re being evaluated — coaches, players, head coaches, position coaches — you’re being evaluated every second of every day you’re in this building. That’s the way it works when you’re in the most competitive industry, and I told Chris Ballard last week, Sam had one of the best weeks of practice I’ve ever seen him have — he made four or five what I would say to you are elite throws. I mean elite, big-time throws down the field, threading coverage, putting the ball right where it should be. Those things don’t go unnoticed. Those things factor in to the decision. He’s continued to do that this year.”
Fair enough. Looking at Ehlinger’s third-down plays in the preseason, this 12-yard touchdown to tight end Michael Jacobsen against the Bills stood out. Buffalo’s receivers plastered Ehlinger’s receivers all over the short field, and if Ehlinger wanted Jacobsen at the top of the flood concept, he was going to have to wait for Jacobsen to disengage, which he did.
There are flaws to Ehlinger’s game. There are times when he’s too deliberate in the pocket, which again is not a great sign when your offensive line is sucking wind. But he’s turned himself into a relatively mistake-proof quarterback, at least against preseason competition, and for that reason alone, married to the attributes that will at least open a window on Reich’s shedded offense, the switch to Ehlinger makes some sense. It also makes sense to give Ehlinger time to work things out and make mistakes, as he obviously will
The Colts didn’t ask for this quarterback quandary — it’s the last thing they wanted. But there is some potential that indicates it working out to some degree; it’s not entirely a move of desperation.
A partial move of desperation? Absolutely. But that’s how a lot of lower-graded quarterbacks get their chances.
