Houston Texans select C.J. Stroud with the second pick. Grade: A+
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Take the S2 test and throw it right out the window. If you want to know about Stroud’s cognitive skills, go watch the Georgia game, and any other game last season in which Stroud sliced and diced his opponents with ball placement, accuracy, and a great overall sense of the attributes required for the position.
Height: 6’3″ (54th percentile) Weight: 214 (25th)
40-Yard Dash: N/A
10-Yard Split: N/A
Bench Press: N/A
Vertical Jump: N/A
Broad Jump: N/A
3-Cone Drill: N/A
20-Yard Shuttle: N/A
Wingspan: N/A
Arm Length: 32⅝” (71st)
Hand Size: 10″ (80th)
Bio: Coleridge Bernard “C.J.” Stroud IV attended Rancho Cucamonga High School in Inland Empire, California. He and his family have faced serious adversity — his father was arrested in 2015 on counts of carjacking, kidnapping, robbery and misdemeanor sexual battery, and is currently serving a 38-year sentence at Folsom State Prison. Stroud and his three siblings experienced financial hardship, but that didn’t keep Stroud, who grew up without the benefits of elite quarterback coaching, from playing on the varsity team all four years. He earned U.S. Army All-America honors, and was also Rancho Cucamonga’s starting shooting guard.
A four-star recruit, Stroud found the college offers slow to come in until he won Most Valuable Player at the 7-on-7 The Opening tournament in July, 2019. Julian Fleming and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, two receivers on Stroud’s team there who had already committed to Ohio State, put in good words for him, and Stroud chose the Buckeyes over Georgia in the end. In two seasons as Ohio State’s starting quarterback, Stroud completed 574 of 833 attempts for 8,108 yards, 85 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 128.1. He also ran 80 times for 136 yards and a touchdown.
Stat to Know: When throwing outside the pocket in 2022, Stroud completed 39 of 69 passes for 473 yards, 311 air yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 117.3.
Strengths: Stroud had an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 72.8% last season (PFF’s metric which totals the rate of aimed passes thrown on target (completions + drops / aimed), and his ball placement is the best in this class of quarterbacks. PFF also has Stroud’s 26.7% rate of perfectly-placed passes as the best among FBS quarterbacks since 2021. Stroud is mechanically tied together from his feet to his delivery, and you don’t often see him just scorch one in there that’s wildly off-target. He has eminent big-play potential with a very high floor when it comes to placement and accuracy.
We saw that ball placement against Georgia in the College Football Semifinal in a different way, of course — all of a sudden, Stroud was effectively and efficiently mobile to a level that convinces you that, though you didn’t see it a lot on tape before that game, he’s clearly refined it to a high level. This 31-yard roll-right touchdown pass to Marvin Harrison Jr., in which Stroud is basically calling his shot outside of structure, is a throw not a lot of NFL quarterbacks can make.
Weaknesses: There is a narrative about Ohio State’s offense which states that their quarterbacks benefit greatly from a lack of pressure, and from receivers just standing open all over the place. It would be a mistake to put too many of Stroud’s positive plays on that and ignore what he brings to them, but there are also times when the combination of pressure and muddy pictures downfield can lead to calamity. This interception against Michigan is one such example, and it’s especially worrisome because a guy with Stroud’s arm talent should have easily hit tight end Cade Stover right up the middle on the inside of 3×1.
And while Stroud can throw on the move, he does lose velocity at times when he does so, and his decision-making reduces in scope. This pick against Iowa was particularly ugly.
Conclusion: Stroud’s wildly divergent numbers against different types of pressure — he threw 21 touchdowns to two interceptions when blitzed, and six touchdowns to two interceptions when actually pressured — tells you a few things about where he is now in his timeline. Yes, he had the benefit of a ridiculous offensive line and first-round receivers all over the place, but we also need to avoid taking away too much from Stroud himself. We also need to avoid scouting the helmet. Ohio State’s history of quarterbacks moving onto the NFL is startlingly bad for such a prominent school, but Stroud has more than enough on the ball as a pro-style quarterback to make the transition fairly seamless.
It’s also important to re-emphasize how refined Stroud is as a quarterback despite a relative lack of help from a performance coaching perspective, and a horrific family situation to transcend. These things don’t show up on tape, but they do matter. A lot.
NFL Comparison: Sam Bradford. We’re talking about the Bradford who would light up NFL fields occasionally with good-not-great velocity, easy movement, and ridiculous ball placement, not the Bradford who unfortunately couldn’t stay healthy. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Bradford had the same kinds of easy ball placement and velocity, as well as surprising mobility, that make Stroud such a compelling prospect.
