Here's why extending Pete Alonso should be one of David Stearns' first moves, and what it should cost

When it was reported at the trade deadline that the Mets had at least answered the phone when it came to Pete Alonso, it wasn't totally shocking.

New York was in the midst of waving the white flag on a season that started with World Series expectations, unloading not only players who were set to be free agents after the season but huge pieces -- like Justin Verlander -- who were under contract through 2024.

Alonso isn't under contract yet for 2024, but he is under team control, set to enter his final year of arbitration before becoming eligible for free agency.

So again, to hear his name come up wasn't surprising.

What was surprising, though, was the chatter in the weeks that followed.

There were multiple people reporting or at least suggesting that the Mets would trade Alonso in the offseason, with some theorizing that he didn't fit the club's new serious contention window.

About that contention window...

To listen to Max Scherzer tell it -- after speaking with team brass before waiving his no-trade clause to go to the Texas Rangers -- the Mets didn't plan to compete for a World Series until 2026.

To listen to Billy Eppler and Steve Cohen (who has been effusive in his praise of Alonso) tell it, the Mets are going to take a bit of a step back in 2024, but still plan to be significantly involved in the free agent market this offseason -- especially as it pertains to bolstering the starting rotation. And they'll still have one of the highest payrolls in the sport next season.

The Mets are likely to be among the top suitors for Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and could also strongly pursue Shohei Ohtani if he's open to leaving the West Coast.

So while the Mets might not enter the 2024 season with the same title hopes they entered 2023 with, there's no reason to believe they won't be a playoff contender.

And with an influx of high-impact prospects expected beginning next season -- including Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, and potentially the fast-rising Jett Williams -- the Mets could be a well-oiled force by the time 2025 begins.

Coincidentally, 2025 will be the first year of any new deal for Alonso, when he'll be entering his age-30 season. That means that he absolutely fits their timeline -- and David Stearns said Monday that he expects Alonso to be the Opening Day first baseman in 2024.

For the reasons that will be outlined below, Stearns and the Mets extending him this offseason should be an absolute no-brainer...

As a player, Alonso has simply been the best home run hitter in baseball since he entered the league in 2019.

In five seasons, including one that was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Alonso has hit 192 home runs, including three seasons of 40-plus homers and a 53-homer season in his rookie year that broke the all-time single-season record for rookies.

But he's not just a power hitter.

Alonso's batting average dipped this season, but he's a career .251/.342/.528 hitter -- a guy who will shorten up when needed and gets on base at a very strong clip.

He has also turned himself into a solid first baseman after early doubts about his viability there.

When talking about an extension for Alonso, it's also incredibly important to note that he doesn't profile as someone whose drop-off will arrive early or be especially steep.

Unlike some other power hitters, Alonso is remarkably consistent and does not strike out a ton. He racked up 183 K's in his rookie season but struck out just 127 times in 2021 and 128 times in 2022. His K's ticked up to 151 in 2023, but even that number is more than manageable for someone with as much power as Alonso.

For comparison, Kyle Schwarber has struck out 200-plus times each of the last two seasons. Going back a bit, Chris Davis -- whose long-term deal with the Baltimore Orioles was one of the worst ever given out -- averaged 203 strikeouts a season from 2015 to 2018 (he signed his megadeal in January of 2016).

There's also what Alonso means to the team and the fans.

He is a homegrown player who is on track to break many of the Mets' all-time offensive records and actually loves being a Met and wants to be in New York (which was not the case with Jacob deGrom). The Mets would also have a serious dearth of power without Alonso.

This isn't a call for the Mets to do something no matter the cost, but there really shouldn't be a concern here about the team and Alonso finding common ground on a deal.

Entering his age-32 season, Freddie Freeman signed a six-year, $162 million free agent deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Ahead of his age-28 season, Matt Olson signed an eight-year extension with the Atlanta Braves worth $168 million.

Neither Freeman (a more well-rounded hitter) nor Olson (who was younger and two full years from free agency when he signed his deal) is a perfect comp for Alonso, but it's close enough. And what they got should help color what Alonso should expect to get -- and what he deserves to get.

Alonso's camp could demand 10 years, but he, his agents, and the Mets have to know he's not getting that -- in New York or anywhere else. Deals that are a decade or longer are almost always reserved for players who play premium positions and/or are younger than Alonso will be when he hits free agency.

A fair compromise could be the Mets ripping up Alonso's final year of arbitration and giving him an eight-year deal that starts in 2024 and is worth $200 million. That would give him an average annual value of $25 million -- a good amount more than Olson's AAV but a tick lower than Freeman's.

Reaching a deal with Alonso would in some ways be a sentimental move. The Mets should not want to lose him like the Boston Red Sox lost Mookie Betts. But keeping Alonso also happens to be a smart baseball decision. It's time for the Mets to get it done.