Heat offseason preview: Tyler Herro extension, free agents and trade market

Yossi Gozlan

Sun, May 29, 2022, 11:16 PM·9 min read

Miami made a deep playoff run with what may be the most “Heat Culture” team ever in franchise history. They finished first in the Eastern Conference despite having no All-NBA players and being hit by plenty of injuries/load management for most of its starters. Jimmy Butler and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Bam Adebayo led this team to the fourth-best defensive rating this season. They also hit the jackpot on four young players on minimum deals who helped keep them afloat while their core players missed time.

This Heat squad is definitely good enough to win a championship and were very close, but they need to improve on the offensive end. The roster is mostly set going into next season but they could make another strong free-agent addition and could become a sneaky dark horse to trade for an impactful player.

The hard cap and free agents

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Miami is heading into the offseason $13.3 million below the luxury tax assuming PJ Tucker exercises his $7.4 million player option. It’s possible he opts out to receive a slight raise and potentially more years added onto his deal. If he opts out, plenty of teams should be interested in the 37-year-old’s services. The Heat can give Tucker a maximum starting salary of $8.4 million through his Non-Bird rights.

Tucker’s additional $1 million raise shouldn’t impact their offseason plans. They currently are projected to have access to the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (MLE), which would hard cap them. It’s possible they opt to use the taxpayer MLE projected at $6.4 million instead in order to be able to surpass the $156 million apron if a trade opportunity calls for it. Backup center could be a priority with their MLE.

Miami has several free agents they could look to re-sign. Victor Oladipo most notably was relied upon for heavy backup minutes and key defensive assignments in the playoffs. They will have no limitations in re-signing him since they hold his full Bird rights. Caleb Martin is another hidden gem the Heat found last offseason but is headed to free agency. They can tender him a $2.1 million offer sheet to make him a restricted free agent.

Extend or not extend Tyler Herro

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Miami’s lone extension-eligible player this offseason will be fourth-year guard Tyler Herro. He had a career-best season averaging 20.7 points per game on 56 percent true shooting and won Sixth Man of the Year. As important as he was in the regular season, his numbers went down in the playoffs and was often the point of attack on defense, which is a big reason he continues to come off the bench.

Herro’s next contract feels like it could come with a lot of variance. On one hand, the Heat might view him as an elite scorer off the bench and want to pay him as such. One comparison could be the four years, $50 million Utah gave Jordan Clarkson, the previous Sixth Man of the Year. On the other hand, another team might think he’s being underutilized and want to offer him a much more lucrative deal in free agency. What Jordan Poole gets on his next deal could influence Herro’s number.

There are multiple reasons as to why an agreement might not get done. The biggest would be a potential disparity in negotiations, especially if the Heat want to see Herro improve enough to the point that he can hang defensively with their starters. It’s also possible Miami doesn’t view him as a long-term core piece and make him available for trade. If an opportunity arises this offseason, it’s easier to trade Herro without an extension since his incoming salary in a trade for his new team wouldn’t be complicated by the poison pill provision.

Trade market

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Miami might not have any blue chip assets or flexibility to put on the table to make a big trade, yet time and time again they manage to get into the bidding for players they may not necessarily have the strongest trade package for. Their acquisitions of Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, and most recently Kyle Lowry have proven that. If scoring guards like Bradley Beal or Donovan Mitchell become available, expect to at least hear about the Heat getting into the mix.

The Heat’s biggest assets include Herro, whose value could be in the eye of the beholder, as well as up to three first-round picks. They can trade either their 2022 or 2023 first-round pick thanks to the mid-season trade with Oklahoma City where they delayed their owed pick obligation from 2023 to 2025. They could also trade either their 2028 or 2029 first-round pick, but could also trade their 2027 first-round pick conditionally in addition to their 2029 pick.

Duncan Robinson seems to be their most likely candidate to be included in a potential trade for salary matching purposes. His remaining four years, $75 million may not be appealing considering he got completely cut from the Heat’s rotation, but he could still be of value to the right team. Robinson and Herro can bring back up to $24.7 million in salary in a trade, so it’s possible they might need to include more salary to acquire the biggest fish.

Ideally, the Heat would want to keep Tucker and their minimum players, so Oladipo’s unique situation could make him a factor in a potential trade. They could include him in a sign-and-trade where he gets a raise substantial enough to inflate the Heat’s outgoing salary. He would need to receive at least a three-year deal with the first-year guaranteed to participate in a sign-and-trade. Due to earning a minimum contract last season, Base Year Compensation will lower his outgoing salary in a sign-and-trade by 50 percent.

2022-23 SALARY SITUATION

Guaranteed salaries: $128,522,450

Non-guaranteed salaries: $7,136,630

Total salary: $135,659,080

Luxury tax space: $13.3 million

Exceptions:

Non-taxpayer Mid-level: $10,349,000

Bi-Annual: $4,050,000

KZ Okpala trade exception: $1,782,621 (expires on February 9, 2023)

Jimmy Butler

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2022-23 salary: $37,653,300

Remaining salary guaranteed: $182,918,700 through 2025-26

Additional notes: Butler has a player option worth $52 million in 2025-26.

He also has a 15 percent trade bonus that would raise his salary to the maximum amount if traded this season.

Bam Adebayo

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2022-23 salary: $30,351,780

Remaining salary guaranteed: $134,896,800 through 2025-26

Kyle Lowry

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2022-23 salary: $28,333,334

Remaining salary guaranteed: $58,015,874 through 2023-24

Duncan Robinson

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2022-23 salary: $16,902,000

Remaining salary guaranteed: $64,350,000 through 2025-26

Additional notes: Robinson has an early termination option for 2025-26.

His $19.9 million salary for 2025-26 is partially guaranteed for $9.9 million.

PJ Tucker

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2022-23 salary: $7,350,000 (player option)

Remaining salary guaranteed: $7,350,000

Additional notes: If Tucker declines his player option, he can re-sign with the Heat for up to three years, $26.5 million

Tyler Herro

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2022-23 salary: $5,722,116

Remaining salary guaranteed: $5,722,116

Additional notes: Herro is eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension through the day before the regular season.

Max Strus