What happened the last 10 times LSU began the year ranked in the top 10
The preseason AP Poll was released on Monday, and LSU was ranked No. 5.
It’s the Tigers’ highest preseason ranking since 2019, where LSU was also ranked fifth. It’s the Tigers first time back in the preseason top 10 since 2020.
For Brian Kelly, it’s a familiar spot. His final three teams at Notre Dame all ranked in the top 10 to start the year. His final two of those squads both finished higher than where they started.
It’s Kelly’s first time with real expectations at LSU. Last year, the Tigers were unranked in the initial poll entering what was thought to be a rebuilding year.
Let’s see how LSU’s fared in its last 10 seasons where it began the year ranked in the top 10.
1998
LSU entered 1998 with high hopes after sitting top 15 in the final AP Poll the previous two years.
The Tigers were ranked No. 9 to begin the year and opened 3-0 against three unranked opponents. But when LSU got deeper into conference play, it fell apart.
LSU lost three in a row to get to 3-3. Gerry DiNardo’s group would only win one more the rest of the way and finish the year 4-7.
The 1998 group is the only team on this list to open in the top 10 but finish with a losing record. DiNardo was fired the following season.
2004
Coming off a national title in 2003, the 2004 Tigers began the year at No. 4.
This would be Nick Saban’s final year in Baton Rouge and the Tigers began the schedule 2-0 before dropping one on the road at Auburn.
LSU would only lose once more in the regular season, on the road against the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs.
LSU earned a trip to the Capital One Bowl against No. 11 Iowa, where LSU lost 30-25 to finish the year 9-3.
It wasn’t a bad season, but LSU finished No. 16 in the final poll, a good bit below where it opened at No. 4.
2005
Les Miles took over a talented team in 2005. LSU opened the year at No. 5 with JaMarcus Russell set to lead the Tigers at QB.
LSU dropped one early in the year to Tennessee before ripping off 10 wins in a row to get to the SEC Championship Game.
LSU went to Atlanta at No. 3 to face the No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs. It was a disappointing effort for LSU, losing 34-10 to the lesser ranked squad.
The year was still good enough for a Peach Bowl invite. LSU laid it on Miami 40-3 in Atlanta and finished the year at No. 6, one spot below where it started.
2006
The strong finish in 2005 and the return of Russell put LSU back in the top 10 to open 2006.
It was a good year for the Tigers. LSU went 10-2 in the regular season with the only losses coming at the hands of top-five opponents. LSU capped it off with a 31-26 win over No. 5 Arkansas.
For the second straight year, LSU was back in a BCS bowl. This time facing Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl.
It was another blowout. LSU won 41-14 and finished at No. 3 in the final poll.
2007
The expectations were even higher entering 2007. LSU lost the first overall pick in Russell but returned a hoist of talent. LSU was proving itself as a squad that could compete at the top of the sport every year.
Despite losing two games, LSU earned a spot in the BCS title game against top-ranked Ohio State.
LSU got the best of the Buckeyes and won 38-24. Finishing the year ranked No. 1, the Tigers were the undisputed national champions.
2008
After the national title, LSU entered 2008 at No. 7.
This was a young team, but still began the year 4-0, including a win on the road against No. 10 Auburn.
But the going got tough and LSU lost three games to ranked opponents over the next month. Then to finish the regular season, LSU dropped two in a row to Ole Miss and Arkansas. It was a disappointing 7-5 for a team that began the year in the top 10.
The Tigers beat Georgia Tech in the bowl game but finished the year unranked and 3-5 in conference play.
2011
LSU took a couple years out of the preseason top 10, but by 2011, that young team was grown up and the expectations were back.
LSU opened the year with a big win over Oregon and rode a dominant regular season all the way to the SEC Championship, where LSU notched an emphatic win over Georgia.
But as the story goes, LSU lost the rematch to Alabama in the national title thanks to a stagnant offense that never crossed the 50-yard line.
LSU finished the year at No. 2, higher than where it started, but the final game left a sour taste.
2012
LSU was still loaded with talent in 2012 and started the year at No. 3.
LSU opened the year 5-0, but fell on the road at No. 10 Florida. LSU got back in the win column the next week with an upset of No. 3 South Carolina and then a win over Johnny Manziel’s Texas A&M.
It set up a showdown with Alabama. A win would put LSU right back in the national title race. LSU lost in heartbreaking fashion with T.J. Yeldon scoring in the final seconds.
A loss in the bowl game put LSU at 10-3 on the year and LSU finished outside the top 10 in the final AP Poll.
2016
LSU entered 2016 with its most talented team in some time.
Several players passed on the NFL draft to return to Baton Rouge, and Leonard Fournette was entering his junior year.
The cheer was dampened quickly with a loss against Wisconsin to open the year. LSU’s offense continued to struggle, and the Tigers lost another one at Auburn in Week 4.
That would be the end of the Miles era at LSU as he was let go the next day.
Ed Orgeron took over, and LSU saw dramatic improvement. LSU played impressive football down the stretch and finished the year at No. 13 in the final AP Poll.
2019
With nearly the entire offense returning, LSU opened 2019 at No. 5. With veteran QB Joe Burrow, many thought LSU could compete in the SEC West.
LSU did a lot more than that. Burrow lit up college football on the way to winning a Heisman and LSU went 15-0 and won the national title.
It’s one of the best teams the sport has seen and that offense might be the most talented of all time.
It goes without saying, but LSU finished at No. 1 in the final poll.
2020
Despite losing several key players and assistant coaches after the title, LSU began 2020 ranked No. 6.
A lot happened in between the conclusion of 2019 and the start of 2020. College football, just like the rest of the world, was disrupted by a global pandemic.
At one point, we didn’t even think there would be a season. All offseason, teams weren’t sure of when they could practice.
This made it difficult for everyone, but especially for a team in LSU’s position. It also led to the opt-out of star receiver Ja’Marr Chase as a few of the sport’s top stars decided it was in their best interest to begin preparing for the draft.
LSU’s defense was atrocious and the injuries piled up. LSU finished the season 5-5 and unranked.
2023?
LSU’s back in the top five to start the year for the first time since 2020.
When 2022 ended, we thought the Tigers would be ranked high to begin the year. But hype built and built over the offseason, leading LSU all the way up to No. 5.
These days, there’s a big difference between five and one. Evidenced by all the No. 1 vs. No. 4 blowouts we’ve seen in the playoff.
And as we’ve seen, a high ranking to start the year is no promise of success. Three of the last 10 times LSU began the year in the top 10, it finished unranked. Three more times it finished outside of the top 10.
So more times than not, a top 10 ranking before the year has led to LSU finishing outside of that to cap the year.
We’ll see what 2023 holds for Kelly’s Tigers.
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