Some good, some bad: 10 Buffalo Bills players who've had surprising seasons so far

ORCHARD PARK - Restlessness would be an appropriate way to describe the feeling among Buffalo Bills fans as the second half of the NFL season is underway.

At 5-4, this is not what many expected — not Bills fans, NFL fans, media, and certainly not anyone in the Bills’ organization — from a team that had won three consecutive AFC East division titles, still had one of the best quarterbacks in the league operating an offense that looked to be as good as any in the league, and a defense filled with veteran players.

But here we are with the Bills currently out of the top seven in the AFC, staring at a schedule that is one of the toughest in the NFL. The sobering possibility is that for the first time since Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season, Buffalo could be in danger of missing the playoffs.

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Just don’t tell that to coach Sean McDermott who earlier in the week reiterated that there’s a long way to go, with a lot that can change in the Bills’ favor over these final two months of the regular season.

“Confident,” McDermott said when asked to describe his feelings about whether he thinks the Bills can get back on track starting Monday night at home against the Denver Broncos. “Confident in our coaches, confident in our players, confident in our staff. It doesn’t mean we don’t have work to do. It doesn’t mean we don’t have a gap to close.

“And there’s different things that make up that gap, so we’ve got to continue to drill down on those areas and play better as an overall team, complementary-wise, and reset some things that we need to reset.”

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As we straddle the middle of the 17-game season, last week I gave you my midseason report card and today, I present five players who I think have been pleasant surprises in 2023 and will need to continue playing well, and five players who have underwhelmed and need to pick it up in order for the Bills to get things back on track.

Starting with the positive, here are five players who have been somewhat unexpected success stories:

LB Terrel Bernard

Without a doubt the biggest question for the Bills heading into the season was who would they ask to fill the sizable cleats of departed MLB Tremaine Edmunds. Because a hamstring injury forced Bernard to miss the entire preseason, it seemed like Tyrel Dodson would get the first crack but in a bit of a surprise, McDermott chose Bernard despite his lack of experience.

That proved to be a stroke of genius because despite his lack of size, especially compared to Edmunds, the 2022 third-round pick has been one of the Bills’ best players. The biggest knock on Edmunds was always his inability to make splash plays and in his 74-game Bills career he had only five takeaways, all interceptions. Bernard already has five takeaways (two interceptions, three fumble recoveries) in nine games, plus two sacks and 102 tackles, though he does need to improve in pass coverage.

He is in concussion protocol this week and has only practiced on a limited basis. If he misses the Denver game, that’s a key loss for Buffalo.

CB Christian Benford

His rookie 2022 season was impressive given that, as a sixth-round pick he beat out first-rounder Kaiir Elam. But ultimately, injuries derailed Benford and he played in only nine games. This year he has played in eight, starting them all as Elam has become irrelevant, though it looks like Benford is going to miss his second game Monday night with a hamstring.

When healthy, Benford has broken up five passes, though he has allowed a 71% completion percentage against, but yards after catch isn’t a problem because he’s a reliable tackler who has made 30 this year without missing one.

DE A.J. Epenesa

Across his 3 ½-year career in Buffalo the edge rusher hasn’t lived up to his draft status as a second-round pick in 2020, but there was progress last year when he recorded 6.5 sacks, 30 pressures and four batted down passes. Going into his free agent year, Epenesa came out guns blazing including a huge game against the Jaguars when he had two sacks, six pressures and three deflected passes.

He has cooled a bit since then but still has five sacks, 21 pressures, five deflections, a forced fumble and a recovery as he has helped the Bills overcome the absence, and then the lack of production from Von Miller.

RT Spencer Brown

His first two seasons were marred by injuries and insufficient play, and going into year three it was no secret that the heat was on Brown to not be the continued weak link up front. He hasn’t been.

According to Pro Football Focus Brown has allowed only two sacks and 19 pressures on 387 pass block snaps. PFF has LT Dion Dawkins as its highest-graded Bills offensive lineman, but he actually has allowed 20 pressures (with one sack). And in run blocking, PFF has Brown graded No. 1 on the team. There is room to grow, but the 2021 third-round pick has played every snap this year and is improving.

WR Khalil Shakir

I’m not going to make the case that Shakir has been a true difference maker, because he hasn’t been. But based on expectations before the season and where he figured to sit on the depth chart, the 2022 fifth-round draft pick has done some nice things that he can build on in the second half.

Ever since TE Dawson Knox went out, the Bills have switched to a three-receiver approach and Shakir has been the choice at No. 3 ahead of Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield. In those two-plus games, Shakir has caught all 14 of his targets for 184 yards with eight of those receptions resulting in first downs.

And here are five players who have been underwhelming:

WR Deonte Harty

The Bills signed the former Saints gadget guy to a two-year contract that included $5.25 million guaranteed. You can file that away as a sunk cost because as of right now, he’s one of the poorer Brandon Beane free agent signings. When the sides agreed in March, it seemed like Harty was going to be the slot receiver, but then the Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid for that role a month later.

Now, Harty barely gets on the field. He has played only 111 offensive snaps and has 13 catches on 17 targets for a mere 113 yards, 46 of those on one play. He has become the full-time punt returner but that has yielded 99 yards on 11 attempts.

TE Dawson Knox

Before Knox went on injured reserve and underwent wrist surgery, he was completely invisible in the offense. He had only 15 catches for 102 yards with a high game of 25 yards in the opener against the Jets. The Bills played the first seven games primarily in 12 personnel with Knox and Kincaid as the dual tight ends, but neither was really thriving.

Now that Knox is out, Kincaid has become one of Allen’s most trusted targets and when Knox returns, it seems pretty clear that the Bills should stay in 11 personnel and go with Kincaid as the primary tight end. Knox just signed an extension last season that included a whopping $31.2 million in guaranteed money, and to date that certainly hasn’t worked out.

DT Poona Ford

Ford was supposed to give the Bills a reliable three-technique backup to Ed Oliver in the D-line rotation. Instead, he has been inactive for four games and when he has played, he has registered only four pressures and seven tackles while grading out poorly against the run according to PFF.

Ford’s lack of performance, along with underwhelming seasons from Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle, forced the Bills to sign 35-year-old DT Linval Joseph off the street last week to bulk up the run defense.

S Taylor Rapp

The beat goes on for questionable 2023 free agent signings. When Rapp left the Rams, where he was a versatile four-year starter, it felt like a shrewd move because on a one-year deal the Bills could see what he was, and if they liked him, they could try to extend his contract with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer both aging out.

Instead, Rapp has been a disappointment. He has been poor in run support and when the Bills have gone to a three-safety defense out of necessity — Matt Milano got hurt and Dodson is a liability in pass coverage — Rapp assumed that role but he has not been reliable in coverage, to the point where there were a couple games where he didn’t even play snaps on defense, only special teams.

LB Von Miller

Understanding that the 34-year-old is still working his way back from ACL surgery, it has nonetheless been an awful five games for the future Hall of Famer. His performance augments the argument I have made that he came back too soon, and the numbers back that up — in 102 snaps he has one tackle, one pressure.

Miller’s snaps have not helped the Bills at all because he’s being neutralized rather easily by single blockers and thus is not even drawing attention away from defenders. The ever-upbeat star keeps saying that it’s coming, and McDermott says the same thing, but so far he has been a complete non-factor and the whispers are that at his age, he might simply be in irreversible decline.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: 10 Buffalo Bills who've either been surprisingly good or bad in 2023