Will Giants’ selection of Saquon Barkley serve as a cautionary tale?
Did the New York Giants make a mistake selecting running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft? Depending on who you ask, you’ll get a different answer.
At the time, there was already a debate over positional value and where running backs fit into the mold. The NFL was clearly trending toward more vertical offenses and downfield passing, which arguably devalued certain positions — running back being one.
After he was lost to injury in back-to-back seasons, questions regarding Barkley’s value and general manager Dave Gettleman’s decision to take him over a quarterback have grown louder. In fact, Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated believes it should be a warning for other teams.
“Saquon Barkley is probably going to be held up as the cautionary tale,” Orr told “The DA Show” this week. “If you’re Dave Gettleman, I understood why you did it, and maybe you get another 1,200- or 1,500-yard season out of him and it feels worthwhile. But just look at the effort that is spent not only on that pick, but to rationalize the pick, and all the trade capital that went into getting other offensive linemen, through free agent money to get [veteran lineman] Nate Solder.
“You’re probably going to go offensive line again in this draft, just to make that pick work and to make it function, when there’s been running backs out there that have had better production than Saquon Barkley and will probably have better production than Saquon Barkley over this window. It’s just the nature of the position. And I think that might be the last [top pick for a running back]. And look at Ezekiel Elliott — that contract is starting to look like a huge albatross for Dallas.”
Betting on future production or a lack of production out of any player at any position can itself become a cautionary tale, but Orr isn’t necessarily wrong in relation to Barkley.
The Giants have failed to fix their offensive line despite a seemingly endless slew of investments, which is another cautionary tale. But to his credit, Barkley has been productive despite that, limited only by his injuries.
But the game has changed, and the argument that the value simply isn’t there for running backs over the first 15 to 20 picks holds water. And although the game will evolve and change more over time, that’s reality.
“I think it’s interesting. The analytic model, its vise grip on the NFL is tightening,” Orr said. “And I think that GM’s are expected by their owners now [to understand analytics], because analytics are something that is more universal and it’s something that owners understand. And if that’s the prevailing model, they’re going to start questioning their GM: ‘Why are we doing this? Why are we drafting this guy in the first round when we can get value in the third, fourth or fifth round?’ And running backs seem to be the ones that have sort of suffered the most.”
