Gene Frenette: Jaguars' first-round pick Thomas has legitimate shot to set rookie receiving mark
Despite the Jaguars’ suspect history of drafting first-round receivers, the resumes from the rookie years of the three most recent LSU wideouts selected in the first round bodes well for the prospects of No. 23 overall pick Brian Thomas Jr.
All of them had production so incredible right out of the gate, those Tigers rank up there with the top rookies in NFL history.
Ja’Marr Chase, the No. 5 choice of the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021, Justin Jefferson (No. 23, Minnesota Vikings, 2020) and Odell Beckham Jr. (No. 12, New York Giants, 2014) each had monster first seasons.
Gene Frenette: Jaguars, Baalke loading up on SEC talent to try and get their groove back
Chase caught 81 passes for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns, earning Rookie of the Year honors, an award that Beckham also won with 91 receptions for 1,305 yards and 12 TDs.
Both Chase and Beckham were named to the Pro Bowl, as was Jefferson with sterling numbers of 88 catches, 1,400 yards and seven TDs. Jefferson was ROY runner-up to Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert.
So if Thomas comes anywhere close to following the pattern of those LSU first-round picks at the same position, — they averaged 87 catches, 1,387 yards and 11 TDs — he will be an instant star in Jacksonville and easily eclipse the Jaguars’ rookie receiving records in the most pertinent categories.
Reaching the highest standard for Jacksonville rookie receivers should be doable for Thomas with his body frame (6-foot-3, 209 pounds) and sub-4.4 speed. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence having dangerous weapons in Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram also makes it easier for Thomas to have an impact.
Before his career crashed and burned, 2012 first-rounder Justin Blackmon established the Jaguars’ top rookie numbers with 64 catches and 865 yards. The rookie TD record is held by undrafted Allen Hurns with six in 2014.
Thomas had a breakout season (68 catches, 1,177 yards, 17 TDs) last year at LSU because he benefitted from No. 2 NFL draft choice Jayden Daniels throwing him the ball, as well as receiver Malik Nabers, the No. 6 pick, drawing the attention of defenses.
With Lawrence in his third season working in the Jaguars’ offensive system of head coach Doug Pederson and coordinator Press Taylor, and providing he stays healthy, Thomas has the right situation to own every significant franchise rookie receiving record.
That’s a lot to ask of Thomas, but he appears to have the makeup and skill set to pull it off.
No point in delaying Trevor contract
Unlike the Josh Allen contract extension, where both the Jaguars and the team’s best pass-rusher were content to let him play out the final year of his deal before he landed a five-year, $150 million deal, the Trevor Lawrence situation shouldn’t have much drama.
Sure, the Jaguars could wait until next year to finalize an extension that is almost guaranteed to make him the highest-paid player in franchise history, possibly around or above $50 million a year.
Allen’s huge contract was the result of him picking the perfect time to have a career season with 17.5 sacks last year. Until that breakout performance, there was a ton of uncertainty about his true value.
It’s a different circumstance with Lawrence. Whether he has an okay season or a Pro Bowl-type year in 2024, the Jaguars believe he’s their long-term answer at the most important position.
So it behooves GM Trent Baalke to get an extension done sooner than later because the quarterback price tag is only going to go up. Whenever the Kansas City Chiefs decide Patrick Mahomes, who is currently seventh-highest paid at $45 million per year, to move him above the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow ($55 million), that will become the bar.
While Lawrence has yet to live up to his No. 1 overall draft status, the Jaguars know he’s their future at QB. From a financial standpoint, it’s best to finalize a new contract, preferably before training camp.
Kiper, Brugler had solid mocks
In a year where many NFL mock drafts correctly had quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, then receiver Marvin Harrison, going 1-2-3-4, the two highest-profile draft experts in the industry — The Athletic’s Dane Brugler and ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. — fared pretty well in their final first-round forecasts.
Kiper nailed four picks after the top four — No. 6 Malik Nabers to the New York Giants, No. 9 Rome Odunze to the Chicago Bears and his best on-target predictions, No. 27 Darius Robinson to Arizona, and No. 32 Xavier Leggette (to the Carolina Panthers after trading down with Kansas City).
His first-round projection for the Jaguars, taking Iowa cornerback Cooper Dejean at 17, was way off. He went 40th to the Philadelphia Eagles. Four first-round projections for Kiper and Brugler, including DeJean and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, went in the second round.
Brugler hit three selections after the top four, Nabers, Odunze and No. 18 Amarius Mims to the Cincinnati Bengals. He correctly had the Jaguars trading down from No. 17, but all the way to No. 28 instead of dropping to No. 23. Brugler had the Jaguars taking McKinstry, who didn’t get selected until No. 41 (New Orleans Saints).
As for the Jaguars’ first-round pick, Kiper had Thomas going 28th to Buffalo, while Brugler pegged him No. 17 to the Bills in a trade-up with the Jaguars.
Overall, give the crystal balls of Kiper and Brugler a solid B-plus for their first-round projections.
NFL schedule guessing game
One of the more underrated offseason NFL events is the league unveiling its schedule, with fan bases intrigued about when they’ll be playing their known opponents, especially the international games in London, Brazil and Germany.
Besides the Jaguars’ back-to-back London games against the Chicago Bears and an undetermined opponent in October, the interesting reveal on Thursday, May 9, will be how many prime-time games Jacksonville gets this year after having three last year, the most since 2011.
My guess is losing the AFC South title in Week 18 to the Tennessee Titans will cost the Jaguars one prime-time game, meaning they get only two in 2024, which would include one Thursday Night matchup.
If the Jaguars get two prime-time games, Thursday or otherwise, I’ll take a shot and guess they get the Green Bay Packers at home and Houston Texans on the road.
Another intriguing possibility is maybe playing the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. The Jaguars remain the only NFL team that has yet to play on that holiday.
One good thing for the Jaguars about their second straight back-to-back London games, something they mandated to the NFL for a doubleheader return, is they won’t have to switch hotels like last year.
When the Jaguars had to move out of The Grove to Hanbury Manor (their second London opponent, the Buffalo Bills, were moving in), it was quite an inconvenience with all the equipment and infrastructure being transported from one hotel to another. The Jaguars, especially head coach Doug Pederson, will be happy to be staying in one hotel this year.
Icemen attendance keeps spiking
It’s not much consolation after blowing a 3-1 series lead in the Kelly Cup playoffs to the nemesis Florida Everblades, but the Jacksonville Icemen can at least claim to be ECHL champions at the box office.
For the second consecutive year, the Icemen led the league in attendance with an average of 8,768, a number that included six crowds of 10,000-plus fans.
What really stands out is the Icemen trend of having substantial jumps the past two years, going from 6,405 two years ago, to 7,749 last year and another increase of over 1,000 fans this season.
Bob Ohrablo, the Icemen team president, attributes the attendance success to multiple factors, including the renovation of the Igloo practice facility.
“Obviously, the team has been very competitive, so if people see the team win, they come back,” Ohrablo said. “Secondly, we’ve added more people to our sales team. That helps us lead the league in group sales the past couple years.
“Some of it also has to do with the Igloo and having more kids playing hockey. I always wanted to [renovate the Igloo] because it helps ingrain the sport into the community.”
Now if the Icemen could just figure out how to solve the postseason issue of the Everblades, who have eliminated them three years in a row, maybe they could hoist a Kelly Cup along with being top dogs at the gate.
Kentucky Derby crystal ball
My win-place-show forecast: 1. Forever Young 10-1 (Love Rod Stewart version of this song); 2. Resilience (Perfect name to contend in a 21-horse field); 3. Sierra Leone (Never trust a favorite to win this race).
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Brian Thomas Jr. has potential to be instant star for Jaguars | Frenette
