The Funnel Defense Report: Week 14
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 13 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 13.
Run Funnel Defenses
I know, I know, you’re bowled over to see the Colts mentioned in this space. Funnel defense knowers understood there was no avoiding the horseshoes in this space, because, as the knowers know, the Colts are the league’s second most extreme run funnel defense throughout the season and over the past four weeks.
Just last week, we saw the run-first Titans go giga-run heavy — as the zoomers are saying — against these Colts, with a drop back rate over expected of -10 percent. In Week 12, the usually pass-first Bucs were just 1 percent over their expected drop back rate against Indy. Perhaps, just maybe, that’s because the Colts are allowing the second highest rush EPA since Week 8.
What it means for Week 14: The Jake Browning-led Bengals last week against Jacksonville were far more balanced than they were with Joe Burrow at the helm. Cincinnati was 4 percent below their expected drop back rate and particularly run heavy in the red zone.
That approach generated 28 running back carries for Joe Mixon and Chase Brown (who has been limited in practice this week with a hamstring issue). Barring some exceedingly weird game script in Week 14, we’re going to see more of this run-first offense against the run-funnel Colts. Even if Brown chips in with a handful of rushes, Mixon’s lead back role and his spot as the team’s red zone RB means he has sneaky upside against the Colts. There’s also this: Mixon ran a route on 29 of Browning’s 40 drop backs last week against the Jaguars. No other Bengals running back logged a pass route.
One a nothing-funnel, the Saints are now firmly in the run funnel category, with just five teams qualifying as more pronounced run funnels on the season. Over the past month, only three teams are more pronounced run funnels.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense. The Saints have allowed one of the NFL’s lowest rushing success rates since Week 8 and they’ve been quite generous to opposing passers, giving up the ninth highest EPA per drop back. Still, teams are choosing to run it and run it and run it against New Orleans: Since Week 8, teams facing the Saints have passed the ball at a league-low 46 percent when the game was within seven points in either direction.
What it means for Week 14: Chuba Hubbard, having firmly (finally) taken the lead back role from the underachieving Miles Sanders, should be in for another glut of touches this week against the Saints. Hubbard in Week 13 against the pass-funnel Bucs had 25 of 32 running backs carries. He saw all of the green zone work and found the end zone not once, but twice.
I’m operating under the hypothesis that whatever is left of the Panthers coaching staff is bound and determined to establish the run at all costs over the season’s final stretch. Against Tampa, the Panthers were 15 percent under their expected drop back rate. They had a 50 percent pass rate in a trailing script. Carolina is going to ride Hubbard unless and until the wheels fall all the way off. That makes him, at worst, a viable flex play.
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Pass Funnel Defenses
Mainstays in this funnel defense space, the Eagles have been bludgeoned through the air for much of the past two months. Only the Niners are a more extreme pass funnel than the Eagles through Week 13.
The lowly Commanders defense is the only unit to allow a higher drop back EPA than Philly since Week 8. The Birds are bleeding yards and points to any and all passing offenses.
What it means for Week 14: Dak Prescott and the stellar Dallas passing attack is all but locked in for another heady outing. I don’t see any way the Eagles can slow down a Cowboys offense determined to establish the pass and jam the ball to its best players — a novel concept in the NFL.
The Cowboys since Week 8 lead the league in neutral pass rate and are over their expected drop back rate in almost every situation (first and 10, second and long, third and medium, things of that nature). Forgoing the (inefficient) run for the (highly efficient) pass has made Dallas a top-tier team, positioned Dak Prescott as the league’s MVP, made CeeDee Lamb an elite, volume-driven fantasy option, and turned the team’s secondary pass catchers into somewhat reliable fantasy plays.
The Cowboys are going to abandon the run against Philadelphia; there’s almost no universe in which they get conservative and lean on Tony Pollard. Brandin Cooks is firmly in play as an upside WR2/3 and Jake Ferguson is in a potential eruption spot against an Eagles coverage unit that has been wrecked in the middle of the field this year. The Eagles allow the NFL’s second highest target share to pass catchers running routes from the slot. It’s Ferguson and Lamb who lead the Cowboys in slot routes this season. That both of these teams are among the league leaders in offensive snaps per game gives this matchup all the shootout potential.
The Raiders have not made their way into this funnel-centric column this season because for most of 2023 they have been neither a run nor pass funnel. Vegas opponents usually do what they want against the toothless Raiders defense. There were no trends on which to latch for us analysts.
That’s changed since early November. The Raiders are the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel since Week 9; opponents have dropped back on 64 percent of their plays against Vegas in neutral game script over that stretch.
What it means for Week 14: Josh Dobbs, on the shortest of leashes following his Week 12 debacle against the Bears, is in as good a spot as he could ask for this week. Facing a Raiders defense that pressures the passer at one of the NFL’s lowest rates — and allows the NFL’s fifth highest completion rate over expected — and getting Justin Jefferson back from IR should boost Dobbs’ floor and ceiling in Week 14. Minnesota’s horribly inefficient backfield options have little chance of success against a Vegas defense giving up the second lowest rush EPA since Week 9.
A pass-first approach in Week 14 should fuel volume for T.J. Hockenson and to a lesser extent, Jordan Addison, who tied Hockenson in first-read targets during Jefferson’s absence. It’s not exactly a pristine matchup for downfield burner Addison: Only the Bills have seen fewer downfield passes attempted against than than the Raiders in 2023. Vegas keeps (almost) everything in front of them.
The Rams, like the Raiders, have been a nothing-funnel for much of the season. Things have changed, however, over the past month and we now have LA as one of the clearest pass funnels in the NFL.
They’re the third most pronounced pass funnel over the past month, with opponents passing at a hefty 66 percent clip in neutral game script. It’s not that the Rams have been a sieve in the secondary. Rather, they’ve stiffened against the run game.
What it means for Week 14: Lamar Jackson, if he can play through yet another illness, should finally get a pass-first game script against LA. The Ravens have gravitated toward their traditional massively run heavy ways since the start of November: They’re under their expected drop back rate in five of their past seven outings. Baltimore is passing the ball on a meager 52 percent of its plays while leading since Week 6.
Maybe the Rams run defense will force Lamar and the Ravens to air it out a little bit on Sunday. This would put Odell Beckham — and his gaudy 33 percent targets per route run since Week 9 — firmly in play as a WR2/3, along with Zay Flowers. Isaiah Likely would also stand to benefit against an LA defense that has allowed 20 tight end receptions over the past two weeks.
