The Funnel Defense Report: Championship Week
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through the Divisional Round — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Divisional Round DFS contests and other fantasy formats.
Not every game, of course, features a clearcut run or pass funnel defense. I’ve broken down both of this weekend’s games, even if there are no trends in how a defense is being attacked. My hope is to provide a basis from which you can make your all-important lineups decisions in this condensed slate.
And please remember at all times: The process.
49ers vs. Lions
We have a classic pass funnel vs. pass funnel matchup here. Detroit and San Francisco, however, are pass funnels for two very different reasons.
Teams have leaned hard on the pass against the 49ers because Kyle Shanahan’s hyper-efficient offense has poured on the points and forced opponents to abandon the rush in the second half. No team saw a higher pass rate over expected against them than the 49ers during the regular season. San Francisco opponents had a 62 percent neutral pass rate this year, the second highest rate in the league.
This has largely covered for a Niners defense that can be had on the ground; we saw as much in the Divisional Round when Aaron Jones had 108 yards on 18 carries, with an obscene 5.2 yards after contact per rush. The Packers posted a lofty 50 percent rushing success rate against the 49ers.
The Lions, on the other hand, have been mercilessly attacked via the pass because they’re quite bad at defending the pass. This is analytics. Teams passed at a 61 percent rate against Detroit in neutral situations in 2023; only seven teams saw a higher neutral pass rate against them. From Week 13 to Week 18, Detroit faced the NFL’s second highest neutral pass rate (66 percent).
What it means for the NFC Championship Game: There’s no universe in which the Lions — fresh off seeing Green Bay gash the Niners on the ground — don’t try to establish the run like players are wearing leather helmets and working as part-time plumbers.
The Lions, as faithful Funnel Defense Report readers know, have been intent on operating a balanced or run first offense whenever possible. They’ve been below their expected drop back rate in 13 of 19 games this season. Only seven teams had a lower pass rate over expected than Dan Campbell’s crew in 2023.
You can count on the Lions giving heavy workloads to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery against a Niners defense that has allowed the seventh highest rushing success rate and the seventh highest EPA per rush. San Francisco ranks 23rd in stuff rate against the run and have allowed the seventh most yards after contact per rush. The Lions ground game, meanwhile, is running hot headed into the title game. Against the Bucs last week, they had a week-high 62 percent rushing success rate. Since Week 14, the Lions are sixth in EPA per rush.
If Brock Purdy and the Niners shred the Detroit coverage unit and force the Lions to scrap the run-heavy approach, look for Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams to benefit from a bump in Jared Goff drop backs. Williams’ usage has spiked in two postseason outings: He’s run a route on 74 percent of Goff’s drop backs. Reynolds has an 88 percent route rate in the team’s two playoff games.
Niners opponents have attacked the slot over the past couple months. Slot pass catchers have seen a 35.5 percent target share against the 49ers since Week 10, the fourth highest rate in the league. This could be quite the boon for Amon-Ra St. Brown (55 percent slot rate).
As miserable as Purdy was last week against Green Bay, he could take on his former MVP-esque form against the Lions as long as water does not fall from the sky during the game. Purdy has gone hog wild -- the zoomers are saying this on TikTok -- against bottom half secondaries. And I can confirm that the Lions are indeed a bottom half secondary.
Obviously this makes Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel (if he plays) interesting. If Samuel sits, Jujuan Jennings would get something close to a full complement of routes and become a popular DFS option. Jennings last week was targeted on a decent 20 percent of his pass routes against the Packers.
The sieve that is the Detroit secondary could make for a tough Sunday night for Purdy skeptics the world over.
Ravens vs. Chiefs
Both of these teams were slight run funnels during the regular season, never veering into extreme run or pass funnel territory. That might be because both Baltimore and KC are strong against the rush and the pass. So it goes.
The Chiefs during the regular season allowed the league’s second lowest passing success rate. The Ravens were fourth. Both teams were top three in EPA per drop back. They were, in short, stalwarts against the aerial game.
The Chiefs have faced a 56 percent neutral pass rate through the Divisional Round, the ninth lowest in the NFL. The Ravens have seen a 57 percent neutral pass rate this year. When teams have a lead against Kansas City, their pass rate plunges to 49 percent. The Raiders on Christmas Day were 6 percent below their expected drop back rate against the Chiefs, for one glaring example of how a team operates when leading the Chiefs (and how a team can beat the Chiefs).
What it means for the AFC Championship Game: It might’ve been the freezing temperatures and the gusting winter winds, but the Ravens last week against Houston were 8 percent below their expected drop back rate. It was their second run heaviest game plan of the entire season, and I think — if game script remains somewhat normal — we could see a repeat against the Chiefs this Sunday.
KC opponents have made a point of not throwing into the teeth of elite secondaries if at all possible. In a close game or one in which the Ravens have a lead, look for Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill to split quite a few rushing attempts. Though Edwards has a 36-16 lead in rushes over Hill in the past four games, it’s Hill who’s been ultra efficient, averaging 7.1 yards per carry to 4.2 for Edwards. Hill out-carried Edwards in the Divisional Round, 13-10, while running 17 routes to five for Gus Bus (KC allowed the fourth highest running back target share over the season’s second half). Hill profiles as an interesting pivot on a tiny DFS slate.
The Ravens happen to be (very) good at running out of shotgun formations. No one, in fact, has a higher success rate on those kinds of rushes. The Chiefs, for all their varied defensive strengths, have given up the sixth highest success rate on carries out of shotgun. Probably Todd Monken is aware of this.
Things will be tough for Lamar through the air, but he’s up against a Chiefs defense that led the NFL in quarterback rushing attempts against them (91). Mobile QBs facing KC this season include Jalen Hurts (12 rushes), Justin Fields (11 rushes), Josh Allen (10 and 12 rushes, respectively, in two games against the Chiefs), and Easton Stick (13 rushes). Jackson appears locked in for double-digit rushing attempts against KC.
We all know Patrick Mahomes will funnel targets to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, who have a combined 45 percent target share over the Chiefs’ past four meaningful games. Justin Watson, for better or worse (it’s worse, the answer is worse), profiles as the team’s No. 4 pass catching option behind Kelce, Rice, and Isiah Pacheco. Watson is running more routes than Marques Valdes-Scantling, making him the better bet to make a play or two in the AFC title game.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are certain to air it out here if they fall behind the home-field Ravens. Baltimore opponents have a 69 percent pass rate while trailing, among the highest in the NFL.
