NCAA March Madness betting: Bluebloods like Kentucky went from NCAA tournament betting favorites to longshots
If you’ve been paying any attention at all to men’s college basketball in 2020-21 you know this season hasn’t been kind to the sport’s traditional powers.
Teams like Duke, Kentucky, Michigan State and North Carolina have all struggled throughout the season. And their BetMGM betting odds to win the NCAA tournament have shifted over the course of the last three months accordingly.
Kentucky has seen the biggest shift. The Wildcats opened the season at 12-1 to win the 2021 NCAA tournament. Those odds quickly started going up once the season started.
The Wildcats won their season opener and then lost six consecutive games before 2021 even began. That losing streak pushed UK’s odds to 25-1 at the beginning of the season. And there was nothing in the SEC regular season to make bettors think that Kentucky was going to challenge for the NCAA tournament title.
Kentucky finished the SEC season at 8-9 and is 9-15 overall. Because Kentucky has to win the SEC tournament to get into the NCAA tournament, the Wildcats’ odds to win the title now sit at a staggering 80-1.
Those are the same odds as Duke, a team in a very similar position. The Blue Devils (9-9, 11-11) are the No. 10 seed in the ACC tournament this week and need to reel off five wins to win the conference’s automatic berth to the NCAA tournament.
Will that happen? Probably not. Duke’s longest winning streak this season is four games. And the Blue Devils have lost three games in a row on three different occasions.
Michigan State (9-11, 15-11) started the season with worse odds than both Kentucky and Duke at 25-1. But since the Spartans’ struggles haven’t been as bad as either of those two, MSU is now at 66-1 to win the tournament. That’s because Michigan State could still get into the tournament field without winning the Big Ten tournament.
[Bet on the NCAA tournament with Yahoo Sportsbook]
Teams whose odds improved
While those three teams have seen their odds skyrocket, a few others have seen their betting odds plummet thanks to fantastic regular seasons.
Illinois is now one of the favorites for the title — behind Baylor and Gonzaga, of course. The Illini (16-4, 20-6) are now down to 9-1 after starting the season at 80-1. Illinois recently shifted from 12-1 on the heels of a convincing win over Michigan. The Wolverines (14-3, 19-3) are the No. 3 favorite for the tournament title at 4-1.
Baylor (13-1, 21-1), meanwhile, is at 3-1 to win the NCAA tournament while the undefeated and undisputed No. 1 Bulldogs (15-0, 25-0) are the favorite at 11-4 to win the title. Both teams started the season as 8-1 favorites for the tournament.
2018 tournament darling Loyola Chicago (16-2, 24-4) entered the season at 1500-1 to win the NCAA tournament. After winning both the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season and tournament titles, the Ramblers are now 40-1 to win the tournament. That’s pretty good value if you think Loyola can get to the Final Four like it did three years ago.
Another team that’s seen its odds move significantly is Missouri, though the Tigers likely aren’t going to win the tournament. Heck, Missouri has never made a Final Four. Mizzou (8-8, 15-8) started the season at 300-1 and jumped to 30-1 in February before settling at 50-1 ahead of this week’s SEC tournament.
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