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Formula 1 betting, odds: Mercedes eyes upgrades ahead of British Grand Prix

Max Verstappen is -350 to win Sunday's race. Will someone challenge him for the race win?

nick bromberg
College football and motorsports writer
·3 min read
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Mercedes driver George Russell of Britain leads teammate Lewis Hamilton of Britain, left, during the sprint race ahead of Sunday's Formula One Austrian Grand Prix auto race, at the Red Bull Ring racetrack, in Spielberg, Austria, Saturday, July 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)

Can Mercedes’ big Silverstone upgrades create a threat for Red Bull and Max Verstappen?

Verstappen enters Sunday’s British Grand Prix (10 a.m. ET, ESPN2) as an overwhelming favorite at -350. His teammate Sergio Perez is the No. 2 favorite at +700 to win the race.

Verstappen has won five straight races since Perez won in Baku on April 30. And Verstappen has been dominant in all of them as you are likely well aware. While a driver not named Verstappen led laps in the Austrian Grand Prix — that hadn’t happened since the Miami Grand Prix — Verstappen was so far in front at the end of the race that he was able to change to soft tires and run the fastest lap of the race ahead of the checkered flag.

Thanks to nine wins in nine races, Red Bull has a commanding lead in the constructor’s standings. Red Bull has scored 377 points so far while second-place Mercedes has 178 and Aston Martin has 175.

Mercedes has been more competitive than it was a season ago and is hoping that big changes to its car ahead of the British Grand Prix will cut the gap even further to Verstappen and Red Bull. It’s the second big set of upgrades for Mercedes after it rolled out its first changes in May. Lewis Hamilton is +1100 to win on Sunday while his teammate George Russell is +2000.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc is +1400 after he finished second to Verstappen in Austria and was far and away the fastest driver who wasn’t in a Red Bull. Fernando Alonso is +1600 to win the race as he continues to easily outpace his Aston Martin teammate Lance Stroll.

Here are some bets that we like for the race weekend. At this point, you should probably keep wagering on a Verstappen win until proven otherwise.

Haas to finish ahead of AlphaTauri (-120)

  • It’s been a rough season for AlphaTauri as Nyck De Vries is already under pressure. Haas has shown more flashes than AlphaTauri has so far this season, so we’ll bank on Nico Hülkenberg or Kevin Magnussen getting the best result among the teams’ four drivers.

Fernando Alonso to finish ahead of Charles Leclerc (-110)

  • We’re wondering if the Red Bull Ring was simply a track that suited Ferrari very well more than a sign that the pace the team had in Austria is sustainable.

Aston Martin to finish ahead of Ferrari (+100)

  • Since we’re going with Alonso ahead of Leclerc, we’re doubling down here with the team bet, too. And yes, we’re well aware that Carlos Sainz is the defending champion of this race.

Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top three (+115)

  • Hamilton had a great drive a year ago to finish third in this race and is incredibly good at his home track. We don’t think the Mercedes upgrades will be enough for a serious challenge to Verstappen, but second seems eminently achievable.

Lando Norris to finish in the top six (+115)

  • Norris had great pace over the course of the weekend in Austria as things appear to be slowly turning around for McLaren. A top-six finish means two drivers from a group of Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and Fernando Alonso will have a bad day, but it’s a risk worth taking at these odds.