Forecasting the AFC East landscape to the end of November

The Miami Dolphins will play their next football game on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium, ushering in the Tua Tagovailoa era in South Florida on November 1st. The AFC East has logged each of their games for Week 7 — the Buffalo Bills survived an upset effort from the New York Jets and the New England Patriots were shellacked at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers. The latest events of the AFC East leave the division with the following outlook entering Week 8 of the 2020 season:

1st – Buffalo Bills (5-2)
2nd – Miami Dolphins (3-3)
3rd – New England Patriots (2-4)
4th – New York Jets (0-7)

Miami is effectively 2 full games behind the Bills at this point, given that they’ve lost their head to head matchup with Buffalo earlier this year. That will sort itself out, however, as the Dolphins and Bills have a date in Week 17 to try to even up the score. Dolphins head coach Brian Flores often impresses onto his players to take things one day at a time — and we’ll try our best to apply that same approach. But instead of taking things one day at a time, we’ll be forecasting the Dolphins’ outlook one month at a time.

As October comes to a close, the Dolphins are in 2nd place in the AFC East and one game behind the Indianapolis Colts for the 7th seed in the conference. Where will they be at the end of November? We’ll take a look at Weeks 8-12 of the 2020 NFL season and forecast what the AFC East will look like come December 1st.

Week 8 (10/29 – 11/2)

Patriots vs. Bills (W)
Rams vs. Dolphins (W)
Chiefs vs. Jets (L)

The New England Patriots have owned the Buffalo Bills for the last 20 years. Remember: these two teams play twice a year and yet the Bills have managed just 5 wins against the Patriots since the year 2000. Yikes. But the good news is that these are not your standard New England Patriots; look for a Bills win at home to further cast New England down the standings.

Meanwhile, in South Florida, the Dolphins get the chance to unveil their new quarterback with a number of advantages. Miami is playing a west coast team at home in the South Florida humidity at 1PM. And the Rams will be on short rest, too — they play tonight on Monday Night Football to close Week 7. Add all that up, Miami’s strong play of late and the team coming off the bye and almost assuredly adding some new wrinkles? Give us a Dolphins win over the Rams.

The Jets are not going to beat the Chiefs. Period.

Week 9 (11/5 – 11/9)

Patriots (W) vs. Jets (Monday Night Football)
Dolphins (L) vs. Cardinals
Seahawks vs. Bills (L)

The Patriots should be able to secure a bounce back win after a tough stretch of play — that’s the luxury of getting to play the Jets twice in any given year if you’re New England. This needs to be a win, too — the Patriots have the Ravens coming to town in Week 10.

Meanwhile, both Buffalo and Miami have tough draws in Week 9. The Dolphins must go to Arizona, where the Seattle Seahawks just lost at the hands of young QB Kyler Murray. This should be a fun quarterback duel but Murray’s legs could be the big difference. Miami can’t win them all!

Look for the Bills to drop a game to Seattle at home as well. Buffalo has lost some of their early-season luster and Seattle should be re-focused over the next few weeks after a loss in Week 7 to the Cardinals.

Week 10 (11/12 – 11/16)

Bills (L) vs. Cardinals
Chargers vs. Dolphins (W)
Ravens vs. Patriots (L)
BYE – New York Jets

For all the same reasons that Miami dropped their game to the Cardinals, look for those variables to be at play for the Bills in Arizona this week. This Cardinals team has taken advantage of some soft teams but the win over Seattle gives them the benefit of the doubt until they prove otherwise as a young, upstart squad.

In Miami, the Dolphins welcome a rookie quarterback to town to clash with Justin Herbert. Herbert was a punching bag for Dolphins fans in the pre-draft process due to the overwhelming support for Tua Tagovailoa to be the pick — but Herbert is bringing high-end play this season. He’s 7th in the NFL in passer rating (108.1) over his 184 attempts while completing 67% of his passes and accounting for 14 touchdowns in his 5 games played. But he’s also 1-4 as the starter: the Dolphins have a more well-rounded team and are at home. They’ve got the coverage options to contend with Keenan Allen. Dolphins win!

New England’s ‘get right game’ versus the Jets will only take you so far. The Ravens are one of those teams operating on a higher plane of existence: they’re competing for the top seed in the AFC against the likes of Pittsburgh and Kansas City. They’re all “must win” game in that world, and so the Patriots lose.

Week 11 (11/19 – 11/23)

Dolphins (W) vs. Broncos
Patriots (W) vs. Texans
Jets (L) vs. Chargers
BYE – Buffalo Bills

Did the Broncos’ win over New England in Week 6 say more about Denver or New England? We may not know until this game is actually played. But what we do know is that the Broncos are banged up this season (they’ve lost Courtland Sutton, Von Miller and Jurrell Casey, among others) and they’re not very well coached. As things currently stand, Miami is neither of those things.

You’ll be hard pressed to find a more depressing last four weeks across the NFL than New England given the expectations, who hasn’t won a football game since Week 3. But if you were to find one, you could start in Houston: they’ve lost to the Vikings, choked away a win over Tennessee and were blown out by the Packers. The Patriots are in better shape as a squad than Houston.

The Jets aren’t likely going to win any game that has a better coach and quarterback on the other side. So good luck finding a win.

Week 12 (11/26 – 11/30)

Chargers vs. Bills (W)
Dolphins (W) vs. Jets
Cardinals vs. Patriots (W)

Buffalo at home against the Chargers? This is a nice draw for the Bills to close the month out — they’re more talented as a team and at home.

Meanwhile, Miami should have no issues taking another win from the Jets, given that the longer this season goes the harder the negative momentum is going to be to stop. The Dolphins are in the midst of a transformation as a team by this point in time and they’ve already shown all year they don’t play down to worse teams.

The Patriots aren’t going to go too quietly into the night. Look for them, at home, to cook up a few special traps for Kyler Murray for this road trip.

End Of November Projection

T-1st – Buffalo Bills (7-4)
T-1st – Miami Dolphins (7-4)
3rd – New England Patriots (5-6)
4th – New York Jets (0-11)

It’s going to be a bumpy ride! Looking at the next five weeks, Miami has a legit chance to push into contention in the AFC East — moreso than they already have. Buffalo has a tougher schedule in November than Miami, whereas the Patriots are balancing tough games with the Ravens & Bills by playing the Jets & Texans.

What’s better? Miami’s main contender for the 7th-seed as things currently stand, the Indianapolis Colts? They must play Baltimore, Green Bay and Tennessee (twice) in November. Giddy up!