Florida football vs. No. 9 Tennessee, scouting report, prediction

Rivalries add spice to college football. For Florida football fans, celebrating wins against rivals has been hard to come by of late.

The Florida Gators (1-1) went 0-4 against traditional rivals Tennessee, LSU, Georgia and Florida State in head coach Billy Napier's first season in 2022.

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Napier understands the importance of Saturday night's matchup between Florida and No. 9 Tennessee at The Swamp (7 p.m., ESPN). Not just for morale, but for UF to get off on a positive note in conference play in its SEC opener. Florida is looking to avoid its first 1-2 start since 1992 and seeking its first FBS win since knocking off South Carolina 38-6 on Nov. 12, 2022.

"It's time for SEC play," Napier said. "Certainly, this is an Eastern Division opponent, as well. So, there's magnitude of that. I think it's a big weekend for Gator Nation. We play at home. We play a really good opponent."

Here are five storylines to watch for the Gators when they face the Vols on Saturday at The Swamp:

Can Florida football's offensive line answer the bell against Tennessee's physical front seven?

Tennessee enters its matchup against the Gators leading in the SEC in sacks (11) and tackles for loss (25). Defensive linemen James Pearce Jr. and Tyler Baron have each already posted three sacks for the Vols, with linebacker Aaron Beasley adding two sacks.

"They've done a good job," Napier said. "I think, ultimately, big, long twitchy, inside powerful, on the edge, they've created issues. They've got several edge players that I think are significant." Florida's offensive line didn't fare well against its last power five opponent, as the Gators surrendered five sacks in their season opener at Utah.

But Florida was without starting center Kingsley Eguakun and swing tackle Lyndell Hudson Jr., who are both back for this game. Running backs will need to help in pass protection in picking up blitzes and quarterback Graham Mertz can bail himself out by eluding the rush or getting rid of the ball more quickly when he's pressured.

How will UF football handle Tennessee's offensive tempo?

The Vols play fast on offense under Josh Heupel, as Tennessee averaged close to three plays per minute, snapping the ball within 20 seconds of the 40-second play clock. "The play count number can roll up," Napier said. "I think it's right in the high 70s relative to both sides of the ball.

They're going to play in the high 70s. We're going to play in the high 70s ... depth can be a key component." More depth on defense and more familiarity with the system has resulted in Florida playing better defense on third down, as its third down defense under new coordinator Austin Armstrong ranks third in the SEC at 21.7 percent (5-23). Last season, Florida ranked last in the SEC in third down defense (49.7 percent).

"The game's about first down, then you got to get off the field on third down," Napier said. "Ball gets into the red area, you got to force 'em to kick field goals."

Overall, Florida's defense is coming into the game with confidence, leading the SEC in total defense (191 ypg allowed). The Gators are coming off their fewest yards allowed (112) in 86 games in their 49-7 win over McNeese.

“For us it’s more of a statement game, like the last two weeks wasn’t a fluke," Florida linebacker Scooby Williams said. "I feel like we’ve been putting the work in. Armstrong is a great coach and he’s always going to put us in the right place at the right time. We’ve gotta go out there and execute, make the plays that we’re supposed to make, and we’ll be fine.”

Which team will establish the run better, Florida Gators or Vols?

The Vols haven't been as explosive in the pass game as last season (just four pass plays of 20 yards or more so far in 2023) but have made up for it by leading the SEC in rushing at 257.5 yards per game. The return of preseason All-SEC center Cooper Mays will further solidify Tennessee's ability to open holes in the run game. Jaylen Wright (233 yards) and Jabari Small (162 yards) are Tennessee's top two rush threats, and quarterback Joe Milton has shown a nose for the end zone with 3 rushing TDs.

For Florida, establishing the run game is a must to take pressure of starting quarterback Graham Mertz. The Gators ran for 327 yards and 6 TDs against McNeese after being held to just 13 yards rushing in their opener against Utah. Freshman Treyaun Webb has emerged as a capable third running back in the rotation behind Montrell Johnson Jr. (125 yards, 2 TDs) and Trevor Etienne (109 yards, 1 TDs.) Webb rushed for 71 yards and 2 TDs against McNeese while adding 12 yards receiving.

"Treyaun Webb is going to be a really good player," Napier said. "You could see it Saturday. I think he kind of took it, I was impressed. His ground level, the decisiveness, the toughness, he’s not scared."

Napier also praised Webb's ability in pass protection. "One thing I would say I appreciate about Treyaun Webb, he’s a tough dude.," Napier said.

Can Florida football make a big play on defense or special teams?

The Gators have yet to force a turnover in two games, and yet to score a special teams touchdown in 15 games under Napier. One of the two may be required in order for Florida, a 6.5-point underdog, to spring the upset. Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton has yet to throw an interception in two seasons as a starter after throwing four picks as a starter with Michigan in 2020.

UF recorded nine interceptions last season, two of which were returned for touchdowns by players who are starting in the secondary this season (Jalen Kimber, cornerback and Jaydon Hill at the star position). Etienne had kickoff returns of 28 and 19 yards in UF's season opener against Utah and said it will take a more detailed approach to spring a bigger return against the Vols. "Understanding where guys are going and not where they’re at," Etienne said. "We call it shooting ducks, which means give it 100 percent effort and going all out.”

What impact can the Florida football crowd make on Saturday night?

Florida announced a sellout at The Swamp on Thursday, and the Gators have won nine straight at home against the Vols since 2003. Florida will need to do its part by either generating big plays early or keeping the Vols off the scoreboard for extended stretches to keep the crowd energized. How Florida starts the game will be critical. "Being hype, third down, first down opening drive, just been engaged the whole time," Williams said, when asked about crowd impact. "I feel like we feed off that, we feed off the energy of the crowd. So, hope they bring it this week."

Prediction:

Florida 27, Tennessee 21: Florida's defense will rise to the occasion and force Milton into the mistake needed to pull off the upset. Napier will slow the game down in the fourth quarter with the new clock rules to get his first signature SEC win to take some heat off him in year two.

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Scouting report, Florida Gators football vs. Tennessee Vols