Florida football vs. No. 5 Florida State: Scouting report, prediction

Florida football can play the role of spoiler in its annual rivalry game against No. 5 Florida State on Saturday at The Swamp (7 p.m., ESPN).

The Seminoles (11-0) are looking to close out a perfect regular season and need to show the College Football Playoff committee they can win without standout quarterback Jordan Travis, who was lost for the season following a gruesome leg injury last week against North Alabama.

There's motivation for the Florida Gators as well -- to avenge a 45-38 loss to the Seminoles last season and pick up a win in their final shot going for bowl eligibility after four straight losses.

Mining the portal: Florida football's transfer portal motives still evolving for Billy Napier entering Year 3

Max impact: How staying ready helped Florida football QB Max Brown stay calm against No. 11 Missouri

"Inside that locker room, I think there's just a fire burning for us, just because we need to get a win," Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall said. "It's about that time. It's due time to get a win for us and for the university and the program. And I think there's not a better week to do it than this week especially against these guys."

It will be a battle of backup quarterbacks, as redshirt sophomore Max Brown will make his first career start for Florida after starter Graham Mertz suffered a broken collarbone last week against Missouri. Mertz finished his first season as UF's starter with 2,903 yards passing and 20 TD passes to just 3 interceptions.

Florida coach Billy Napier said practice will be important this week to make sure the offense performs as efficiently with Brown under center.

"We control how we prepare," Napier said. "We can't ever lose sight of that. I think it's important that, given the dynamic of this game, certainly the two quarterbacks and the situation there."

Here are five storylines to watch between the Florida and Florida State:

How will UF football quarterback Max Brown react to the big stage in his first career start?

Brown will have a sellout crowd behind him in his first career start at The Swamp. Still, it will be a challenge for Brown facing an FSU defense that ranks first in the ACC in scoring (16.9 ppg against) and third in the ACC against the pass (183.5 yards per game).

Florida State has recorded eight interceptions this season, including one returned for a TD, which means Brown will need to be careful with his throws. He has some confidence after leading UF to 10 straight points in the fourth quarter against Missouri. His 27-yard run set up a go-ahead field goal by Trey Smack, which put UF up 31-30 with 1:36 remaining.

Brown brings some craftiness to the table in the read-option game, and Napier intends to alter the game plan to play to his strengths.

"Ultimately we just have to play a brand of football that relative to Max and his experience, what he knows and what he's got confidence in," Napier said. "I think we've still got to feature the players that we know are important each week. But ultimately every offense I've ever been a part of starts with what the quarterback can do well. So that will be part of the plan."

Can Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. get the ground game going for UF football?

Etienne and Johnson each have 710 yards on the season, with Etienne scoring eight rushing TDs and Johnson four. Florida State has been susceptible to the run this season, ranking only fifth in the ACC in run defense at 139.6 yards per game.

Last week against North Alabama, FSU surrendered 143 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per carry. The threat of Brown as a mobile quarterback could open up holes for Etienne and Johnson in the run game.

Can Florida football's defense make FSU starting QB Tate Rodemaker uncomfortable?

A redshirt junior from Valdosta, Ga., Rodemaker will make just his second career start for Florida State and first since 2020. He passed for 217 yards and 2 TDs last week against North Alabama in relief of Travis.

Rodemaker is more of a traditional drop-back thrower than Travis, who burned the Gators for 83 yards rushing and two rushing TDs last season. Florida's defense, however, has struggled since October, giving up 30 or more points in six of its last seven games. UF also ranks last in the SEC in sacks with 19.

"We have to reiterate on tackling and pursuit to the ball," Florida linebacker Teradja Mitchell said. "That's going to be important, one of the keys to win in this game. We have to pursue to the ball. Have to be a bend-but-don't-break defense. Even when we get a big play we have to get the guy on the ground and live to see the next down."

Can the sellout crowd at The Swamp play a factor in the game?

Florida will honor Tim Tebow during the game for his College Football Hall of Fame induction, with fellow 2008 teammate and current UF graduate assistant Brandon Spikes serving as the Celebrity Mr. Two Bits for the game.

A loud crowd could make it tough for the Seminoles' offense to operate, especially with Rodemaker making just his second career start. The most hostile road environment Florida State has played in this season was at Clemson on Sept. 23, a game in which the Seminoles squeaked out a 31-24 overtime win.

"Our fans can make a significant impact, relative to how they can effect how Florida State operates on offense, especially with an inexperienced quarterback," Napier said.

What would a loss mean to Florida football coach Billy Napier and his staff?

The Gators would miss a bowl for the first time since 2017 and finish with their third straight losing season and second straight losing season under Napier. It would drop Napier's record to 11-14 overall and 1-7 against traditional rivals FSU, Georgia, Tennessee and LSU.

Napier has tried to preach patience and perspective in his plan to return UF to a championship contender, but the fanbase is starting to grow wary of his coachspeak and shaky gameday operation that has resulted several close losses.

Question one is whether Napier will give up play-calling duties and question two is whether first-year defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong will be given another year to fix a UF defense that has sputtered down the stretch.

Prediction

Florida State 28, Florida 24: Brown will give Florida an early spark, but in the end, Florida State's defense will shut down his running ability and come up with just enough plays on offense to escape The Swamp with its 18th straight win.

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Scouting report, prediction for Florida Gators vs. Florida State football