Final Wisconsin football 2023 game-by-game predictions
Less than one week remains before the Buffalo Bulls arrive in Madison as they and the Badgers begin their 2023 seasons.
Wisconsin’s 2023 schedule is a favorable one for Luke Fickell in his first season, with several top games at home and crossover contests against Indiana and Rutgers. Fickell, OC Phil Longo and DC Mike Tressel have new systems and a new culture to install and establish. There isn’t a more favorable slate to do it against.
Related: Predicting every Big Ten team’s 2023 wins and losses, final record and the conference champ
That said, don’t confuse the schedule for a cakewalk. Several top Big Ten West teams figure to be formidable and the Buckeyes are set for a trip to Madison, hopefully at night. It will take a special run, and an immediate one, to rival 2017’s level of dominance.
Now that the season starts this week, here’s our game-by-game predictions for the season:
September 2 vs Buffalo
Wisconsin begins the Luke Fickell era with the MAC’s Buffalo visiting Madison. The Bulls are a fringe top-100 team in Bill Connelly’s SP+ and shouldn’t present much of a challenge on either side of the ball.
The thing that could get the Badgers is the combination of rust and the implementation of new systems on both sides of the ball. A slow start to he season should be somewhat expected, at least on offense. Even if the team starts slow, it shouldn’t have much trouble exiting with a victory.
Prediction: Wisconsin 35, Buffalo 13
Record: 1-0 (0-0 Big Ten)
September 9 at Washington State
Who could’ve predicted when this home-and-home showed up on the schedule that the latter would be a highly-anticipated rematch where Wisconsin is looking to avenge a gut-wrenching loss.
Head coach Jake Dickert has the Cougars trending in the right direction after a 7-6 2022 campaign. He welcomes back quarterback Cam Ward, former Badger Nakia Watson and several of the team’s top defenders. Wisconsin should win this contest if it can stay out of its own way — something that did not happen when Washington State visited Madison last September.
Given all of Wisconsin’s changes and a cross-country trip, this matchup is ripe for an upset as Fickell and his staff get things up and running.
Prediction: Washington State 24, Wisconsin 23
Record: 1-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
September 16 vs Georgia Southern
Not a better pre-Big Ten play, post-loss bounce-back spot for Wisconsin than Georgia Southern visiting town in Week 3. This a game against SP+’s No. 98 team and No. 127 defense, where Phil Longo’s offense can get going before Big Ten play begins the following week.
Prediction: Wisconsin 42, Georgia Southern 7
Record: 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
September 22 at Purdue
Now the real season begins. The Badgers visit the Boilermakers for a Friday night contest where both teams will be in the midst of implementing a new quarterback and new system.
Wisconsin hasn’t lost to Purdue since 2003. I don’t see Ryan Walters making that happen in his first year on the job.
Prediction: Wisconsin 23, Purdue 14
Record: 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten)
Week 5: BYE
October 7 vs Rutgers
This is where the train should really get going for Wisconsin. Rutgers visits Madison having returned much of its production from 2022, but that production being nothing to write home about. Meanwhile, the Badgers are off a bye and should be fresh on both sides of the ball.
I expect the post-bye run to be the time Fickell’s team begins ascending toward the top of the conference. Rutgers shouldn’t present much of a challenge on that path.
Prediction: Wisconsin 34, Rutgers 17
Record: 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten)
October 14 vs Iowa
Iowa’s trip to Madison is my most-anticipated game of the season. The Badgers get to test their new offense and new approach against a classic Big Ten West-style team and defense. While Hawkeyes fans are focused on whether Brian Ferentz’s offense will average more than 25 points per game, the unit should be improved from last year with new quarterback Cade McNamara and a more consistent stable of wide receivers.
This matchup should go one of two ways. Either Wisconsin’s new offense works and has Iowa on skates, or the classic Iowa defense proves to be too much and we realize the Badgers still have ways to go.
Prediction: Wisconsin 25, Iowa 18
Record: 5-1 (3-0 Big Ten)
October 21 at Illinois
While the Washington State game is a payback opportunity for the Badgers, no contest represents a bigger revenge spot than October 21 at Illinois. The Fighting Illini crushed the Badgers last season and ended the Paul Chryst era.
I think Wisconsin is a better team this year. But the week after a tough contest against Iowa, on the road against a good team, the week before Ohio State visits Madison is a dangerous spot. I think Illinois wins this one again as Bret Bielema continues to gain momentum.
Prediction: Illinois 21, Wisconsin 16
Record: 5-2 (3-1 Big Ten)
October 28 vs Ohio State
No game on Wisconsin’s schedule will come with more national attention, fanfare and excitement than Ohio State’s trip to Madison in late October.
While I see Penn State winning the Big Ten East and the conference, the Buckeyes are still the Buckeyes and will visit with both one of the best offenses and defenses in the country. Even if Tanner Mordecai and the Badgers offense puts points on the board, there is nobody in the state of Wisconsin that can stop WR Marvin Harrison Jr. We might be a few years away from the moment Fickell and his program begin pulling off these upsets.
Prediction: Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 20
Record: 5-3 (3-2 Big Ten)
November 4 at Indiana
A tough stretch of contests leads perfectly into a get-right spot at Indiana. The Hoosiers are SP+’s No. 83 team with the No. 100 defense and No. 71 offense. This is where the Badgers get back on track and set sights on the Big Ten West.
Prediction: Wisconsin 38, Indiana 14
Record: 6-3 (4-2 Big Ten)
November 11 vs Northwestern
Northwestern hasn’t won a football game in more than a calendar year. With long-time head coach Pat Fitzgerald gone, 2023 doesn’t figure to go any better for the Wildcats.
As is the case with the contest at Indiana, this is where the Badgers hit the ground running and set themselves up for postseason play.
Prediction: Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 6
Record: 7-3 (5-2 Big Ten)
November 18 vs Nebraska
The Big Ten West is full of new faces, with former Panthers coach Matt Rhule taking over at Nebraska. Unfortunately for Wisconsin fans, he is sure to do better than Scott Frost did in his final years.
But Year 1 has been rough under Rhule at previous stops including Temple and Baylor. This year sets up for the same as he rebuilds the Cornhuskers’ roster and develops his culture. Wisconsin shouldn’t have much trouble with this one.
Prediction: Wisconsin 26, Nebraska 15
Record: 8-3 (6-2 Big Ten)
November 25 at Minnesota
As should be the case, and maybe for the final time, Wisconsin’s season will rest on a final week trip to Minnesota.
The Gophers are finally led by someone other than Tanner Morgan at quarterback, as youngster Athan Kaliakmanis is back for a full season as starter. The Gophers are SP+’s No. 104 team in returning production, though are ranked No. 27 in the preseason rankings with the No. 57 offense and No. 9 defense. While they may not be good enough to win the West, the team is a legitimate test in a late-season, cold-weather atmosphere. But I think Fickell wins his first Axe.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 22
Record: 9-3 (7-2 Big Ten)
Big Ten Championship
Prediction: Penn State 36, Wisconsin 31
