Final thoughts as the Oklahoma Sooners get set to face Iowa State
After a week focused on what went wrong in the Baylor game and the head coach answering questions about another job, the Oklahoma Sooners finally get to play football today. Back home in the comfy confines of Gaylor Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, the Sooners get set to take on an Iowa State Cyclones team that has been a bit peskier in recent years than the one-sided historical results might indicate.
Oklahoma holds a 77-7-2 edge in the all-time series, however, Oklahoma is just 3-2 against Iowa State over the last five matchups, including last year’s Big 12 championship game.
Two wins in the last five games. According to Winsipedia, the Oklahoma Sooners lost just twice between 1961 and 2016. This Iowa State team has a chance to even up the series between the two schools since Lincoln Riley took over in 2017.
The Cyclones are certainly good enough when they’re playing their best football. However, they’ve suffered several letdowns in losses to Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. They’re still a good team with a good head coach.
For the Oklahoma Sooners to stay in the Big 12 title hunt, they need to win this game. As we get set for the 11 a.m. kickoff in Norman, here are this week’s final thoughts.
It's on Superman's Shoulders
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Fair or not, the game of football comes down to quarterback play. For true freshman quarterback Caleb Williams, this game, and every game the rest of the season will come down to how well he performs. ln each instance from the Texas game through Texas Tech, he’s been up to the challenge of providing the offensive spark that carried the Sooners to victory.
Williams had a disappointing game against Baylor, but it was bound to happen at some point. Despite what the national narrative is, the Big 12 has some good football teams and teams that are particularly good on defense.
Look for him and his offensive teammates to be better prepared to play this week against Iowa State. At home, in a must-win situation, the Sooners will come out locked in and with a better game plan to attack the stingy Cyclones defense.
Wide Receivers Bounce Back
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It was a tough week against the Baylor Bears a week ago. Baylor came with a physical game plan in the secondary, looking to disrupt the timing in the passing game and it worked. The Sooners struggled to fight through the contact at the top of their routes and rarely got clean separation. At the catch point, the Bears made life difficult for the Oklahoma Sooners receivers who struggled in 50-50 situations.
The Sooners should expect Iowa State to come out with a similar approach since it worked last week. Oklahoma pass catchers need to be better prepared for the physicality in the passing game and have to fight through the contact.
The Big 12 officiating crew let the receivers and defensive backs battle it out last week. The OU receiving corps can’t expect the officials to bail them out. They have to go make plays.
Defense Continues to Play Well
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Last week, the Oklahoma Sooners defense played pretty well. Well enough to win. Unfortunately, the Sooners couldn’t do enough on offense to take advantage of Oklahoma’s bend-don’t-break style. Because it worked.
Through three quarters, Baylor had scored just 10 points. Though they broke it open in the fourth quarter, that’s likely attributable to an 11-minute advantage in time of possession.
The Cyclones come with a similar style that the Sooners saw last week. They want to run the ball and then hit big plays in the passing game. Breece Hall will be the focus, but Xavier Hutchinson and Charlie Kolar will be threats in the passing game.
If the Sooners can play well in the red zone and get the Cyclones into third downs, they should have a chance to keep the Iowa State offense in check.
With a better offensive showing, look for the Sooners defense to stay fresher throughout this one and continue what was a strong performance against the Bears.
Lincoln Riley with a Vengence
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It’s been a dramatic week for Lincoln Riley and the Oklahoma Sooners. First, they suffered their first loss of the season, and then Riley was inundated with rumors of a potential move to LSU. While he dispelled the notion that he’d leave the Sooners for Baton Rouge, the rumors persisted. However unfounded they might be, they certainly have the chance to provide a distraction.
Riley is 3-1 in his career coming off a loss. With Oklahoma coming back to Norman for this one, it’s a great opportunity to get right. In those four games coming off of a loss, the Sooners have averaged 38.25 points per game.
The loss to Baylor was easily the worst of Lincoln Riley’s career. The good news is, it can’t get any worse. Nothing went right for Riley and the Sooners, but that game isn’t who the Oklahoma Sooners are. Sure, Baylor played a good football game, but the Sooners also missed some chances. Don’t look for that to repeat itself this week as the Sooners get after the Cyclones.
Run the Ball, No Matter What
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The Oklahoma Sooners go imbalanced last week against Baylor. Sure, the game got away from them in the fourth quarter and the Bears did a nice job bottling up Oklahoma’s rushing attack. At the same time, the Sooners didn’t really stick with it consistently.
Iowa State’s run defense is statistically better than Baylor’s. But that shouldn’t matter. Oklahoma needs to run the football.
As great as Caleb Williams has been, Lincoln Riley needs to take a little bit of the pressure off of his true freshman quarterback. Running the football can help.
Running the ball can help the offensive line get into a groove. Every offensive lineman ever says it’s easier to play going forward than it is going backward. Get the run game going with some dive plays that allow the Sooners front to just go forward. While the Guard-Tackle counter has been a staple of Oklahoma’s offense under Lincoln Riley, that still asks a lot of your line. The G-T counter asks your line to block in space, which is a lot trickier than just lining up and attacking the guy in front of you.
Riley can help the Sooners’ offensive line and the running game by getting their momentum going forward.
It may not be an efficient day on the ground for the Sooners but if they can give their running backs 25-30 carries, it’ll help take the load off of the quarterback as well as the defensive side of the football.
Get the quick passing game going
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One way to help Caleb Williams get back into a groove is give him some easy throws to get going. Williams’ average depth of target (aDot) on throws this season is 12.3. Meaning, he’s looking to throw the ball down the field. A lot.
There have been games where that deep passing attack has worked and his wide receivers have made plays in the 50-50 situations. But like last week, there are weeks where it doesn’t work out.
Throwing the ball deep is great. Hitting big plays is great. But sometimes you have to throw underneath and simply take what the defense gives you.
Oklahoma’s done a good job in the bubble screen game this season, but that wasn’t much of the game plan last week. Williams had just two attempts at or behind the line of scrimmage against Baylor and was pretty efficient inside 10 yards when he took those throws. Caleb Williams was 8 of 11 for 92 yards on throws inside 10 yards. On throws beyond 10 yards, Williams was 1 of 7 for 50 yards.
The deep passing game is great when it works, but sometimes the best thing to do is simply take the five or eight yards and live to throw another day. Lincoln Riley has to provide more options in the short to intermediate passing game for Williams to look to. And Williams needs to check the ball down or take off and run when he doesn’t like what he sees downfield as opposed to forcing the ball into tight coverage.
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