Fantasy Risers: AL East
Over the next few weeks, the Rotoworld staff will take a look at some players whose value is on the rise headed into the 2015 season. We'll break them down by division. The National League has already been taken care of with the East, Central and West having been run through in recent weeks. We move to the American League, and we start with the AL East ...
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Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox
The third time was a charm for Betts in 2014. After two brief, unsuccessful stints with the Red Sox, Betts finally found his footing after being recalled on August 18. From that point forward, the 22-year-old hit .304/.391/.466 with four home runs, six stolen bases and 28 runs scored in 39 games.
That was what most expected when he was first promoted, and it's more in line with what we should expect going forward. Those numbers are gaudy, of course, but Betts' good speed and decent pop should translate into a valuable fantasy and real-life player as soon as next season. Assuming he bats leadoff ahead of a lineup that now includes Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, double-digit homers, 20 steals and close to 100 runs scored isn't out of the question.
Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles
There is an MLB learning curve for most players, and that curve has been apparent for Gausman. The young right-hander came up mostly as a reliever in 2013, but Gausman made 20 starts over five months and got better with each passing month. For reference, Gausman's strikeout percentage rose in each of the last four months of the regular season: 15.3 percent in June, 17.2 percent in July, 19.6 percent in August and 22.3 percent in September. It's no surprise, then, that his xFIP, per FanGraphs, dropped in four consecutive months accordingly.
Everything should come together for Gausman in 2015. The fourth overall pick in the 2012 Draft, Gausman will presumably enter spring training with a guaranteed rotation spot and, with a mid-90s fastball and forkball that drops off the table, should continue to improve his strikeout numbers. Add in that Gausman will pitch in front of at least two and possibly three 2014 Gold Glove winners next year and it should be another step forward for the 23-year-old.
Rusney Castillo, OF, Red Sox
As far as risers go, it would be nearly impossible for Castillo's 2015 statistics not to take a huge step forward from this past year's numbers. That's because Castillo didn't even make his debut until September 17. He started just 10 games this past season, homering twice and stealing three bases while hitting .333/.400/.528.
That abbreviated debut hints at what Castillo is capable of. The Red Sox certainly think so, giving him a seven-year, $72.5 million contract in August. The scouting report on Castillo suggests he could hit for both average and power while also utilizing his speed on the basepaths. With such a small sample it's hard to say what, exactly, Castillo's numbers will look like next year. But it's a tantalizing skillset worth betting on.
Dellin Betances, RP, Yankees
That Betances finished third in American League Rookie of the Year voting following a season in which he pitched in a setup role for a team that missed the postseason tells you all you need to know about the 26-year-old. The rookie burst onto the scene in 2014, throwing 90 innings in relief while striking out 39.6 percent of his batters faced. For reference, only Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Brad Boxberger struck out a higher percentage, and none threw more than 65 innings. In short, Betances was magnificent.
And now, with closer David Robertson free to field offers from all teams, Betances could be in line to close games for the Yankees. Of course, Robertson could return to the Bronx and render all this useless, but the Yankees may also be comfortable enough with Betances to let Robertson walk without too much of a fight. His dominance would immediately put him in the upper ranks among closers, and in a column tasked with finding players with potential to hit it big in 2015, that's enough to include him on this list.
Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays
In a different year, Stroman would be more of a household name and possibly a Rookie of the Year award winner following a season in which he went 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA. Instead, a strong rookie class and the Blue Jays' woes served to keep Stroman out of the (inter)national spotlight.
But make no mistake -- Stroman deserves attention. The 2012 first-round pick, who some didn't view as a starter coming out of Duke, throws six pitches and gets positive results with most of them. He doesn't walk hitters, he doesn't give up homers, and he's got a new catcher in Russell Martin who was signed by the Jays for his defense and ability to work with a pitching staff. It didn't happen last year, but Stroman should begin to get his due in 2015.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox
Depending on the month, things were either really good or really bad for Bogaerts in 2014. In three month -- April, May and September -- the 22-year-old looked like the top prospect the Red Sox refused to include in any trade. In the other three, he looked like a guy most teams wouldn't ask for as a throw-in in a trade. So which is the real Bogaerts?
There's reason to believe it's the good one. After all, Bogaerts played the entire 2014 season as a 21-year-old. The Red Sox also hired one of the best hitting coaches, Chili Davis, this winter to help work with their young stars. And even with the three-month slump bogging his numbers down, Bogaerts still managed to hit 12 homers and score 60 runs last season. His arrow is pointing firmly up, so those numbers should only improve in his second full year.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays
A pitcher on a last-place team sporting an 11-13 record and 4.13 ERA doesn't seem like much to get excited about, but the numbers don't tell the whole story on Odorizzi. The 24-year-old struggled mightily through his first six starts, posting a 6.83 ERA while walking 14 batters in 27 2/3 innings. A former supplemental first-round pick of the Brewers who has been dealt for Zack Greinke and James Shields, Odorizzi was increasingly looking like an average major league pitcher at best.
Over his final 25 starts, though, Odorizzi gave owners something more on which to dream. The right-hander posted a 3.59 ERA while striking out over 25 percent of batters faced, and nearly all his peripherals improved after April. Odorizzi will be turn 25 before the start of the regular season, so his age and pedigree suggest there's still some unrealized potential there. Odorizzi may have trouble collecting wins on a middling Rays club, but all his other numbers should look better than they did in 2014.
Honorable Mentions
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees
One of the old men of this group at 31 years old, Gardner gets a nod for showing surprising power this past season. The diminutive outfielder, known more for his speed than his pop, hit 17 home runs in 2014, nearly doubling his career total in a single year. Gardner also stole 21 bases and scored 87 runs, more familiar territory for the left-handed hitter. A comfortable medium between a little less juice and a little more speed -- the 21 steals were his lowest output for a full season in his career -- would make Gardner plenty valuable in 2015.
Drew Smyly, SP, Rays
Odorizzi got the nod for upside, but Smyly could have easily appeared on the above list as well. The lefty, part of the Rays' return for David Price at July's trade deadline, enjoyed his new digs, posting a 1.70 ERA while striking out 25.4 percent of batters over seven starts with the Rays before being shut down for the year. With a rock solid spot in the rotation -- something he never truly enjoyed in Detroit -- and no shutdown in sight, Smyly will be another Rays staff member to target on draft day.
Aaron Sanchez, SP/RP, Blue Jays
Sanchez has been one of the Blue Jays' top prospects for years and he came up through the minors as a starter, but it was as a reliever that Sanchez made an impact in 2014. The right-hander appeared in 24 games out of the bullpen, posting a 1.09 ERA and saving two games down the stretch. What his role will be next season is still up in the air -- with Casey Janssen gone Sanchez could be next in line to close, but the Jays would likely rather keep him as a starter -- but either way, Baseball America's no. 32 prospect heading into this past season has arrived.
Steve Pearce, 1B, Orioles
Pearce isn't just the hardest player to figure out among AL East players -- he's arguably one of the toughest players to figure in baseball heading into 2015. The 31-year-old came out of nowhere to hit 21 homers in 383 plate appearances this past season, putting up rate stats that compared to the game's best. Jose Bautista is a notable player who made adjustments later in his career and enjoyed success, but those stories are few and far between. Is that what Pearce is? He should start the season with a job, so we'll find out quickly.
Dalton Pompey, OF, Blue Jays
Fantasy sports is, often, a game of opportunity. In that way, Pompey's opportunity in the Blue Jays' outfield could make him a viable fantasy performer in 2015, as the Jays are poised to lose Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus to free agency after trading Anthony Gose earlier this offseason. The 21-year-old doesn't have much experience above Class A ball -- all 226 of his plate appearances above High-A came in 2014 -- and his cameo in the majors was pedestrian, but Pompey has the speed and on-base skills that could make him a sneaky valuable player next year. It may not be mixed-league worthy yet, but he should be firmly on AL-only radars if he leaves spring with a starting job.
