Fantasy Football Week 12 Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 12 lineups!

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Start: Rashid Shaheed, Drake London

A.T. Perry could ultimately end up the primary beneficiary to Michael Thomas going on IR, but Shaheed will see an expanded role as well. The Falcons are a pass-funnel defense, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the third-most to the slot over the last month. Shaheed is a sleeper this week, while Chris Olave’s fantasy value takes a hit with Jameis Winston returning to the bench.

London should be fully healthy coming out of the bye, and he’ll benefit from Marshon Lattimore’s absence. London sees his target rate jump to 28.6% and is top 20 in fantasy points per route run against man, a coverage the Saints use at a top-five rate. Desmond Ridder also plays better at home, so London is a strong WR3 start this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Jaylen Warren, Joe Mixon

Warren is due for some regression after being the No. 4 fantasy back over the last two weeks while totaling fewer than 30 touches in a timeshare. But he also leads the league in multiple categories and could benefit from Pittsburgh’s new offensive coordinator. The Bengals rank 30th in run defense DVOA and will be starting Jake Browning at QB, so Warren could easily finish as a top-10 RB for the third straight week.

With Browning starting at quarterback, Tee Higgins still injured and the emerging Joey Porter Jr. shadowing Ja’Marr Chase, Mixon figures to get all the work he can handle Sunday. His situation (and current skills) limit Mixon’s fantasy upside, but the volume should be there against a middling run defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Start: Christian Kirk, C.J. Stroud

Last week was a terrific matchup for Calvin Ridley, but Sunday should favor Kirk more. Houston has a pair of formidable outside corners in Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson, who’ve helped limit perimeter receivers to the 10th-fewest fantasy points this season. However, the Texans have yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to the slot, where Kirk has run 73% of his routes this year. Houston also defends the run well, so Kirk (and Evan Engram) should be busy Sunday.

Stroud has stumbled a bit while committing six turnovers over the last two games, but he’s also gotten 9.1 YPA over that span and is in a prime bounce-back spot Sunday. The Jaguars have allowed just 61.9 rushing yards per game to running backs (the third-fewest) but the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Stroud is getting 9.3 YPA with 13 TD passes over five home games and is a borderline top-five QB this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

Start: Cade Otton, Josh Downs

Otton has six red-zone targets over the last three weeks and gets a Colts defense ceding the third-most targets (8.5) to tight ends this season. In a fast-paced matchup indoors, Otton is a deep sleeper this week — and Rachaad White, who is expected to play despite being a late addition to the injury report this week, should be considered a top-five RB.

Downs is a bit of a risk after running just 12 routes during his last game while playing through a knee injury dating back to OTAs. But he was back practicing this week (and doesn’t appear on the injury report) following the Colts’ bye, and a healthy Downs could be something special. Tampa Bay has become an extreme pass-funnel defense that completely shuts down the run but is dealing with multiple injuries in its secondary and allowing the most fantasy points to the slot (where Downs has run 82% of his routes).

New England Patriots @ New York Giants

Start: Patriots D/ST, Giants D/ST

Tommy DeVito appears like an upgrade over an injured Daniel Jones, but he’s also taken a whopping 20 sacks over the last 10+ quarters (on just 73 pass attempts). The Giants have a bad offensive line and the lowest implied team point total this week. Bill Belichick will have New England’s D/ST scoring fantasy points.

Mac Jones likely remains the starter, but he enters with a short leash and with an injured left tackle. The Giants’ offense masks an otherwise solid defense with a top-10 line, so they should get pressure Sunday. New York is a solid D/ST start in a matchup with this week’s lowest total.

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans

Sit: Chuba Hubbard & Miles Sanders

Start: Derrick Henry

The Titans are struggling but are a perfect 3-0 in Tennessee this season and enter with this week’s biggest DL>OL mismatch. Hubbard and Sanders returned to a 50/50 split last week, and the Titans have the No. 4-ranked run defense in DVOA. Hubbard and Sanders are both bench candidates while sharing the backfield on a Carolina offense averaging the fourth-fewest points per game.

Henry continues to have massive splits during wins and losses this season, scoring 48% more fantasy points during victories. The Titans are 3.5-point favorites this week and have won every true home game this season. The Panthers are allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including the highest rate of touchdowns to the position. The Big Dog is a top-five RB this week.

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

Start: Kyren Williams, Trey McBride

Williams has returned to a full practice this week and could immediately get a full workload Sunday (Darrell Henderson has been demoted back to the practice squad). Williams was the No. 4 fantasy back before the injury and gets an Arizona defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. With Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp both banged up, Williams should be busy and treated as a top-10 RB this week.

McBride’s stats disappointed a bit last week, but his role remained elite. He leads Arizona in targets since Kyler Murray’s return, whereas Marquise Brown’s fantasy production has plummeted. The Rams are tough against the run and outside receivers but have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. McBride is a top-five TE this week, while Greg Dortch is a deep sleeper.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

Sit: Amari Cooper, Russell Wilson

Cooper will be playing on the road and catching passes from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who’s getting 3.7 YPA with a 0:4 TD:INT ratio this season. DTR has also locked onto David Njoku, while shadow corner Patrick Surtain will be locked on Cooper all game Sunday. Cooper belongs on fantasy benches this week.

Wilson has bounced back this season while limiting turnovers and running hot with touchdown passes, but he’s also sporting easily the lowest YPA (7.0) of his career and has yet to run in a score. Mr. Unlimited has become Mr. Checkdown and gets an unfavorable matchup this week against a Browns defense allowing an NFL-low 166.5 passing yards per game and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Sit Wilson in a matchup with a lowly 36-point total.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

Start: Rashee Rice, Jakobi Meyers

Rice didn’t see an expanded role coming out of Kansas City’s bye as hoped, but he remains by far the team’s best option at WR. The rookie sees his target rate jump to 25.0% and has earned the third-most fantasy points per route run versus zone, a coverage the Raiders use at a top-10 rate. Rice is a solid start this week.

Davante Adams has hogged all of Las Vegas’ targets since Aidan O’Connell took over, but Meyers is a sneaky sleeper this week. Adams will be shadowed by shutdown corner L’Jarius Sneed, who ranks top-10 in fantasy points per route run allowed. Meanwhile, Meyers will see a lot of coverage by Jaylen Watson, who’s allowed the third-most fantasy points per route run. The Raiders are big underdogs, so Meyers will be needed.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles

Start: Gabe Davis, D’Andre Swift

Davis takes a bit of a leap of faith coming off two goose eggs and just eight total targets over his last three games. But he had four top-20 WR (and two top-10) finishes over the first eight games and should be involved Sunday. The Bills will be pass-heavy in a fast-paced matchup versus an Eagles team with this week’s highest implied team total. Philadelphia also sports a pass-funnel defense that shuts down the run, but is allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Eagles opponents have the second-highest pass rate over expectation, so Davis is a sleeper this week.

Swift has become Philadelphia’s workhorse and gets a home matchup against a Bills defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs when schedule-adjusted. Buffalo is also yielding the fourth-most targets and the third-most receiving yards to RBs this season. Swift is a top-12 fantasy back this week.

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers

Start: Isaiah Likely, Justin Herbert

Likely had some big outings with Mark Andrews out last year, averaging 68.0 yards with two touchdowns over three games. However, he’s totaled just one target with no catches over two (mostly full) games without Andrews this season in a new offense, so he’s not without risk. Still, he’ll benefit from a full week of practice as Baltimore’s new starting TE, and he could be even more needed with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. both expected to play through injuries. The Chargers are allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends, so Likely is a top-12 option at the position this week.

Keaton Mitchell is also a sneaky start in this matchup after disappointing in prime time last week.

Herbert’s expectations need to be lowered facing a Ravens defense yielding the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, so this depends on your alternatives, but he can still be a top-12 QB in this matchup. A banged-up Austin Ekeler shouldn’t find much success running against Baltimore, and Los Angeles has a healthy implied team point total on par with the Bills this week.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Start: DJ Moore, Jordan Addison

Moore has caught all six of his touchdowns this season and has been the No. 1 fantasy WR over his last three games with Justin Fields. Khalil Herbert should take over as Chicago’s lead back with D’Onta Foreman injured, but Minnesota is one of the toughest defenses against the run. The Vikings have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, so treat Moore as a top-10 WR this week.

Addison has been quiet since Kirk Cousins went down, but the rookie remains Minnesota’s most talented wideout with Justin Jefferson sidelined. Jefferson appears unlikely to play in Monday’s game with the Vikings’ upcoming bye, and Josh Dobbs is a plenty capable passer. The Bears are a pass-funnel defense allowing just 64.1 rushing yards per game to running backs but the seventh-most fantasy points to Addison’s primary side this season. He has a much better matchup than Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler on Monday night.