Fantasy Football RB Report: Should we be worried about Christian McCaffrey?
For the better part of a calendar year, Christian McCaffrey has done a great Superman imitation for the 49ers. He’s scored in 15 straight games, including the playoffs. With 553 rushing yards, 177 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns, fantasy managers who selected McCaffrey in the top three of 2023 drafts were sporting wide smiles and thinking of waltzing to fantasy titles.
Then he tweaked an abdominal muscle, and all those visions got a little cloudy. As of this writing, we’re waiting on the results of his MRI to determine if he’s going to miss any time. Since CMC came out of the 19-17 loss to the Browns, fantasy managers got a preview of what the pecking order is for touches in this backfield if he were to miss time. When McCaffrey sustained the injury, Jordan Mason was on the field for 13 snaps to five for Elijah Mitchell, who before the season appeared to be McCaffrey’s backup. Mason ran four times to once for Mitchell, and it was the undrafted free agent who rumbled in from eight yards out for a touchdown that put the 49ers ahead 17-13 with 11:04 to go.
McCaffrey’s injury is not considered to be serious, but by the time people read this boatloads of FAB dollars were spent on Mason just in case the all-world CMC misses the next game. After all, the 49ers have designs on winning games in January and February. If McCaffrey sitting a game or two in October helps reach those goals, so be it.
Now, let’s not go projecting Mason to get the same workload that McCaffrey has gotten. That won’t happen. But Mason should lead the backfield in total touches. He’s also been healthy, as Mitchell missed two games before returning against the Browns. Since D’Andre Swift plowed through the Vikings for 175 rushing yards in Week 2, Bears running backs combined for 97 rushing yards against them last week. With so many byes, Mason is very playable if CMC were to miss this game.
Now, it’s time to get into some other NFL backfields that could use some help reading the tea leaves on how players will be deployed. As often, it starts with the attrition of the position.
Injuries & comebacks causing confusion
Indianapolis Colts
Patience was preached in this space in Week 5, when it looked likely that Jonathan Taylor was going to return from IR. Taylor rushed the ball six times for 18 yards and Zack Moss thundered his way to 195 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Taylor missing training camp and really not getting hit in any NFL games or practices since December, it was hard to expect him to go back to the 2021 All-Pro version of JT overnight.
The roles were more even this past week, with each getting 13 touches. Taylor finished with 65 yards and Moss with 59 and a score. The snaps and routes run were close as well. This is clearly Taylor gaining more of a foothold in the backfield, and that is going to continue.
What is not working in either of Taylor’s or Moss’ favor is the upcoming schedule. The next two games are at home against Cleveland and New Orleans. The Browns are sixth in fantasy points allowed to the running back, while the Saints are stingier at second.
A breakout game is coming for Taylor as he becomes a larger part of the offense, but that might have to wait until Week 9 at Carolina.
Detroit Lions
When David Montgomery landed awkwardly on the ball after just six carries against the Buccaneers, that was the end of his afternoon. The ribs injury might take him out of this week (and more, possibly), so where do the Lions turn?
It may be back to highly-touted rookie, Jahmyr Gibbs.
A hamstring injury knocked Gibbs out of the Lions last two games, and now it looks like he’s working toward rejoining the active roster this upcoming Sunday. That would be good, because when Craig Reynolds replaced Montgomery, he gained 15 yards on 10 carries and caught two passes for 28 yards.
In Week 3, the last game that Montgomery missed with Gibbs healthy, the rookie saw 18 touches for 82 yards. He was on the field for 38 snaps, which was twice what Reynolds had. Gibbs also doubled the veteran in routes run (16-8). Coming off missing a couple of games, the Detroit coaching staff may look for more of an even distribution of touches. Gibbs can fly, and he could break a big play at any moment. So if he’s healthy — and considering the six teams on a bye — he’s likely in your starting lineup. Reynolds might be an emergency start in deep leagues. The Lions’ opponent is the Ravens who just allowed Derrick Henry to put up 97 rushing yards last week, and Moss rumbled for 145 scrimmage yards against them in Week 3.
Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard sure looked comfortable in the Panthers' bell-cow role against the Dolphins, rushing 19 times for 88 yards and a touchdown. The yards are a season-high for the Panthers. Hubbard even ran 26 routes on 43 dropbacks, which is great considering he had a reputation for not being very good in the passing game before this season.
With Miles Sanders sitting out last week after playing through a groin strain, are we seeing this backfield shift toward Hubbard? The Panthers are on a bye, and this could be the time for Sanders to get completely healthy. Remember, Carolina invested a three-year deal in Sanders, and his old Eagles running backs coach Duce Staley is in the same position with the Panthers.
With an 0-6 start, it’s best for all involved that Sanders get healthy before returning, whether Week 9 or later. That likely means a carry split with Hubbard at the beginning, so this could be a lingering headache for fantasy managers.
Los Angeles Rams
Rams head coach Sean McVay declared that top two backs Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers will miss time with injury. The backfield is getting very thin in Los Angeles. Since it’s a next-man-up league, it appears it may be rookie Zach Evans’ time to shine in the Hollywood spotlight.
Evans, a sixth-round pick this year out of Mississippi, had four rushing attempts for 10 yards against the Cardinals last week. Those were his first NFL carries. He had 936 rushing yards and nine touchdowns with Ole Miss last year.
Are the Rams ready to turn over the backfield to a rookie, or work him in tandem with recently signed veteran practice squad members Darrell Henderson, Myles Gaskins and Royce Freeman? The Steelers are coming to SoFi Stadium this week, and their rush defense has firmed up after allowing 100-yard games the first two games of the season to McCaffrey and Jerome Ford.
Evans is a popular pickup this week — he was rostered in 4% of Yahoo Fantasy leagues before waivers ran Wednesday morning; that stands at 55% as of this writing — though going against the Steelers, who are coming off a bye, could be a lot to ask of a rookie picked on Day 3 of the draft.
May be better to pass on this backfield for now, especially since this could be a game where Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua give the Pittsburgh secondary a workout.
Timeshares Developing?
Buffalo Bills
A fourth-quarter drive Sunday night against the Giants started to tell the story of the Bills’ running back strategy. James Cook exited the game when the Bills were on the Giants’ 32, and Latavius Murray got a carry two plays later from the 25. That was the first of five carries in six plays for Murray, who pounded into the line repeatedly while in the red zone.
Cook had decent rushing numbers, with 14 attempts for 71 yards, but he did not receive a target. That was supposed to be his calling card after he drew 10 targets in the first two games. It’s becoming very clear that Murray is a part of this offense, and will be a factor near the goal line. That can’t feel good for Cook’s fantasy managers, who thought they had a find in the early going.
A trip to New England is next for the Bills, and the Patriots just allowed 93 scrimmage yards to Josh Jacobs. Cook and Murray may just be settling into a touch split that will leave fantasy managers wanting, with Cook handling the workload between the 20s and the 230-pound banger in Murray getting the carries in the red zone. Fantasy managers facing bye-week issues may just have to start them, hold their collective noses and hope for a touchdown.
Houston Texans
Fantasy managers who drafted Dameon Pierce in the fourth round cannot be feeling very good about that pick going into the team’s bye week. Pierce ran 13 times for 34 yards and was not targeted, while veteran Devin Singletary rushed 12 times for 58 yards and caught one of two targets.
Keep in mind that Singletary missed Week 5 when Pierce drew 21 touches for 82 combined yards. Yet the similar workloads give fantasy managers something to chew on during the Texans’ break. Also, the Panthers and their No. 31 defense against RBs loom after the break. Pierce and Singletary may warrant second starts considering the state of the running back position.
Denver Broncos
As if this offense weren’t head-scratching enough, Jaleel McLaughlin joins the party to throw a monkey wrench into the plans of fantasy managers who drafted Javonte Williams with the idea that by the time he hit a year from his ACL surgery — around now — he would be nearing full strength and ready to be deployed as a bell-cow back.
When Williams got hurt in Week 4, McLaughlin compiled 104 total yards and a score in relief, then followed that up with 89 more and another touchdown.
The two backs were fairly split last week, so a date with the Packers approaches that appears inviting. Green Bay is 28th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. If both are getting 10-plus touches, there are crazier things than starting them in a good matchup.
Calling for backup in South Florida
Miami Dolphins
With 31-year-old Raheem Mostert being seventh in the NFL in rushing yards, it tells you everything you need to know about the 2023 NFL season. So many media types (and fantasy analysts) kept calling for the Dolphins to add to the running back room during the offseason and into training camp, but Miami held tight. The Greatest Show on Surf is setting records with castoffs, retreads and rookies.
However, injuries have taken cannon-ball shots at Miami’s depth. When rookie sensation De’Von Achane went on the IR before Week 6, it was easy to point the carries at Mostert, but who would he share with?
As it turns out, former starter Salvon Ahmed got tapped to do mop-up duty against the Panthers and put up 34 yards on nine touches and a score. It’s one thing to do that against Carolina. It’s totally different to do it against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Philadelphia is tied with the Saints in allowing 11.7 fantasy points per game to running backs.
Start Mostert, but leave Ahmed on the bench for a more inviting matchup that calls for garbage time.
