Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy: Give yourself the best chance at a trophy with these tips
If you're reading this article, congratulations. That means you're still competing for a fantasy football championship. These things aren't easy to win, and I hope you're enjoying the journey and not overly consumed by the destination. But we'd also like to see you take your best swing at the piñata. Winning feels better than losing, doesn't it?
(Actually, many coaches and athletes will tell you the sting of losing overwhelms the joy of winning. That's one of the dirty secrets of competition. That's why it's imperative that you savor and celebrate when things do fall your way. Titles are not easy to win, in any competitive endeavor.)
For most, playoffs start next week. But maybe your elimination games have already started; perhaps you need to beat someone this week just to make the tournament. You might be battling for important seeding. And maybe you're one of the lucky ones, sitting on a bye or likely to secure one.
Your exact situation doesn't matter. What does matter is that you're playing important games this month, and we want you to have a December to Remember.
So let's give you a needed primer on Fantasy Football Playoff Strategy. Most things don't change much — it's still about making good decisions, assembling a good roster, starting productive players.
But there are a few subtle differences.
Roster construction shifts slightly in December
In the early part of a football season, I'm trying to build the perfect beast, assemble a potential juggernaut. I'm like a baseball team, trying to play for the big inning. I'm like the football team, looking to assemble a big lead. My exact winning scenario isn't clear yet.
Later in any competition, winning scenarios get narrower and clearer. That's why bunting in the ninth inning might occasionally be correct for a baseball club, but it's seldom right in the first inning. A spineless fourth-and-one punt often looks silly in the first quarter of a football game, but if you're nursing a big lead in the fourth quarter, the calculus changes. Punting might be the right play.
Hoarding running backs is a strategy we embrace most of the season, but it's probably even more important in the second half of the fantasy season. This light did not go on recently; we've been banging the drum for a while.
The idea is not to out-wrestle your opponents for freshly minted running backs of interest; the idea is to already have them rostered, if possible.
Some of this backfield hoarding is blocked during the heavy bye weeks. At times you're adding low-upside receivers or tight ends, just to get through a difficult week and fill out a complete roster. But your roster probably can ignore those types of temporary fill-ins now. Theoretical upside should be the dominant theme for most of your bench, not players who carry a safe but low-return floor.
This is also the time of year when I'm more likely to roster more than one defense, looking ahead to matchups. The D/ST game is usually about two related things: backing a team that's favored, and taking advantage of an opponent that has an unreliable quarterback. There are plenty of inexperienced or overmatched quarterbacks we can pick on in 2023 — so many that the defensive-hoarding strategy might be a little less valuable than in past seasons.
But I still want you to be a step ahead of your opponents, whenever possible.
The NFL schedule gets funky in December, too
For the first three months of the year, most NFL schedule weeks are routine. Oh, a few byes slide in, but that's about it. The cadence is consistent.
But once December comes around, routine takes off to beat the traffic. With college football's regular season now over, and the holidays looming, consider what happens to the next four NFL weeks:
Week 14: The Cardinals and Commanders finish out the bye weeks. Everything else is standard, other than there are two games (not one) on Monday.
Week 15: There are three prime-time island games on Saturday, with the teams handpicked. All six of those Saturday teams are .500 or better, so you'll be using some of your starters (probably) sooner than usual.
Week 16: This is Christmas week, and it's all over the place. One game on Thursday, two games on Saturday, 10 games on Sunday (Christmas Eve) and three games on Monday (Christmas Day).
Week 17, Championship Week: You'll get one game on Thursday (sorry, it's Jets-Browns), a game on Saturday and then everyone else plays on Sunday, New Year's Eve. And with that, the week is over. Nothing changes on New Year's Day.
Week 18: If your league uses this week, it's business as usual. The NFL has everyone play on the same day to close out its season, with all games divisional matchups.
Why does the cadence of the schedule matter? A few reasons.
One, you'll need to be a little more on alert. More teams will be practicing outside of the normal weekly window, which means injury and roster news will occasionally break at unusual times.
Also, it means your matchups will unfold more gradually, more often than not, as opposed to the "everything at once" madness that usually dominates a Sunday. So you'll have more opportunity to make in-game decisions and changes as the shape of your matchup changes. Maybe you'll get out to a big lead and can start to focus on floor for your remaining picks. Maybe you'll fall well behind and have to switch to an upside tilt. Or maybe you'll just leave everything alone; we can't predict the future here.
And as always, make sure you don't commit the rookie mistake of burning a player in a "flex" spot for an early game. Always use those early starters in the static spot (RB, WR, TE), so you leave your flex slots as flexible as possible for later, as needed.
One last schedule note, we've ranked the running backs and receivers by strength of schedule during the fantasy playoffs to give you an idea of the difficulty of their matchups.
Know your opponent
For the first half of the fantasy season, you're playing against everyone. You make your waiver-wire plan and everyone looks like a potential roadblock. The decisions are often complicated.
Come fantasy playoff time, you no longer have to worry about the entire room. Some opponents might be out of FAB resources. Some managers might have checked out months ago (it's not fun to note that, but it happens). And obviously, not everyone will make the playoffs.
What's plainly obvious, however, is that your free-agent strategy and even your starting strategy should take into consideration who you're up against. Back in September, I would never go after a free-agent player I didn't need simply because it blocked someone else from that player. But in December, that might be the prudent thing to do.
If my fantasy matchup is projected to be a close one — and let's be up front here, the projections are just a guide, not something to be married to — then it's likely I'll simply focus on my own crew and try to put the best score together I can. But if I am a significant favorite or underdog, I think it's wise to consider that as I make calls on the seam. If you're the big favorite, you want to lean towards safer picks and discourage variance. If you're the big underdog, you might want to let your hair down a little bit, encourage variance. Perhaps a heavy underdog might look for ways to correlate scoring (maybe breaking a WR-start tie by pairing him with your quarterback), while the big favorite might prefer a more diversified lineup.
These are ways of breaking ties, of course. I'm not trying to talk anyone into sitting a star for a fringe player. Good decisions, mate. That's what we're after here.
And it's now time for you to get after it. And if the ball bounces your way, if the confetti falls on you, savor it. Dance your dance. Plan your parade route. Maybe even thank your commissioner, too. Championship banners hang forever.
