Fantasy Football Playoff Analysis: Another rookie WR is emerging to help our chances
Welcome to Week 16, fantasy managers! If you're reading this, you've hopefully advanced to the next round of the fantasy playoffs. Some of you, however, may have been stricken by multiple injuries and are looking for potential FLEX options to fill the gaps. Therefore, this article will highlight multiple players who could provide some fantasy value based on their volume and usage over the last couple of weeks.
Before we begin, below are two metrics I will be using throughout the article:
Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): A usage metric that calculates the average fantasy value of a player’s total opportunities based on historical play-by-play data.
Fantasy Points Over Expected (or FPOE = Actual Points - Expected Points): An efficiency metric that is often subject to regression. Players who rely on FPOE to produce are much more volatile on a weekly basis.
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, be sure to check out my series primer from Week 1!
Let’s dive in!
Drake London - Atlanta Falcons
If you held on to Drake London despite his struggles earlier this year, you might just have a FLEX option at wide receiver for the rest of the season. In his last two games, London has seen his usage improve drastically; he's averaged an absurd 46 percent target share and 46.6 percent air yards share in that time span. Furthermore, my usage model has him ranked as the WR7 in Expected Fantasy Points since Week 13, ahead of players like Garrett Wilson and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
While those numbers are very impressive, London has severely underperformed, scoring -5.3 points BELOW his expected value (FPOE) on a per-game basis. While that number could regress slightly to the mean, it may not necessarily matter as long as Desmond Ridder continues to pepper London with targets. Assuming his elite usage continues, London should be a serviceable FLEX receiver in the final two games of the fantasy playoffs.
Isaiah Hodgins - New York Giants
Look, I get it. Trusting a Giants wide receiver seems like a terrible idea.
However, New York will face a Vikings defense in Week 16 that has allowed an average of 35.3 half-PPR points per game to the wide receiver position — the second most over the last six weeks. And while I do believe Richie James and Darius Slayton are fine options as well, Isaiah Hodgins has actually led the Giants in Expected Fantasy Points (7.9) per game since Week 13. In addition, when the Giants found themselves in the red zone over the last three weeks, Hodgins was heavily involved as he accounted for 37.5% of their targets inside the 20 — the most by any Giants wide receiver.
In fact, two of those targets were within six yards of the end zone, both of which resulted in touchdowns. So while this offense will undoubtedly run through Saquon Barkley, Hodgins could be an intriguing option this week after producing top-24 numbers in two of his last three games.
Tyler Allgeier - Atlanta Falcons
With the recent news that Caleb Huntley is set to miss the rest of the season, Tyler Allgeier will lead the backfield with Cordarrelle Patterson for the final three games. And based on his usage last week, Allgeier could provide fantasy managers with a couple of FLEX-worthy games as we close out the year. Against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, Allgeier was the:
RB19 in Opportunity Share (27.7 percent)
RB27 in Expected Fantasy Points (9.9)
RB1 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+12.3)
RB7 in Half-PPR Points (22.1)
Naturally, the number that stands out is his points above expected. At a +12.3 FPOE, that number will likely regress closer to zero, leaving him with a baseline of 9.8 Expected Fantasy Points. In other words, Allgeier is unlikely to maintain his 8.2 yards per carry average from Week 15. However, he should still produce RB3 numbers in an offense that averages the highest neutral situation rushing rate at 61%.
Zack Moss - Indianapolis Colts
With Jonathan Taylor’s ankle injury, Zack Moss and Deon Jackson will split opportunities in the Colts’ backfield to close out the year. But despite Jackson’s emergence earlier in the season, it was Moss that led the backfield in usage and opportunities this past week.
First off, Moss led the team in opportunity share with 33.8%, only slightly behind players like Tony Pollard and Aaron Jones. As a result, when we plug his opportunities into my usage model, he actually ranked as the RB5 in Expected Fantasy Points with 17.2. That is significantly higher than Jackson’s usage at only 9.2 xFP. In addition, Moss was also the beneficiary of multiple high-value opportunities inside the red zone, leading the team with eight compared to Jackson’s four opportunities.
And from a receiving standpoint, they each received only one target (likely due to game script) though it was Moss that led the backfield in routes run with 12. In short, both running backs hold some value for fantasy managers, though I would prefer to roster Moss as he received a higher number of opportunities, specifically near the end zone. While neither one will fully replace Taylor’s upside, their matchup against the Chargers this week should still place them in FLEX consideration.
Dawson Knox - Buffalo Bills
If you drafted Dawson Knox this season, you are likely very familiar with his inconsistencies. He's finished as a TE1 in only two of his first 11 games. However, we have seen a significant shift in his usage over the last two weeks. Since Week 14, Knox ranks as the:
TE6 in Target Share (23.1 percent)
TE7 in Air Yards Share (23.5 percent)
TE5 in Expected Fantasy Points (10.5)
TE3 in Half-PPR Points (15.5)
To provide some context, in his first 12 games, Knox was only the TE26 with 5.4 Expected Fantasy Points and a 10.9% target share. Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of his improved usage is the significant increase in his average depth of target (or ADOT), improving from 6.9 (in his first 11 games) to 10.1 over the last two weeks.
In short, Knox is no longer relying on touchdowns to produce; instead, his volume is carrying his production into TE1 territory. Therefore, if this type of usage continues, Knox should remain a TE1 even in a tougher matchup against the Bears this week.
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers
Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson are unavailable, and Jalen Hurts is questionable for Week 16.
Just in time for the second round of the fantasy playoffs.
If you are looking to fill the quarterback slot in your lineup, Brock Purdy could be an option that is still available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. Over the last three weeks, Purdy has been a borderline QB1 with 17.5 fantasy points per game, while averaging the 9th-highest adjusted yards per attempt at 8.2. Like Jimmy Garoppolo, he relies heavily on his receivers to produce after the catch, ranking in the bottom 10 in air yards per attempt over the last three weeks. As a result, Purdy is only the QB23 in Expected Fantasy Points at 13.9.
While that would indicate that his floor is relatively low, the Shanahan offense allows Purdy to be successful despite the lower depth of his opportunities. And with a plethora of weapons in Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, who all excel after the catch, Purdy should remain a high-end QB2 through the fantasy playoffs.
