Fantasy Football Injury Roundup: When will big names return next NFL season?
Navigating injuries in fantasy football takes a healthy amount of study and a smattering of luck sure helps. But the car crashes of behemoths flying into one another on every play in a game by which some accounts estimate 98% of players get injured every season occasionally leave some star players on the sideline for a good chunk of the season. The waiver-wire scrambles and late-night trade offers get sent to try and account for players who go MIA for the remainder of the season. It’s a part of the game, but still a gut punch every time.
Before the season, I wrote about Dr. Edwin Porras’ proclamation that NFL players being injury-prone is a lie, shedding light on how injury history needs to be examined before putting labels on men who play a violent game for a living, especially when it comes to season-ending injuries.
The strange part about those catastrophic injuries is how players who sustain them leave the field and are hardly heard from again until they’re ready to return during OTAs or training camp. Pro athletes across many sports have said they still feel the pull of the team, but feel left out of the wins and losses because they’re on the sidelines. This article will shine a light on some of the big names who left the field in 2023, and what their prognosis is for returning next season.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
It was painful to watch Burrow just warm up in the latter part of the game against the Ravens when Mark Andrews also got hurt (more on him below). He had wrist surgery in late November and having him out was one of the greatest drains at the quarterback position this year. He was the QB5, going in the fourth round in Yahoo drafts.
Optimism abounds, though, for a timely recovery, as Burrow expects to be able to throw by the time OTAs commence in June.
“This is probably something that's not going to go away for the rest of his career, but I don't think it's going to impact him in any significant way,” Porras said. “He could reinjure it, but he should be back and ready by Week 1 of 2024 without any really lingering issues.”
It’s too early to tell, but there may be an injury discount for quarterbacks in 2024, as so many suffered significant injuries. Keep an eye on early ADP, to see if Burrow is going beyond the Round 4-5 range he was going in last year. Burrow should still be one of the top five or six quarterbacks for fantasy when healthy.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Oh, what might have been. In two full games, Richardson scored over 50 fantasy points and accounted for five total touchdowns. With his Howitzer for an arm and bulldozing running style, Richardson looked like the future at the quarterback position, in the mold of Cam Newton and Josh Allen. But he took one too many hits, when a shoulder injury required season-ending surgery after five games.
Richardson is expected to make a full recovery in time for next season, though Porras has noted these surgeries can be tricky in the rehab process. So keep an eye on any reports during OTAs and training camp about his participation or lack thereof. Though it’s easy to get excited when looking at what’s waiting for him when Richardson gets back. Shane Steichen has proven his chops as an expert play-caller, and top wide receivers in Michael Pittman Jr. (assuming he's back as a pending free agent) and Josh Downs will be great targets. Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs, will be 25 next season and is healthy. Richardson, though he’ll have to tamp down his reckless abandon when leaving the pocket, becomes a rushing threat nearing the level of Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
The four snaps that preceded the tear of his Achilles tanked the Jets’ season before the seats were warm on the first Monday night of the season. Rodgers is 40 years old, which can be a cause for worry when talking about tendons and ligaments that are no longer as spry as 10 or 15 years earlier.
After seeing players like Cam Akers and Emmanuel Sanders come back relatively healthy from their Achilles tears, there is hope for Rodgers. He’s more of a pocket passer now, so while he’ll need some escapability, his mobility is not that crucial. And those fantasy managers who drafted Garrett Wilson last season will be following Rodgers' recovery closely. If camp reports are that Rodgers is without limitations, expect the wide receiver’s ADP to be in the second round like last year. Breece Hall, he of 76 receptions and over 1,500 scrimmage yards, should also see a bump.
Note to Jets: Beef up the offensive line to keep Rodgers upright.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins passed for over 300 yards in four games before his Achilles tear in Week 8 in Green Bay. He was having a stellar campaign, seventh at 19.3 fantasy points per game. Before injury Cousins had been durability personified, as he had played all but two games since the start of the 2015 season. Further adding intrigue to his recovery is that he’s going to be a free agent this offseason. Does he return to Minnesota?
He figures to be one of most sought-after players, as Cousins should be fully recovered by the time next training camp rolls around. The first part of his rehab may impact some offseason work with receivers, because he may not be back by OTAs in June, though Porras is confident Cousins will be fine by training camp. If he’s back with the Vikings, that’s a good thing, because he’ll be throwing to familiar faces in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. If it’s a new team, that could lead to some growing pains with a different offense and set of pass-catchers.
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Injured in Week 2, Chubb sustained a multi-ligament left knee injury that required two surgeries, the second on the ACL on Nov. 14. This was one of the more brutal-looking injuries of the season, and it being a running back of this stature just added to how hard it hit fantasy managers. Chubb had surgery on the same knee in his sophomore year of college, though that did not hold him back from excelling a year later and going on to be a second-round pick for the Browns in 2018.
The date of the surgery is paramount, as that is when the clock starts for recovery. Porras points out that teams usually require a minimum of nine months after ACL surgery before returning to the field, though it’s at about a year when the knee is considered completely healed. For Chubb, a multi-ligament tear could lengthen the recovery timeline, as does his age (28).
Chubb has been one of the most durable players at the position with most attrition, missing seven games in his first five seasons. Yet his age, complication of the injury and date when he had the most recent surgery puts him being ready to tote the rock for the Browns next September at risk. If by fantasy draft time Chubb is either on IR or trending in that direction, fantasy managers are left with the conundrum of drafting and holding him for a later push, or passing him by and going another direction. Stay tuned to offseason and camp reports on his progress.
JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
After looking back on the spectacular season that the Ravens had, it’s easy to look at the 22 yards that Dobbins rushed for before tearing his Achilles in the opener and wonder what might have been. The other Ravens running backs rushed for 1,674 yards and 19 touchdowns. Insert the Charlie Brown “sigh” emoji here.
This was Dobbins’ second full season past ACL surgery, and he was going to be Baltimore’s primary back. His getting injured so early is the only silver lining, as he’ll be almost exactly a year removed from his surgery date (Sept. 15, 2023) when the next season starts. Dobbins being 25 also works in his favor. Players like Akers and D’Onta Foreman have returned from that injury to play well, but it’s not a long list of successful recoveries. If Dobbins is re-signed by the Ravens it will be a good indication that his recovery is going well, and he could return to a healthy workload. Still, we’re left with feelings of what might have been in 2023.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Everything was pointing to the moon with Tank Dell before Week 12, when he suffered a broken left fibula when he got rolled up on when blocking on a goal-line play. That’s a shame, because he had become a great complement to Nico Collins as top targets for C.J. Stroud.
His last four weeks he was doing his best work, as he drew 43 targets to post a line of 25-369-5. Averaging 20.5 fantasy points, he was the WR3 in that range. That put him in front of heady company like Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mike Evans.
The timeline for recovery can be anywhere from two-to-three months. The fact that Dell is 82 pounds lighter than Mark Andrews, who suffered the same injury and is back at practice less than two months later, works in his favor. Less weight on such a weight-bearing region should make recovery go more smoothly. That will be a dream for fantasy managers looking to invest in the Houston Texans offense. Dell and Nico Collins should form a wonderful wide receiver pairing for Stroud to target for years to come. If there happens to be an injury discount on Dell be ready to buy, as Collins is already projected to go high.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
That Williams tore his ACL in Week 3 in the midst of a 7-121-1 game against the Vikings left fantasy managers dreaming of more, but it was really just one of many blows the Chargers faced. He had surgery in late October, which would leave him about 10 months post-op when the 2024 season starts.
That should be plenty of time for him to be ready to play at the start of the season, though there are rumblings he could either be cut or have his contract restructured. If he’s back with the Chargers, he’ll be a primary target for Justin Herbert. He will, however, be playing for his third head coach since Herbert’s 2020 rookie season, so there could be some getting used to another offensive system. That he already has rapport with Herbert should help in acclimating to any new scheme, especially rehabbing this knee injury.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Injured on a hip-drop tackle against the Bengals on Nov. 16, Andrews was ruled out for the remainder of the regular season with a fractured fibula. Porras said that this is about a two-month recovery, though it can linger for three-plus months in some cases. He noted players like Odell Beckham Jr., Christian Kirk and Michael Thomas had that longer recovery timeline. Andrews seems to be falling in line with the two-month timeframe after returning to practice Friday.
A 100% healthy Andrews could only make this offense better. Isaiah Likely scored five touchdowns in the last five games of the season in Andrews’ absence. With Lamar Jackson entering the second year in this scheme next season, Zay Flowers more entrenched and a healthy Andrews to start 2024, it's scary to think this offense could take another step forward.
TJ Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
When Hockenson got injured on Christmas Eve it was horrible timing considering the outstanding campaign he was having, pulling in 95 receptions and still finishing fourth among tight ends with 960 receiving yards. The timeline for his recovery has not started, as there are no reports yet of him having surgery. And it is the dreaded multi-ligament injury to the ACL and MCL that will likely require more than the nine-month recovery Porras cited when referencing ACL surgery timelines.
Injury complexity, getting hurt late in the season and his large size (6-foot-5 and 248 pounds) are working against Hockenson in 2024. If he were healthy, Hockenson would have been in the conversation with Sam LaPorta for the TE1 in redraft. Coming off this injury, he’s likely not going to be ready to start the season and could miss a chunk of the opening weeks. Porras said he could be ready to play at the nine-month mark, but that he would not likely be 100%. Offseason reports will be key for Hockenson.
