Fantasy Football: Five Week 7 matchups to exploit
By Jeff Hicks, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season moves along, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool available to gain an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Another point to make: I could offer players such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week, especially when they face awful units according to aFPA. That does everyone a disservice, so I will do my best to avoid players rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues.
Here are the best plays for Week 7.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Four useful-to-elite quarterbacks are on bye in Week 7. It’s an ugly scene for waivers except at quarterback, oddly enough. Jimmy G will welcome the high-powered Chiefs offense to Santa Clara in what could be a sneaky shootout. The 49ers backfield could be in a get-right scenario after an abysmal Week 6, but Garoppolo has the best positional matchup on the team. Kansas City is 29th in aFPA, allowing 200-plus passing yards and multiple passing TDs in every game this season. Even better, the Chiefs only have one interception, an issue Garoppolo can have when asked to pass. The veteran has averaged 35.5 pass attempts the past two weeks and has a top-10 red zone pass completion rate despite not playing Week 1. None of his three interceptions have come inside the 20 as well, so he has taken care of the ball when points are available.
The 49ers have a few injuries on defense that could force their hand on offense, including former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward being day-to-day with a groin injury.
Baltimore Ravens RBs vs. Cleveland Browns
After losing another winnable game, it makes sense for the Ravens to run first and ask questions later in Week 7. The Browns rank 30th in running back aFPA and will more than likely contend with a workload split between Kenyan Drake/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards. It is realistic that Dobbins is out and Edwards is still a week away from playing, which would shine a spotlight on Drake after his best week as a Raven. Baltimore runs 58.2 offensive plays per game, the fifth lowest in the NFL. That is a concern if you do not believe in the playmaking ability of Lamar Jackson after not finishing well in Week 6. The Browns are top five in plays per game but may have to contend with a bruising battle in the trenches in order to run their offense.
If the Ravens only have two healthy backs that can be trusted in Week 7, both would be in play as FLEX considerations. If it looks like three backs will be healthy, expect an update here closer to Sunday.
Allen Lazard at Washington Commanders
Target a potentially washed offense after losing at home? You betcha!
Lazard is the clear receiver target for Aaron Rodgers, especially with Randall Cobb nursing an ankle injury. Lazard is tied for sixth in the NFL with three red zone touchdowns and gets the 32nd-ranked Commanders defense against wideouts. Need more assurance that it’s OK to play a Packers receiver in Week 7? Dante Pettis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Noah Brown and Zay Jones have all topped 60 receiving yards with multiple catches. And that’s just the lower-tier receivers to get theirs. The Commanders are allowing 12.5 catches for 185.33 yards per game to wide receivers.
Gerald Everett vs. Seattle Seahawks
Nothing is more alpha male than your tight end wearing a single-digit jersey number with a shaded visor on his helmet. Everett will get a revenge game against a Seahawks defense that ranks last in aFPA to tight ends. One would think it would be a get-right week for Mike Williams or a "Welcome Back!" for Keenan Allen, but the Seahawks are shutting down opposing wideouts (3rd in aFPA), which is probably best for Justin Herbert and Everett.
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Seattle’s defense has made Albert Okwuegbunam (5/33/0), Andrew Beck (2/52/0), Kyle Pitts (5/87/0) and Adam Trautman (2/32/1) fantasy-relevant this season and just allowed 7/70/0 to dad runner Zach Ertz. This is also the same defense that helped T.J. Hockenson put up historic fantasy points for a tight end in Week 4.
New York Jets defense at Denver Broncos
Awfully good timing for the Jets to be heading to the Mile High City. Russell Wilson is in serious danger of missing Week 7, and the Broncos' offense has already given up the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Jets' defense allows almost eight fewer points per game in 2022 than in 2021 and has allowed 15.7 points per game over their last three contests.
If the Jets slow down whichever backs are playing for Denver, New York's pass defense could have its way all game Sunday.
Honorable Mention
Aaron Rodgers @ Commanders
Matt Ryan @ Titans
Jacoby Brissett @ Ravens
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Lions
Kenneth Walker III @ Chargers
Najee Harris @ Dolphins
Colts receivers @ Titans
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Saints
Rondale Moore vs. Saints
Brandin Cooks @ Raiders
Devin Duvernay vs. Browns
Taysom Hill @ Cardinals
Juwan Johnson @ Cardinals
Hayden Hurst revenge vs. Falcons
David Njoku @ Ravens
This story originally appeared on 4for4.com
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Jeff has played fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the pro, semi-pro, and amateur level for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently living where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff enjoys running (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.
