Fantasy Football Booms and Busts, Week 6: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady showing their age

At the fantasy draft table this summer, I often settled for a boring middle-tier quarterback option. I didn’t need a buzzy young star or an emerging prospect. I’d get my sizzle elsewhere. Now we’re six weeks into the NFL season, and so many older name-brand quarterbacks are taking down our fantasy teams.

Tom Brady briefly retired after the 2021 season, then changed his mind. Aaron Rodgers was in limbo for a few weeks, then decided to return — and was quickly blindsided by the departure of Davante Adams.

There’s no incentive for Brady and Rodgers to tell the public the truth, but you have to wonder if they regret their decision to come back.

Brady and Rodgers took their lumps Sunday, both of them falling in shocking upsets. The Buccaneers lost at Pittsburgh, 20-18, losing to a team that was quarterbacked by rookie Kenny Pickett and later journeyman Mitch Trubisky. Rodgers met defeat at home, a 27-10 thumping to the Jets.

Let’s of course credit the Steelers and Jets for their work Sunday. Although neither team is seen as a legitimate contender, they get paid, too. Mike Tomlin is a heck of a coach. And the Jets have been plucky in recent weeks.

But when you look at the Green Bay and Tampa Bay offenses, you see red ink everywhere. There are cracks in the infrastructure.

Out of sync in Green Bay

Start in Green Bay, where the problems might be more worrisome. Rodgers has yet to throw for more than 255 yards in any game this season, and he’s yet to crack the 20-point mark in any fantasy week. We know he won’t do much as a runner. The Packers haven’t gotten their backfield untracked, on the ground or through the air. Green Bay has plenty of respectable support receivers, but Adams isn’t the type of star any team is prepared to replace.

The Packers were held to 15 first downs and 278 total yards against the Jets. Robert Tonyan had a useful 10-90-0 day on 12 targets — that’s a parade for any 2022 tight end — and Allen Lazard made his nine targets count (4-76-1). Every other Green Bay player you needed today came up snake eyes.

Heck, when the game got out of hand late, the Packers let Jordan Love close up shop. You can’t blame Matt LaFleur. Sometimes you accept a game is over and move along. And perhaps Rodgers is hurting more than he lets on; he dealt with a thumb issue this week, and seemed to be in discomfort at times against the Jets.

Bucs, Brady have lacked fireworks

Brady’s posted a couple of strong fantasy games this year — he combined to score 52 points against Kansas City and Atlanta the two games prior to Sunday — but he’s also had his share of stinkers. He’s thrown exactly one touchdown pass in five of his six starts. He went 25-for-40 against the Steelers, for 243 yards and one score. Given that Pittsburgh has been in a recent tailspin and Brady is working with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette, we had the right to expect more.

Many veteran QBs have disappointed this season

Let’s go back to that middle tier of summer quarterbacks. If you targeted a QB in the No. 8 to No. 15 range, this is what you picked from:

• Brady, looking every bit the 45 years old that he is

• Russell Wilson, struggling in Denver, held back by a bum shoulder and a rookie head coach

• Dak Prescott and Trey Lance, both suffered injuries early in the season

• Rodgers, missing Adams to the moon

• Matthew Stafford, trying to deal with a wonky elbow and a spotty offensive line

• Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins, two mild disappointments

Talk about a dead zone. To be fair, there aren’t a ton of quarterback hits this year, but it was a season where bigger was better. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have been consistent. Jalen Hurts might be the best value of them all, QB6 in summer ADP. Lamar Jackson didn’t do it against the Giants on Sunday, but he’s been a hit. Joe Burrow was back in form at New Orleans. Justin Herbert should be fine.

There haven’t been a ton of late-round ADP winners. Jared Goff gets a check mark, though his last start was a brick at New England. Geno Smith is one of the stories of the year, even with a quiet start Sunday. That’s about it, unless you want to talk yourself into Trevor Lawrence, Marcus Mariota, or Bailey Zappe. And I guess I should mention, Matt Ryan was slinging it against Jacksonville.

The quarterback is the connective tissue of every offense. In most seasons, I feel like we love a third of the quarterbacks and can trust the middle third. Maybe it’s time to recalibrate those percentages. I’ll give any offense a pass if it comes out cold in September — teams don’t get as much out of summer practice and preseason time as they used to — but we’re in the middle of October now.

We need better offenses. And we need the old guys to start slinging it.

Maybe that’s too much to ask for. Week 7 isn’t far away — do you feel good about your quarterback room?

Speed Round

• With most starting running backs, we want them tied to positive game script and potential blowout wins. Devin Singletary is a rare exception; the Bills like to limit Singletary’s work when games get out of hand, but he’s more likely to see heavy touch counts in closer games. In Buffalo’s three lopsided victories, Singletary saw a modest 10, 8, and 7 touches. In Buffalo’s three competitive games, Singletary has logged 18, 15, and 21 touches.

He’s most useful when opponents can fight back.

• Breece Hall and the underrated Jets defense are sinking all the New York receivers. The Jets can compete while hiding Zach Wilson, and there are too many good targets competing for the ball. I still think a primary contender should make a play for Corey Davis. Garrett Wilson is going to be a star someday, but he’s not going to be a target hog with this setup.

• The Rams finally benefited from some good timing — the tomato can Panthers at the perfect moment, then a much-needed bye. Darrell Henderson isn’t a special back, but he’s good enough to be a lead runner on a contender. Matthew Stafford was throwing 50-50 trust passes to Allen Robinson on Sunday, with success. Robinson’s summer ADP is probably a fantasy now, but he can be a contributor.

• Marcus Mariota’s efficiency was a dream, but he’s thrown a scant 137 passes in six games. That’s going to sink Drake London and Kyle Pitts, unless the Falcons defense absolutely collapses. Arthur Smith wants to run to set up the run.

• Just when I thought Jeff Wilson Jr. was closing in on Circle of Trust privileges, he loses a critical fumble and struggled to do much at Atlanta. Every coach hates fumbling, but some take it more seriously than others. Kyle Shanahan isn’t afraid to doghouse a running back, and eventually the Niners will have a crowded backfield.

• Not much needed to say on Ken Walker. He was fed, the offense has buoyancy, he even saw a little passing-game work. Game on. Unless you hit every green light in your backfield drafting, Walker is a no-doubt starter until further notice.

• Alvin Kamara got plenty of work in the passing game, though it wasn't efficient; Sunday, those targets were a favor to the Bengals. And when the Saints punch in a rushing touchdown, he's not the guy you expect to score it. I'd take Kamara's two strong weeks and try to quietly trade him. His suspension risk certainly isn't zero, either.

• The schedule worked out perfectly for Bailey Zappe, but he’s played well enough that the Patriots don’t have to rush Mac Jones back. At minimum Zappe has the look of a high-end backup, and there’s a chance he could be a bona fide starter. I'm certainly not predicting a deep playoff run, but this team reminds me of the 2001 Patriots.

• Jacoby Brissett was exposed by Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense, but at least he steered the targets where we want them to go. Amari Cooper and David Njoku are every-week starts, and Donovan Peoples-Jones has some utility during bye week season.

• I don't know what the Colts will do when all their backs are healthy, but Deon Jackson looks more interesting than Nyheim Hines.

• Eno Benjamin wins the Al Capone’s Vault Award for the most disappointing reveal. A paltry 15-37-0 rushing day at Seattle is a shocking disappointment; his longest run was just six yards. Granted, the Cardinals offense is broken in a dozen ways, other than when Kyler Murray is playing with his hair on fire and making stuff up. But if Benjamin couldn’t smash in this spot, when is he going to?

• Make sure you're doing extensive audits of your league's adds and drops during bye week season. Unavailability and desperation will cause some opponents to cut players they don't want to. Be ready to pounce, when your roster and situation allow you to.