Fantasy Football: Bye weeks have arrived — here's how to take advantage
We’re five weeks into the NFL season. Yeah, it gets late early out here, especially with fantasy teams. And now the bye weeks are here. I realize this causes anxiety with many fantasy managers, but I’d encourage you to flip that idea around. It’s a perfect moment to take stock of where your team stands, and a perfect time to take advantage of the current shape of the fantasy season.
In my book, bye weeks are a fantasy feature, not a bug. Allow me a few minutes to sell you on this idea.
Trades generally are harder to execute early in the year. Most managers leave draft day content, if not brimming with overconfidence. Injuries haven’t kicked in yet. Bad beats haven’t taken root yet. Everyone has a parade in mind when they’re 0-0.
But now your standings have some personality to them, and your roster has some kind of identity, good or bad. We’re more than a third of the way through the fantasy regular season. It’s time to identify strengths and weaknesses and go to work on giving yourself the best chance to get what you need.
Here are the key themes of the moment:
Step 1: Appraise your winning chances and team situation
Look at the standings page, and be honest. Maybe you’re 4-1 somehow but you’ve run lucky; or perhaps you’re 1-4 with some close, soul-crushing defeats. The points scored column is more reflective of your team strength than your record. Be fair with your evaluation.
Now consider the positional shape of your roster. Where are you strong, where are you weak? Where are you injured? What deep positions could you easily trade from? What shallow areas need to be addressed?
Step 2: Take a look at the bye schedule
Bye weeks, as you probably know, are not uniform in size. Sometimes it’s two teams sitting, sometimes four and sometimes six. Here’s how they play out for 2022:
Week 6: Lions, Raiders, Titans, Texans
Week 7: Bills, Vikings, Eagles, Rams
Week 8: Chiefs, Chargers (skinny bye)
Week 9: Browns, Cowboys, Broncos, Giants, Steelers, 49ers (heavy bye)
Week 10: Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Jets
Week 11: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers
Week 12: Everyone plays
Week 13: Cardinals, Panthers (skinny bye)
Week 14: Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, Commanders (heavy bye)
It’s more of a low-level tiebreaker than anything else, but I like to roster players on a skinny bye, all else equal. My rosters are more likely to be close to 100 percent fortified on the weeks they don’t play. Conversely, if you roster a lot of heavy bye players, they are more likely to rest while the remainder of your roster is a chaos of unavailability.
Skinny and heavy byes are not a reason to make proactive moves, but they’re at least worth considering as you do some planning ahead
Step 3: See what potential trade partners match for you
Not all leagues allow trading, and some fantasy managers are nervous to make trades. Paradox of Choice is a real thing. Sometimes it’s emotionally safer to stick with what you have.
But if you’re one of the juggernauts in your league, now is the time to see if you can time the market and get some upgrades from the more-desperate managers. And if you’re the guy stuck with a losing record and injuries or bye problems, you might have to consider shaking things up, depending on where your team appraisal landed.
If life is going great: Look at the teams at the bottom of the standings, and pay specific attention to the teams in bye-week jams. Maybe there’s a manager with a crummy record and he can’t use Amon-Ra St. Brown this week. This is the perfect moment to strike up a conversation. Your opponent could be incentivized to trade, while you can deal from a position of strength.
If you’re up against it: You need to narrow your focus, almost treat every week like a playoff game or DFS contest. This is where I might try to liquidate players who are currently injured or off on a bye. I need help now, and I’ll worry about November much later.
Trading partners don’t merely fit through different records; the simplest way for two teams to easily work a deal is when they need different positional fits. If your receiver room is loaded but your backfield is weak, try to find the team with the opposite problem. Challenge trades (a back for a back, a receiver for a receiver) are more likely to make potential partners nervous. When you’re both moving from a surplus, it’s easier on the emotions.
Wrapping Up: Play the hand you’re dealt
There’s an old saying on the Tournament Scrabble circuit: Eventually, you stop trying to play bingos (the 50-point bonus words) and you instead try to win the game. Bunting is seldom the +EV move in baseball, but it can be right late in a game when you know the next run wins. Most NFL clubs recognize fourth-and-goal from the 1 is a go-for-it moment, but if it’s late in the fourth period and a field goal puts you up nine points or more, kicking might be preferred.
At the draft table, I wanted you to play for the big inning, swing mostly for upside (with the occasional floor pick thrown in). Now it’s time to maneuver with the specific shape of the game situation in mind.
A team with a winning record and enviable depth could try to upgrade two or three good players for one superstar. You have that luxury. The teams who are scuffling with losses and injuries might have to consider shopping their best player for multiple starters.
Strong-record teams also have the luxury to consider slower-developing storylines, a player who might not hold value now but could get it later in the year. You probably lose that luxury if you’re low in the standings. Strong-record teams will also start to consider Insurance Season in the backfield, lining up their bell cows with their clear backups, if applicable. This might be less appealing to you if you’re close to win-every-week mode.
Don’t be afraid of the bye weeks, gamers. They make the game more dynamic and more interesting. The players deserve a week off, anyway. And for the first time in the fresh fantasy season, your league mates might be eager to trade.
Now is a great time to make your move.
