Fantasy Football Booms and Busts: Dolphins do a game's worth of damage in a half
You probably had Miami at Washington circled on your Week 13 calendar. On paper, it looked like a mismatch. On the field, that's how it played out.
It was just a matter of how the points would be distributed, and how the primary players would be used.
Miami entered the week as the No. 3 offense in DVOA. The Commanders defense was ranked 31st by the same metrics. You didn't need deep NFL knowledge to predict how this game would likely go. Miami had a 31-7 lead at halftime, negating any drama, and coasted to a 45-15 win.
The Miami passing pieces essentially competed for about half a game. Tyreek Hill sped to four catches and 152 yards in the first half, with two snappy touchdowns. He was targeted just twice after the break, but now has 1,481 receiving yards through 12 games this season. This puts him on pace to become the NFL's first 2,000-yard receiver. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa had a perfect passer rating and 215 yards at halftime. He only threw nine passes (for 65 yards) after intermission. Jaylen Waddle posted a 4-49-0 line in the opening two periods, then had one catch afterwards. No reason to overextend your irreplaceable players.
Raheem Mostert had an OK fantasy day: 12 touches, a touchdown, 51 total yards. That sort of result generally doesn't win it for you, or lose it for you. But the Dolphins did an interesting thing with their other primary back, De'Von Achane.
Achane, who's missed time with a couple of injuries this year, only had five touches and 10 total yards in the first half. He's one of the few players the Commanders were able to stop over that time. But Miami kept Achane in the plan in the second half, even with the game out of hand. Achane scooped up a four-yard touchdown run early in the third period, then took control of a fourth-quarter drive, when the Dolphins were essentially draining the clock.
If you're an Achane manager, this was your moment. Achane carried the ball six straight times on the final Miami drive, and eight times in all. The final tote was a two-yard scoring plunge on fourth down, just inside the two-minute warning. Tagovailoa had been removed earlier in the quarter; Mike White was handling the snaps. Achane's plunge turned a 38-15 Miami lead into the 45-15 final score.
When the smoke cleared, Tagovailoa, Hill and Achane were all top five for the week at their respective fantasy positions. The when doesn't matter in fantasy football — garbage time points count just as much. Some might even suggest garbage-time scoring is twice as sweet, since it comes outside of the framework of a game's outcome, often as a pleasant surprise.
I'll admit I struggled with my Achane rank (and advice) this week. He obviously didn't play last week, and he was limited to two touches in Week 11 before hurting his knee. Like a lot of the Miami skill players, he's a little undersized — 5-foot-9, 188 pounds. I suspected the Dolphins might ease him back into the mix, something that was true for about a half, I suppose. It wasn't the case in the second half.
Some stuff is hard to know. In Week 13, De'Von Achane was The Closer.
As for the Miami passing game, perhaps it could have put up monstrous numbers had the Washington offense done a better job fighting back. The Commanders were held to 11 first downs and 245 yards of offense. Brian Robinson (7-53-0) had a couple moments in the first half, but eventually left with a hamstring injury. Sam Howell (127 yards, 5.5 YPA, 50.5 rating) did not play well.
With the Commanders unable to sustain offense, the Washington receivers were mostly washouts. We liked Curtis Samuel as a sleeper play and 4-65-0 on five targets is useful, if not exactly needle-moving. Howell continues to lack chemistry with his two top receivers, Terry McLaurin (no catches, three targets) and Jahan Dotson (2-23-0, five targets). It's frustrating to see the Washington offense be so pass-heavy without weekly winners coming from the wideout room.
Say this for Howell's competitiveness, he did scramble for 21 yards and a couple of scores. He leaves it all on the field. The slumping Commanders now take their bye week to regroup, before finishing the year with the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys (sorry Dallas, it's the week after the Fantasy season ends). Let's take advantage of the Commanders where we can.
Speed Round
• Mike Evans, what a player. He's cruising to his seventh Top 10 fantasy receiver season, and he's done it with a variety of quarterbacks. He's good for 1,000-plus yards every year. His touchdown Sunday showed the extra gear he activates when a touchdown is possible, and amazing body control around the pylon. I hope a decade from now, the Hall of Fame voters remember how dominant Evans really was. Evans has also been remarkably durable, missing just eight games in his 10-year career.
And if you think what Evans is doing isn't that big a deal, ask where Chris Godwin has been all year.
• Jordan Love has won me over. He needs to get a little better with the sacks, but he's poised, makes good decisions, has enough athleticism to extend plays and run if needed, and he has the arm talent to be a star. Let's be realistic about some of the earlier struggles, the Packers have the youngest wideout room in the league. All of these guys are growing up together.
• Green Bay's offense was more fun to watch than Kansas City's Sunday night, and when's the last time a comment like that made any sense? The Chiefs don't get enough chunk plays. Andy Reid is still one of the smartest guys around and I still view Patrick Mahomes as the most talented quarterback in the league. But you can't survive if all of your scoring drives need to be 10-plus plays. You need some easy buttons. Right now, this offense doesn't have enough of them. And this is the type of thing that won't be solved until the offseason; you simply don't have any alternatives in December.
• The Broncos and Texans played a physical, competitive game. It felt like a playoff game, and both teams could conceivably make the tournament. But Sean Payton is making the Broncos win despite Russell Wilson, not because of Wilson. The veteran QB averages just 186 yards in the Denver wins, and it's only about 30 yards higher in the losses. Denver is good for about 18-24 points a game. Unless Wilson lucks into a rushing touchdown (he has all of two), there's no upside here. The best thing you can say about Wilson for fantasy is that he has some rapport with Courtland Sutton, and Sutton's been dynamite as a boundary and red-zone receiver.
• The NFC better hope the Niners fall into injuries; this is the best roster in football. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, which player should an opposing defense prioritize? The offensive line is good, Brock Purdy is smart and accurate, Kyle Shanahan obviously knows what he's doing. Sometimes the 49ers feel like they're stepping on each other's toes, as one of their stars will have a quiet game now and again. But in truth, this is a narrow usage tree. They can all score in concert, as they did Sunday at Philadelphia.
• All of those Jalen Hurts rushing touchdowns obscure that he was a more proactive and explosive rusher last year. The knee has likely been a problem most of the year. This does not mean he's not a great player or an MVP candidate, though I would not vote for him. It's not a major knock to say Hurts was more efficient and explosive last year — but he was. Let's not fall into the trap of writing narratives based simply on won-loss records.
• Forget Sam LaPorta being the best dynasty and keeper-league tight end, why could't he be the best fantasy tight end next year, season-long? It's in play. Travis Kelce turns 35. Mark Andrews is coming off a major injury. T.J. Hockenson will always have to cede a lot of the target share to Justin Jefferson, and Kittle never cares when the Niners give him a block-first afternoon. For selfish reasons, I hope we get at least one more Detroit season from OC wizard Ben Johnson.
• The Rams ran the fan service offense at the end of the Browns game, making sure Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp got their courtesy touchdowns. To be fair, Williams looked dynamic during the game, Kupp did not (he's likely not close to 100 percent). The best Rams receiver for the rest of the year has to be Puka Nacua, who's excellent at winning on contested catches and option routes, and more of a breakaway threat than you first realize. He can be a true No. 1.
• I thought maybe the Texans were going with the hot hand in the backfield, but did Dameon Pierce ever get hot? Pierce had 15 rushes for 41 yards, and one of them covered 22 yards. Do the math: that's 14 carries for 19 yards otherwise. Just our luck, another nebulous backfield for the holidays.
• Nico Collins saw some of Patrick Surtain II on Sunday, but defenses rarely dedicate any one cover ace to a receiver these days. And given how good C.J. Stroud is, not to mention OC Bobby Slowik (another rising star), Collins deserved the benefit of the doubt. The league has steered into offense as much as it can. The guys with the ball drive and determine the outcomes, not the defensive players (with rare exceptions).
• I had very low expectations for Joe Flacco off the couch, and to be fair, he exceeded them. For about three quarters, he was decent. The Cinderella story hit midnight in the final period, and things got a little ugly. But at least Flacco has the arm and the nerve to challenge any area of the field, something the other backup quarterbacks in Cleveland could not or would not do.
