Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: How to deal with every manager in your league
With nearly a month of the 2023 regular season in the history books, the Yahoo Trade Market is flying at a furious pace. For managers who are new to this game or website, the Trade Market feature is an invaluable source of information on player values. By clicking here and inputting the name of any player who is of interest, a manager can see all the recent trades the players have been part of in Yahoo leagues.
Although I usually focus this space on specific players for trade offers, this week I want to look at the types of early-season traders. In many leagues, those who gain an understanding of their leaguemates will have the upper hand in trade talks. As a case in point, during my many years in the expert league Tout Wars, I made so many trades that I earned the nickname “Trader Fred!”
When looking to make deals early in the season, I tried to learn the leanings of specific managers and use that knowledge to make trades that worked in my favor. Here are the common categories of April traders:
The “recency bias” manager
This manager tends to jump all over early-season stats and assume that those who are having April success are at the outset of a breakout season. This is the manager who will overpay for Patrick Wisdom (9 homers), Adolis Garcia (28 RBIs), Nico Hoerner (9 steals) or Sonny Gray (0.62 ERA). Conversely, this is the manager who will believe that the sky is falling when one of their players has a dismal stretch of games.
To find this type of manager in your league, simply offer 1-for-1 trades that involve you dealing away someone who is overachieving for a player with weaker 2023 stats but a longer track record of success. Based on the responses you receive, you’ll quickly know which managers buy into hot starts.
The “stuck in draft season” manager
The opposite of the “recency bias” manager is the manager who has not changed their opinion of players since March. There are plenty of managers out there who recognize the small samples that are involved with April stats and choose to mostly ignore them. Their approach is not necessarily wrong, but it can create buying opportunities for their leaguemates when taken too far.
For example, despite his strong start last time out, Alek Manoah isn’t the same pitcher right now as he was last season. Both his home run and walk rates are way up, and he will not meet draft-day expectations unless he makes significant improvements. The “stuck in draft season” manager is the perfect target for someone who is trying to unload a player such as Manoah without taking a huge loss on them.
The “balancing act” manager
One of the biggest myths in fantasy baseball is that a balanced roster is needed to have a championship season. Although being strong in every category is certainly preferred, many teams win their leagues with massive deficiencies in one area. The “balancing act” manager might be my favorite one to trade with because I can easily create an offer in which they lose on overall value but make their roster more balanced.
To make this type of trade, look at your standings and find the team that is lower in one category than the others. Then, offer those managers trades that help them shore up their weaknesses but give you the better player. In reality, you don’t need a balanced roster at any point in the season, especially in April. You’re fine to roll along without a closer right now or with too few steals or homers. Beyond the option of trading, you have several months to address your weaknesses via the waiver wire.
The “hyped youngsters” manager
Did you manage to grab a Rookie of the Year candidate who is having a strong start to the season? Awesome. Now trade him away!
In every league, there are managers who can’t resist the optimism that surrounds a player who might be the next big thing. This manager is just a few degrees away from the “recency bias” manager, as they overvalue current statistics while emphasizing youth more. Although there are players such as Julio Rodriguez, who have dazzling debut seasons, most youngsters have an uneven path toward eventual glory. Those who have the likes of Corbin Carroll or James Outman might find that their greatest use of those players is to move them to someone else’s roster.
The “blockbuster” manager
There are managers in every league who can’t resist the excitement of making a splashy trade. They love to have everyone’s eyes on them, either through a trade with a massive number of players or via a deal with headliner names that grab attention. There is a great opportunity to win a trade with this type of manager, as you can send a large trade offer (something with six total players or more) in which they get lost in the total number of player values and wind up losing some overall value for their roster.
Alternatively, this is a great manager to propose the type of trade in which you give up a superstar and a low-level player for two excellent players who are just below superstar level.
