Expert Predictions: Will Florida prevail over Missouri in its homecoming game?
Florida football gets set to play its 2022 homecoming game against the Missouri Tigers this Saturday inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and the excitement is steadily rising as the week wears on. The Gators are hoping to build some momentum after a blowout win over an FCS opponent while Mizzou has had a pair of straight heart breakers in SEC play.
Both teams are 0-2 so far in their conference schedules but how they arrived at that mark was quite different. The Orange and Blue was shocked at home by the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 2 before being bested on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 4. Missouri dropped a road match against the Auburn Tigers that same week while losing a late lead against the Georgia Bulldogs at home last weekend.
The two schools have evenly split the series since Missouri joined the SEC over a decade ago at an even 5-5 record — the Tigers holding the overall tie-breaker with a 20-18 win way back in the 1966 Sugar Bowl. It is not a storied rivalry but there has been plenty of back-and-forth, especially in recent years.
The Gators Wire crew converged to give their predictions for Florida’s upcoming homecoming game against Mizzou — the third time they have served as UF’s opponent on the university’s special alumni day. Take a look below at what we think will happen this Saturday in the Swamp.
Adam Dubbin - Managing Editor
The Gators got a chance to recalibrate last weekend against an FCS foe, and while there are still some blemishes in their game, it looks like things are starting to click on offense. [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] looked more like the player we have expected to see while the ground game also provided plenty of yardage.
Defense is still another story, but hopefully, the squad took away some lessons from the Week 5 victory as well as its success against the Vols the week prior. The first two offensive series for EWU were extremely discouraging from a Florida standpoint but the corps was able to make adjustments. Still, allowing 411 yards to an FCS team is nothing to get excited about.
Mizzou put the fear of God into UGA last Saturday and fought Auburn into overtime the week prior. The visitors are unlikely to roll over for Florida as well — homecoming or not. It will be close but Napier and Co. will prevail.
Florida 28, Missouri 24
David Rosenberg - Assistant Editor
After starting the season 0-2 against the SEC, Florida needs to win in convincing fashion this weekend against Missouri. It won’t be easy, though, and most will remember that last year’s game against Mizzou — a 24-23 overtime loss for Florida — was [autotag]Dan Mullen[/autotag]’s last with the program. An 0-3 start against the conference with Georgia coming up in a few weeks is something Billy Napier can’t afford, so that makes this a must-win. UF can get the job done, but the defense needs to step up and the offense can’t afford to take a step back.
Anthony Richardson has looked great over the past two weeks, and he should be the one to make the difference in this one. Missouri’s front seven is legit thanks to several offseason additions, including our old friend Ty’Ron Hopper. Assuming the Tigers focus their efforts on stopping Florida’s rotation of running backs, Richardson is going to have to get it done with his arm. Mizzou gave up 336 passing yards to Louisiana Tech in Week 1, so there’s plenty of hope for another big day from the redshirt sophomore.
If the defense can limit Missouri from scoring at will, Florida should be able to come out of this one victoriously by more than a touchdown.
Florida 28, Missouri 20
Pat Dooley - Staff Writer
Missouri has given Florida fits since joining the SEC and we saw how they derailed Georgia’s offense for three quarters last week. The Tigers have a salty defense, but I don’t think they have enough offense to beat Florida.
Now, that is assuming the gators continue the upward path that they have taken in the last two games and that Anthony Richardson continues to get better in his decision-making.
Bottom line: Florida is facing what may be the best defense it has played against this season and is going against a mediocre offense. It’s time for the defense to take a stand.
Florida 31, Missouri 23
Sergio De La Espriella - Staff Writer
After an impressive offensive performance against Tennessee and a “business as it should be” win against Eastern Washington, the Gators look like they’ve got things back on track. Missouri looks like the toughest out in the SEC. They would have beaten Auburn two weeks ago if not for a fumble that went out of the end zone in overtime and they played Georgia just as good as anyone over the past two seasons.
In order for Florida to take some momentum into the toughest part of their schedule, they’re going to need to win the line the scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Missouri defensive front can give the Florida O-line some trouble. After two straight weeks of positive offensive performances, it’ll be important for the Gators to give Anthony Richardson time to go through his progressions and find his receivers. The passing game will benefit from a strong showing from the Gators’ three-headed rushing attack. It all comes down to how much the O-line can contain a strong Missouri defensive front.
For the Gators to get a win against Missouri, they’ll need to take advantage of a lackluster Tigers offense and establish their run game to open up the passing game. I’m expecting a low-scoring game, with the Tigers’ offense not good enough to put up many points, and the Tigers’ defense being able to keep the Gators out of the end zone on most drives. Eventually, Florida breaks through and does enough to walk away the victor, with a sold-out, primetime matchup against LSU looming. Don’t get caught looking ahead, Gators.
Florida 17, Missouri 10
Tyler Nettuno - Gators Wire alumnus
The Gators are licking their wounds after dropping back-to-back SEC games, but they took care of business against Eastern Washington on Sunday and have another very winnable matchup against a Missouri team that could be the worst in the SEC.
This Tigers team should be just what Florida’s defense needs to get things sorted. Its offense ranks 90th in the FBS, and it’s short on playmakers with inconsistent play from quarterback Brady Cook. Defensively, however, this group ranks in the top 40 and plays tough.
Mizzou has been a bit unlucky during its 2-3 start, as it probably should have beaten Auburn and certainly had a chance against No. 1 Georgia on Saturday. Given those performances, this noon game doesn’t feel like it’s heading for a blowout. I do expect this team to take another step in the right direction and get the job done.
Florida 28, Missouri 23
Editor’s note: Tyler is the managing editor of LSU Tigers Wire and a college football staff writer for FTW!
Composite Prediction
The Gators Wire expert consensus was pretty close on this one, with three of the five respondents picking the Gators to score exactly 28 points while the visitors’ tally varied a bit but was mostly in the low 20s except for one. There are enough reasons to be confident in this team to predict a victory but plenty of blemishes mitigate that conviction. Expect this to be another close, one-score game that adds a few grey hairs to Florida’s fanbase.
Florida 26, Missouri 20
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