Expert Prediction: Gators Wire’s staff nearly knotted up on Vols game outcome
The biggest game on the SEC’s conference-opening football schedule this Saturday is unquestionably the matchup between Florida and Tennessee, which takes place inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium this year.
Last season, the Volunteers tripped up a Gators squad that was still finding its identity early in Billy Napier’s debut campaign at the helm. The win in Knoxville snapped a five-game winning streak for the Orange and Blue in the series and was just the second in 18 tries.
While the rivalry has certainly languished as both programs have struggled to return to the top, it is still one that Gators and Vols fans alike look forward to every fall.
Ahead of the SEC opener, the Gators Wire crew assembled to provide their expert opinions on what to expect this coming weekend. The composite score prediction was one of the closest we have ever had, which suggests that Florida might have a better chance at the win than may expect.
Adam Dubbin - Managing Editor
It still is difficult to tell exactly what to make of this season’s Florida football squad but one has to be mostly encouraged by the Gators’ performance against McNeese last weekend. The season-opener was embarrassing, but the key to a winning season is making the appropriate adjustments along the way.
I think Florida has and will continue to make adjustments, but it will not be good enough to outlast the Vols this weekend.
Tennessee 35, Florida 28
David Rosenberg - Assistant Editor
This is a tough prediction to make. Florida shouldn’t win based on rankings, but we all know it’s what happens on the field that matters most. Still, the Utah game didn’t go so well, and Tennessee is a borderline top-10 program. The Gators aren’t close to being ranked, but there’s some confidence coming off a convincing win over McNeese State.
The running game won’t put up 300 yards against UT and the defense isn’t likely to stymie the Vols’ offense until the final minutes of the fourth quarter. If Florida is going to make this competitive — and that’s a big if — Graham Mertz needs to put together a career performance. That means around 300 yards and at least three total touchdowns from him.
Mertz has impressed me so far, and I think this could be his chance to break into the national conversation. Last year, I picked Florida in some games I knew deep down they were likely to lose. You’d think I know better by now…
Florida 31, Tennessee 24
Jesse Richardson - Staff Writer
While looking into the crystal ball with orange and blue colored glasses, it’s still hard to forecast a Florida victory on Saturday night. If the Gators hit their stride immediately with the run game and the offensive line gives quarterback Graham Mertz space to breathe in the pocket, then maybe the Gators will have a fighting chance against a stout Volunteer defense.
Austin Peay gave enough fight to “expose” Tennesssee and make Florida fans feel better about the 2023 edition of the rivalry game, but the Volunteers’ week two performance feels like a fluke and they still mustered out a 30-13 win. If Austin Peay hadn’t made crucial mistakes like muffing a punt deep in their territory, the final score might’ve been closer.
Both teams gained confidence after downing an inferior opponent, but Florida showed the most improvement. The atmosphere in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium will be electric, especially if the Gators can hype up the crowd by making big plays early. Ultimately, it will come down to the quarterback battle between Mertz and Tennessee’s Joe Milton. Whoever outguns the other will take their team to the top.
All that being said, I’m predicting a loss. Although it will be a very close, nail-biting loss where Tennessee gets the upper hand in the fourth quarter.
Tennessee 31, Florida 27
Pat Dooley - Staff Writer
I think Florida covers but the Vols have too many skill guys. Gator defense facing a real litmus test and it would be nice to see Florida do something special on special teams.
Tennessee 31, Florida 30
Sergio De La Espriella - Gators Wire alumnus
The Gators’ victory over McNeese State could not have gone better. The offense looked crisp, self-inflicted mistakes took a massive dive, and the defense showed the aggression you would expect going up against inferior competition. Now, the hard part begins.
I’ve long been a believer that Josh Heupel-led teams tend to peak in Heupel’s first year in charge, given the shock value of the offense he runs. The SEC has film on this version of Tennessee now. I don’t expect the game to be as one-sided as most of last year’s edition was. While the scoreline was close in the end, the Gators were never really in the game last year, not until a late surge put some fear in the Vols faithful. By then, it was too little too late.
This year, Florida has a much better defensive unit. While I like what I’ve seen given a small sample size, I still have concerns with a young secondary who will be facing their first SEC test of the year. Against a team that loves to throw the deep ball, no less. Offensively, Florida needs to make sure they control the clock by establishing the run game. The less the defense is on the field, the better chance they have to prevent the “boom” part of the “boom or bust” offensive style Tennessee employs.
It’s going to be a clash of styles, the renewal of a historic SEC rivalry, and a litmus test of how much patience the Florida fans (and more importantly, the Florida boosters and administration) have for Billy Napier. A win here would go a long way not just for the health of the program, but for the temperature of Napier’s seat. With all that being said…
Florida 28, Tennessee 25
Composite Prediction
The five respondents were nearly dead even in the composite score prediction, with the Vols earning the edge by just 0.4 points — or a difference of just two points between the two teams. If the projection comes to fruition, it could be the making of an instant classic in Gainesville this Saturday.
Tennessee 29 (29.2), Florida 29 (28.8)
Vols Wire's Expert Predictions
Dan Harralson: Tennessee 37, Florida 24
Ken Lay: Florida 37, Tennessee 31
Zach McKinnell: Tennessee 31, Florida 17
Composite: Tennessee 33, Florida 26
Read more
Dooley’s Dozen: 12 things to know ahead of Florida-Tennessee rivalry game
Behind Enemy Lines: Talking with Vols Wire ahead of Florida-Tennessee game
Billy Napier isn’t sleeping on the importance of Volunteers rivalry
Graham Mertz knows how important the Florida-Tennessee game is
Florida’s starting center set to return for Tennessee game
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