Examining every Big 12 team’s record in one score games last season
Luck is an important factor in college football.
It’s what separates the Big 12 champion from the middle in recent seasons. The team who wins the conference usually wins multiple one score games. To make that happen, the ball has to bounce that team’s way more than once.
The Texas football program has probably seen some of the most bad luck since Mack Brown stepped down as head coach. In recent seasons, the team has been on the losing end of several one score losses. Some of its opponents have seen better results in games decided by eight points or less.
The TCU Horned Frogs won quite a few close games. It catapulted the team to a national championship appearance. Albeit, the team shouldn’t get too comfortable in close matchups as fortunes often reverse for teams that play within a score.
Baylor is the perfect example of tight game success in one season bringing bad luck in the next season. Under different coaches, the team won several games by a touchdown or less in 2019 and 2021 to propel itself to the conference title game. The following seasons (2020 and 2022) saw the Bears suffer multiple close losses, as the team regressed to the mean in close contests.
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Here’s a look at how Big 12 teams fared in highly contested matchups in 2022.
TCU Horned Frogs
Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. on Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022.
Record in one-score games: 6-1
What it means: The Horned Frogs were exceptionally lucky in 2022 as they tempted fate in seven close matchups and emerged victorious in six. Head coach Sonny Dykes will have to navigate the 2023 season without Heisman candidate quarterback Max Duggan and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley along with several other departures. Look for TCU to have less success in close games this season.
SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK
Record in one-score games: 0-5
What it means: The Sooners were one of the more unlucky teams in college football last season. Losses to West Virginia and Texas Tech involved controversial endings. Head coach Brent Venables has yet to beat a single team by eight points or less. And while that could be indication of room for growth in game management, the team’s luck should improve in 2023.
Iowa State Cyclones
Cyhawkfootball 20220910 Bh
Record in one-score games: 1-6
What it means: Iowa State was just a bad football team last season. They weren’t good enough to capitalize on one-score opportunities. After beating the Iowa Hawkeyes, the team went winless in such games against Big 12 foes. The Cyclones might need an offseason of development to secure close victories moving forward.
Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 3-2
What it means: Kansas State was who we thought they were last season. The 3-2 record leads one to believe the team didn’t benefit that greatly from lucky bounces in its Big 12 championship winning season. The Wildcats should contend for the conference again this year.
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 2-5
What it means: Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian probably has room of his own to grow in game management after the team struggled to win closer games last year. The optimistic view of the result suggests the Longhorns could be due for a breakout season in tight contests next year. Consistency from his starting quarterback Quinn Ewers could mean he has the quarterback edge in every regular season game next season.
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 2-2
What it means: Kansas went .500 last season which suggests the team’s results were legit in its bounce back campaign. Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold will hope for more success in such games in the future.
Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 3-1
What it means: The Mountaineers took care of business in close matchups last season which suggest the team’s coaching staff did fairly well in such games. Given the program’s lack of year-to-year improvement, it will be worth monitoring whether or not the team is bought in enough to duplicate that success.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
March 23, 2023, at Sports Performance Center.
Record in one-score games: 4-0
What it means: Texas Tech was one of the more lucky teams in the conference last year. Its wins over Texas and Oklahoma were among the more unlikely outcomes we’ve seen in recent conference games. The Red Raiders should be good this season, but could see regression in games decided by eight points or less.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Bedlam Football
Record in one-score games: 2-3
What it means: Oklahoma State was a train wreck in the second half of the season. The losing record in tight matchups is consistent with the team’s overall performance on the year. Like Iowa State, there’s going to have to be systemic improvement across the board for more close victories.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 2-3
What it means: As we mentioned before, Baylor excelled in games that went down to the wire in 2021. Nevertheless, if you keep allowing teams within striking distance, eventually you’re going to lose. The Bears could see improvement in this area alone next year.
Gabriel Mayberry-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 3-2
What it means: BYU tends to bring chaos in games against Power Five conference teams, which makes the school a perfect fit for the Big 12 conference. Performing around .500 is consistent with what you might expect from the Cougars. The team should be in the top half of the league if Kedon Slovis fits in the offense.
UCF Golden Knights
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 3-2
What it means: UCF capitalized on early close bouts but still finished around even in those games. Innovative head coach Gus Malzahn and quarterback John Rhys Plumlee could give the team a winning record in tight ball games in their new conference.
Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Record in one-score games: 5-3
What it means: Houston played until the final bell in eight games but emerged with two more wins than losses. The record could drop against better competition in a new conference.
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Record in one-score games: 3-3
What it means: Cincinnati went an even 3-3 last season. Albeit it did so with a different coach and a different team than it will have in the fall. The Bearcats could lose in heartbreaking fashion in their new league.
