How every No. 1 overall QB who started Week 1 has fared over the course of their careers
How every No. 1 overall QB who started Week 1 has fared over the course of their careers originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
How will Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, but really Caleb Williams) fare as a rookie QB? That’s the question in Chicago following the trade that sent Justin Fields to the Steelers. With Fields in Pittsburgh, there’s no longer even a shred of doubt that the Bears will select a new rookie QB this year. However, debate remains as to whether that rookie can succeed from day one, or if that rookie is doomed to the same fate as every other quarterback in Chicago since Sid Luckman.
Here’s a comprehensive list of every QB selected with the No. 1 overall pick who started Week 1 of their rookie season (since 1967 when the NFL/AFL drafts merged), and how they fared.
TERRY BRADSHAW - 1970 STEELERS
Hall of Famer
Super Bowl appearances: 4
Super Bowl wins: 4
Super Bowl MVPs: 2
MVPs: 1
Pro Bowls: 3
All-Pros: 1
Record: 107-51
Passing yards: 27,989
TDs: 212
INTs: 210
Rushing yards: 2,257
Rushing TDs: 32
Bradshaw is the poster child for patience with No. 1 picks– a theme that will come up over and over in this list. He struggled early in his career and was even benched partway through his rookie season. Bradshaw regained his starting job in 1971, and won his first Super Bowl win after the 1974 season. However it took him until 1975 to have more TDs than INTs.
JIM PLUNKETT - 1971 PATRIOTS
Super Bowl appearances: 2
Super Bowl wins: 2
Super Bowl MVPs: 1
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pros: 0
Record: 72-72
Passing yards: 25,882
TDs: 164
INTs: 198
Rushing yards: 1,337
TDs: 14
A rare instant-hit, who cooled off considerably after his rookie season. Plunkett got hurt in 1975 and was eventually benched. The Pats traded him to the 49ers in 1976, and two years later he signed on with the Raiders as a backup. Plunkett was eventually thrown back into starting duties in 1980 and ended up leading the Raiders to a Super Bowl victory– the first ever for a Wild Card team. That kicked off the best stretch of his career in his mid-30s.
STEVE BARTKOWSKI - 1975 FALCONS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 2
All-Pros: 0
Record: 59-68
Passing yards: 24,124
TDs: 156
INTs: 144
Rushing yards: 239
TDs: 11
Our first QB on the list who never made it to a Super Bowl, despite several seasons with good numbers. Bartkowski led the NFL with 31 TDs in 1980 and followed that up with 30 in 1981, but he had some stinkers in the playoffs and had a lifetime 1-3 record in the postseason.
JOHN ELWAY - 1983 BRONCOS
Hall of Famer
Super Bowl appearances: 5
Super Bowl wins: 2
Super Bowl MVPs: 1
MVPs: 1
Pro Bowls: 9
All-Pros: 3
Record: 148-82-1
Passing yards: 51,475
TDs: 300
INTs: 226
Rushing yards: 3,407
TDs: 33
Elway famously forced his way off the the Baltimore Colts– the team that drafted him– like one subsection of Bears fans fears might happen with Williams. It turned out to be a great decision for Elway, even though he went through as bad of a debut as one can imagine. In his very first start, Elway completed just 1-8 passes for 14 yards, with an interception and four sacks. The Broncos benched Elway and backup Steve DeBerg led the team to a comeback victory. The team stuck with Elway in Week 2, but he was once again benched for DeBerg, and DeBerg once again led a comeback victory. DeBerg was eventually named the starter.
The Broncos gave Elway the reins again in his second year, and from there he performed at the level he’s known for today. In the 15 seasons from 1984-1998, Elway and the Broncos had a losing record just once. Interestingly though, the two Super Bowl wins came in the last two years of his career.
TROY AIKMAN - 1989 COWBOYS
Hall of Famer
Super Bowl appearances: 3
Super Bowl wins: 3
Super Bowl MVPs: 1
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 6
All-Pros: 0
Record: 94-71
Passing yards: 32,942
TDs: 165
INTs: 141
Rushing yards: 1,016
TDs: 9
Aikman is a unique figure on this list, since he had to beat out another rookie, Steve Walsh, to win the Cowboys starting job. He may have preferred to sit on the bench a year though. The Cowboys were terrible in his rookie season, and they went 0-11 with Aikman under center. Things (obviously) improved after that disastrous introduction to the NFL, but injuries derailed his progress early in his career. Aikman finally put together a full season in 1992, which culminated in his first of three Super Bowl wins. The Cowboys waived Aikman in 2001 to avoid paying him a $7 million roster bonus and to avoid a seven-year contract extension from going into effect. They’ve been looking for postseason success ever since.
JEFF GEORGE - 1990 COLTS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pros: 0
Record: 46-78
Passing yards: 27,602
TDs: 154
INTs: 113
Rushing yards: 307
TDs: 2
Our first real bust on the list. One season leading the league in passing yards, and one 8-2 campaign with the Vikings are two standouts in what was otherwise a lackluster career. He finished with a losing record as the starting QB in nine of his 12 seasons.
DREW BLEDSOE - 1993 PATRIOTS
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 4
All-Pros: 0
Record: 98-95
Passing yards: 44,611
TDs: 251
INTs: 206
Rushing yards: 764
TDs: 10
Bledsoe found quickly with the Patriots. He led the NFL with 4,555 yards in his second season and was named to his first of four Pro Bowls that year. Bledsoe led the team to one Super Bowl following the 1995 season, but his four interceptions played a big role in the team’s loss to the Packers. He was injured near the start of the 2001 season and was replaced by some no-name QB, Tom Brady. From there, Bledsoe’s days in New England were obviously numbered, but he did help the team on one last Super Bowl campaign. When Brady was hurt in the 2001 Championship game, Bledsoe came in, threw for 102 yards and a touchdown, and helped the Patriots win. Bledsoe enjoyed some good moments with the Bills and Cowboys from 2002-2006, but by then his heyday was behind him.
PEYTON MANNING - 1998 COLTS
Hall of Famer
Super Bowl appearances: 4
Super Bowl wins: 2
Super Bowl MVPs: 1
MVPs: 5
Pro Bowls: 14
All-Pros: 10
Record: 186-79
Passing yards: 71,940
TDs: 539
INTs: 251
Rushing yards: 667
TDs: 18
One of the best to ever do it, and he had one of the worst ever starts to a career, too. Manning led the league with 28 interceptions as a rookie as the Colts went 3-13. Still, it was clear Manning had what it took to be great as he also led the league with 575 pass attempts, racked up 3,739 passing yards and a second-place finish in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.
After that, Manning was pretty much unstoppable. He led the NFL in completions and touchdowns four times, and led the league in yards and QB rating three times. Manning also holds the NFL record for most passing TDs in a single season (55), most passing yards in a season (5,477) and is tied for the most passing TDs in a single game (7).
DAVID CARR - 2002 TEXANS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pros: 0
Record: 23-56
Passing yards: 14,452
TDs: 65
INTs: 71
Rushing yards: 1,328
TDs: 9
Without a doubt, the biggest bust on the list. The Texans didn’t give Carr much help (he was sacked a whopping 249 times over the course of his five years in Houston), but he never elevated the team either. He lost twice as often as he won over his career, and was relegated to backup duties only by his sixth season in the league.
MATT STAFFORD - 2009 LIONS
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 1
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 2
All-Pros: 0
Record: 98-107-1
Passing yards: 56,407
TDs: 357
INTs: 180
Rushing yards: 1,315
TDs: 15
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Stafford struggled mightily throughout his rookie season. A recurring shoulder injury derailed his sophomore campaign, but he finally put together a winning season in year three. While Stafford led the Lions to three postseason appearances, they didn’t win consistently with him under center. The team traded him to the Rams in 2021, and Stafford immediately broke through for his first Super Bowl appearance and win. His 307.9 yards/game in the playoffs are the most in the NFL among QBs with at least 150 playoff pass attempts.
SAM BRADFORD - 2010 RAMS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pros: 0
Record: 34-48-1
Passing yards: 19,449
TDs: 103
INTs: 61
Rushing yards: 340
TDs: 2
The first player on our list to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Bradford set the record for most completions (354) and attempts (590), and put up 3,512 yards and 18 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. That helped the Rams improve from 1-15 in 2009 to 7-9 in Bradford’s first season. Unfortunately numerous injuries held Bradford and the Rams back in the following years. He bounced around the league after four seasons in St. Louis and never managed to win consistently as a starter.
CAM NEWTON - 2011 PANTHERS
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 1
Pro Bowls: 3
All-Pros: 1
Record: 75-68-1
Passing yards: 32,382
TDs: 194
INTs: 123
Rushing yards: 5,628
TDs: 75
Newton was an instant hit in the NFL, becoming the first rookie QB to throw for over 400 yards in Week 1 with a 422-yard performance. He bested himself with 432 yards in Week 2. By the end of the year, Newton set two more records. His 4,051 passing yards were the most in a rookie season and his 14 rushing touchdowns were an NFL record for all quarterbacks, not just rookies. In year five, he led the Panthers to a 15-1 record and a Super Bowl berth, but he was bested by Von Miller and the vaunted Broncos defense. His 75 career rushing TDs remain an NFL record for QBs.
ANDREW LUCK - 2012 COLTS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 4
All-Pros: 0
Record: 53-33
Passing yards: 23,671
TDs: 171
INTs: 83
Rushing yards: 1,590
TDs: 14
One year after Newton set a rookie record for passing yards in a season, Luck broke the record with an incredible 4,374 yards. There was no slow start for Luck. He led the Colts to 11-5 records in each of his first three seasons, but Brady and the Pats beat the Colts in the playoffs in each of those three years. Unfortunately injuries ruined Luck’s career after 2015 and he shockingly announced his retirement just weeks before the 2019 season began.
JAMEIS WINSTON - 2015 BUCCANEERS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
All-Pros: 0
Record: 34-46
Passing yards: 22,104
TDs: 141
INTs: 99
Rushing yards: 1,214
TDs: 11
Winston had the worst possible outcome for his first pass as a pro: he threw a pick-6 to Coty Sensabaugh to put the Bucs in an early hole. He rebounded right away, however, and ended up putting up big numbers over his rookie season. Winston finished 2015 with 4,042 passing yards, 22 TDs and just 15 interceptions en route to his lone Pro Bowl bid. His biggest season came in 2019 with a league-leading 5,109 yards. However it also came with a league-leading 30 INTs. In 2020, the Bucs jumped at the opportunity to sign Tom Brady (understandably). Since then Winston has largely worked as a backup for the Saints. This year he’ll work behind DeShaun Watson in Cleveland.
KYLER MURRAY - 2019 CARDINALS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 2
All-Pros: 0
Record: 28-36-1
Passing yards: 15,647
TDs: 94
INTs: 46
Rushing yards: 2,448
TDs: 26
Murray had one of the best starts to a career for a No. 1 overall quarterback, with an Offensive Rookie of the Year award, followed by Pro Bowl nods in 2020 and 2021. His propensity for flashy scrambles and big throws, coupled with his atypical low interception numbers for a young QB made it look like he was going to be the next big thing in the NFL. But Murray tore his ACL partway through the 2022 season, stunting his development at least temporarily.
JOE BURROW - 2020 BENGALS
Super Bowl appearances: 1
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
All-Pros: 0
Record: 29-22-1
Passing yards: 14,083
TDs: 97
INTs: 37
Rushing yards: 605
TDs: 10
Like Williams, Burrow was considered a no-doubt No. 1 pick back in 2020. He was delivering on those lofty expectations in his rookie season before an ACL injury ended his campaign early. When Burrow returned, he was better than ever and won Comeback Player of the Year while leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl. Burrow played great in the big game, but Stafford and the Rams edged him out for the win. Unfortunately, Burrow suffered a calf injury and a wrist injury in 2023, which set him back once again. When he’s healthy, he’s the only man in the NFL who can consistently top Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs head-to-head.
TREVOR LAWRENCE - 2021 JAGUARS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 1
All-Pros: 0
Record: 20-30
Passing yards: 11,770
TDs: 58
INTs: 39
Rushing yards: 964
TDs: 11
We’re now entering the “small sample size” portion of the list. Lawrence was the no-doubt No. 1 pick the same year that Fields fell to the Bears. Like Fields, he’s had his ups and downs, but unlike Fields his starting job is not in jeopardy. Lawrence led the Jaguars on an incredible turnaround in 2022 when they started 2-6, then finished with a 9-8 record and a division title. Last season, the Jags and Lawrence couldn’t improve from 2022 and missed the postseason.
BRYCE YOUNG - 2023 PANTHERS
Super Bowl appearances: 0
Super Bowl wins: 0
Super Bowl MVPs: 0
MVPs: 0
Pro Bowls: 0
All-Pros: 0
Record: 2-14
Passing yards: 2,877
TDs: 11
INTs: 10
Rushing yards: 253
TDs: 0
Like many rookies before him, Young had a terrible year in his NFL debut. It’s far too early to write him off as a bust, especially considering the Panthers’ roster was bereft of talent last season.
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